St Paul Storm Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 0z NAM going a bit west no? E IA crusher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 If I get 25.3" tomorrow as the NAM shows I'll just retire from storm tracking as it will never get better than that. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112500/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 0z NAM going a bit west no? E IA crusher.Absolutely did. Northern dry air mass didn’t really move so the cutoff is more or less the same. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4")   Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Literally like 30 mile shift is all I need Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 3k NAM is showing .74" of freezing rain accumulation in Iowa City which is destroying the snow output. That's not going to happen obviously as there isn't expected to be much if any freezing rain.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Literally like 30 mile shift is all I need10 mile shift here. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Â (1/1: 6.4") Â Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Nam models are heart breaking here Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Latest hrrr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 3k NAMÂ http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018112500/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 It’s looking like Omaha people and myself will be rooting for a small shift north by 20 miles. Crazy and painful watching just how close we are from cashing in big. Just don’t shift 20 miles the other way and give me nothing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Currently I'll cling to the hrrr lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 That cutoff in Central and Eastern IA is nuts. If it's similar to that, someone is going to have the weather heartbreak of their life. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"  2018-19: 55.5"  2019-20: 17.6"  2020-21: 49.4"  2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DszV63hWwAIs7iT?format=jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Currently I'll cling to the hrrr lolI agree, those recent NAM model runs are a bit frustrating for all of us in Omaha. However I could totally see us getting the shaft once again, ugh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 @ Tom Meanwhile, east I sit on the sidelines just hoping to get a decent track (not much north of I-70). The 18z GEFS seem to be pretty much set up to IL, and east of there spread increases but still look to target a KTOL destination. That should be far enough south of mby to get in on decent snows but still waiting for something other than the Euro to show that.  Also, even tho the SLP isn't shown to weaken, the 10m winds in SMI are a fraction of what they are in NE to NIL. Any thoughts on that part of the storm? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I’m hoping for this system to laugh in the face of GRR forecasters who are acting like this will be nothing in Mid-Michigan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 On a side note, I don't think I've ever seen 60 users in here at one time?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)Â Â Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Â Â Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Â Dec: 7.5Â Jan: 31.7 Feb:Â 6.0 Mar: 4.3Â Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2"Â (Harrison):Â 2023-24 = 53.1"Â Avg = 45.0"Â (KDTW):Â 2022-23 = 33.5"Â Â 2021-22 = 35.6"Â Â Â Â Avg = 49.7"Â (KRMY):Â 2020-21 = 36.2"Â Â 2019-20 = 48.0"Â Â 2018-19 =Â 56.1"Â Â 2017-18 =Â 68.3"Â Â Â 2016-17 =Â 52"Â Â Â 2015-16 =Â 57.4"Â Â Â 2014-15 =Â 55.3"Â Â Â 2013-14 =Â 100.6"Â (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Â Â 2012-13 =Â 47.2"Â Â Â 2011-12 =Â 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Everyone I’ve talked to near Grand Rapids don’t even know a storm is coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 @ Tom Meanwhile, east I sit on the sidelines just hoping to get a decent track (not much north of I-70). The 18z GEFS seem to be pretty much set up to IL, and east of there spread increases but still look to target a KTOL destination. That should be far enough south of mby to get in on decent snows but still waiting for something other than the Euro to show that.  Also, even tho the SLP isn't shown to weaken, the 10m winds in SMI are a fraction of what they are in NE to NIL. Any thoughts on that part of the storm?I’d wait and see what the Euro shows tonight before jumping to any conclusions. That model has the best physics. As for wind, we have a frictionless lake which aides in maximizing wind production. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I agree, those recent NAM model runs are a bit frustrating for all of us in Omaha. However I could totally see us getting the shaft once again, ugh.I should accept it because I have see it all to often. Worse then following noreasters when I lived in DC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 wow new nams get msn in snow again? any truth to it who knows???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Everyone I’ve talked to near Grand Rapids don’t even know a storm is coming. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I’m hoping for this system to laugh in the face of GRR forecasters who are acting like this will be nothing in Mid-Michigan How long have you been around there/SWMI? This is the classic GRR has their head up their a$$ scenario. Seems like every time we get a big dog on a holiday this happens. Happened for New Years Eve '13, Superbowl Storm '15, and now this at Thanksgiving weekend. I guess they aren't Chicago so they don't have to hear any outcry from millions of peeps. