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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

Anti Marine Layer

By Anti Marine Layer
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by The Ms. Anthrop,

Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts. 

insta pin. glorious cloud pics!

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Posted by Gradient Keeper,

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

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Posted by ajreich,

NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
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Posted by BLI snowman,

18 at PDX. First low in the teens there since January 2017.
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Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm a

OysterPrintout
OysterPrintout

WHAT an event. Huge overperformance for us at this location. Measured 5.5" of snow. Just incredible.   

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

Saw this posted on social media. 

Posted Images

TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea feels like this whole thing falling apart less than 24 hours before it begins. A bit disappointing. 

It can change but I’m definitely not feeling as optimistic now about it. If it doesn’t work out atleast it snowed decent yesterday morning here and we weren’t shut out with this round of winter weather. 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Radar shows green over me. I see nothing. I assume dry air killing it. I have no clue. DP is 24

Definitely dry air and offshore flow... precip should be very light in our area today.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, Cloud said:

RIP. At least a little bit of snow that hasn't melted off yet is surviving.

I am waiting for the ECMWF... the 06Z run was still good for the Seattle area.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am waiting for the ECMWF... the 06Z run was still good for the Seattle area.

It’d be one thing if it was just one or two models that looked bad, but basically all of them sh*t the bed this morning. Hard for me to imagine the euro doesn’t follow along as well…but it’s been a pretty fun few days IMBY regardless of what happens tomorrow. 

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FroYoBro Grand Master

FroYoBro

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hrrr looks fairly juicy down here tonight, I just don’t think it’s cold enough in the lower elevations for accumulating snow. 

Yeah, we actually did have some decent precipitation at the right time of 4am-8am here. It was just a little too warm and mostly rain. 
 

I don’t expect to see any sticking snow at my spot for the rest of the season. 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

ECMWF did terrible with temps this morning.   The 06Z run showed upper 20s at SEA and out here at 8 a.m. and its actually 37 at SEA and in North Bend right now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big changes... GFS shows Seattle in the 40s tomorrow with a south wind while its snowing to the north.    00Z GFS showed temps in the mid 30s tomorrow in Seattle.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7639600.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7628800.png

Wow looks pretty cold down here tomorrow. It’s almost like the energy splits and the puget sound gets missed. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM... appears to be much warmer for tomorrow and also has northerly track.

gem-all-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7639600.png

8-12” here. Wtf. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow looks pretty cold down here tomorrow. It’s almost like the energy splits and the puget sound gets missed. 

Just noticed that too... very strange.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted

Looking like the house will get a couple inches this morning. Driving me crazy not to be there!! 

Insane difference between there and work, just some patches of snow at work and 34 degrees with some flurries and at home it was 31 and snowing with snow on the trees and about 4 inches left in the shade from yesterday.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF did terrible with temps this morning.   The 06Z run showed upper 20s at SEA and out here at 8 a.m. and its actually 37 at SEA and in North Bend right now.  

I think the difference tonight will just come down to elevation now where that was not as much of a concern with past runs.

Still a cold trough and its going to be at night. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Really hard to tell what’ll happen now, but I’d be worried if I lived south of Everett at this point. Models seem to be latching on to not showing much in the Puget sound. 

Honestly i think tonight will be a good event above about 500ft for most places but below that will just be a crap shoot.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Fircrest Proficient

Fircrest

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I'm surprised there have not been more snow reports from the south and west Sound regions. Radar shows a precip shield there.

Nothing here in Tacoma even though the radar has been showing snow and the phone app says it's snowing, haha.  Dry air and offshore flow doing it's thing I guess.

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted
Just now, TacomaWx said:

It’s pretty much everywhere south of Everett that’s in trouble as of this morning. When all the models shifted this morning that’s a pretty strong signal that this is going to bust IMO. 

Yep, going to need some elevation with this one. These systems have heavy moisture rates normally and it is a cold storm so the snow level will drag down pretty good i'd imagine.,

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Timmy Supercell Grand Master

Timmy Supercell

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Phil said:

I think late March could be interesting for some early season severe. Some more zonal momentum will get into the CONUS after the mid-March cold wave.

I remembered there was severe wx at the end of Feb 2017.. what was that summer like out here? I know it was a torch in the PNW. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17
Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep, going to need some elevation with this one. These systems have heavy moisture rates normally and it is a cold storm so the snow level will drag down pretty good i'd imagine.,

I think it’s a combo of temps and precip being an issue for folks near the sound and I-5. Like others mentioned the models show the band breaking apart as it moves in…without the heavier precip rates the temp doesn’t drop as much and it ends up just being flakes in the air or cold rain. 

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SouthHillFrosty Grand Master

SouthHillFrosty

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep, going to need some elevation with this one. These systems have heavy moisture rates normally and it is a cold storm so the snow level will drag down pretty good i'd imagine.,

Yea I think above 750 should be good. Just getting a little cold rain this morning and 34.9 degrees

Edited by SouthHillFrosty
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