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 @ Tom Meanwhile, east I sit on the sidelines just hoping to get a decent track (not much north of I-70). The 18z GEFS seem to be pretty much set up to IL, and east of there spread increases but still look to target a KTOL destination. That should be far enough south of mby to get in on decent snows but still waiting for something other than the Euro to show that.  Also, even tho the SLP isn't shown to weaken, the 10m winds in SMI are a fraction of what they are in NE to NIL. Any thoughts on that part of the storm?I also think the storm maximizes it’s strengh before hitting MI. You can see the low get stretched out a tad as it crosses into MI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Everyone I’ve talked to near Grand Rapids don’t even know a storm is coming.  You're laughing, but it's total BS that they don't at least have a SWS high-lighting the risk over their entire CWA. Totally unacceptable imho Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I also think the storm maximizes it’s strengh before hitting MI. You can see the low get stretched out a tad as it crosses into MI. Interestingly, a long-time Met was saying that should actually aid in the warm layer collapsing rapidly eastward, allowing a faster change-over. He thought 8-12" across SMI was a reasonable call. As you've said, we'll see soon enough. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I should accept it because I have see it all to often. Worse then following noreasters when I lived in DC.Outside of the Christmas Eve surprise snowstorm a few years ago, the Omaha metro seems to be getting missed more and more by the big storms... last year it was to the north, and this year it’s to the south. I am not gonna complain because there’s nothing we can do about it, and it’s way too early in the Winter season to get too frustrated about missing out on a snowstorm. Still some time for this thing to come north a bit and get the Omaha metro in on a little action (even though my gut instinct says we are going to get an inch or two at best). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 My relatives were driving back from Lincoln today to Central Nebraska. They said all the overhead signs said blizzard warning coming at midnight. Shout out to Nebraska Department of Roads for getting the word out. Our town was just nuts today at grocery stores and gas stations. A blizzard warning gets people’s attention around here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I’m hoping for this system to laugh in the face of GRR forecasters who are acting like this will be nothing in Mid-Michigan See my other post, but this is also a GRR thing, especially down here in their SE counties (aka non-LES counties). They turn a blind eye to synoptic events that don't reach up to GR proper. Idk how many times they finally issued headlines or upgraded to a Warning only after most of the damage was done. Happened with the Nov 29, 2011 storm now that I think back on it. Perfect example. This one's likely to actually hit up your way much worse than down here, so this WWA down-playing is a total head scratch 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 My relatives were driving back from Lincoln today to Central Nebraska. They said all the overhead signs said blizzard warning coming at midnight. Shout out to Nebraska Department of Roads for getting the word out. Our town was just nuts today at grocery stores and gas stations. A blizzard warning gets people’s attention around here.That’s good to hear... I know a lot of people altered their travel plans and traveled today instead of tomorrow. Definitely better to be more safe than sorry with storms like this. Even though it won’t be as bad here tomorrow the way it looks, I am planning on hunkering down at home and staying off the roads. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 True. They are actually talking up the lake effect that follows more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 That’s good to hear... I know a lot of people altered their travel plans and traveled today instead of tomorrow. Definitely better to be more safe than sorry with storms like this. Even though it won’t be as bad here tomorrow the way it looks, I am planning on hunkering down at home and staying off the roads.Good plan. I was also just thinking of the amount of college students that would be heading back to their colleges and universities tomorrow to end the Thanksgiving holiday break. I hope they left today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Euro blockbuster N Chicago-land Good lord. I am located dead on that 22. Where do I sign? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Call me crazy but I think the rain is transitioning quicker in central Nebraska. I checked ord and broken bow’s observations and they are reporting snow. That would be great for us further east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 RGEM is running. Another crush job for Iowa city and points on south in Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 ICONÂ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 RGEMÂ http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018112500/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 RGEM http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018112500/027/snku_acc.us_mw.pngWhich one is more reliable/closest to the euro?! I’ll take the rgem and run with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 18z Euro. Definitely not as north as every other model. Â 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 ..and you thought I was only kidding about a Low Party at my place 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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