Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 The 12Z ECMWF shows a warm conveyor belt of rain approaching the coast by next Sunday afternoon just like the 00Z run... basically dry for the next 8 days. Looks like the trough will actually move through by next Monday which should lower snow levels again. Looks like the 850's are pretty normal at day 10 with another storm heading our way. Normal December weather, in other words. High pressure is off to the east, so it doesn't look like it would split the next system, and with high pressure to the south, it looks like it would be heading our way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Spiders apparently are still surviving. How, I don't know. I just squished two on the window sill, it would be nice if I saw more centipedes but please there is a reason it's December now! Spiders should be extinct! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 17 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 I followed the cold front up the mountain yesterday. I started in Sandy around 5 when it was starting to really pour and began heading east on highway 26. Just after Sandy there was already a little snow in the rain. The mix of snow and rain kept up until I got to welches and the precip rate dropped and no snow was in the rain anymore. Nothing changed until I got up to silent rock and hit some decently heavy snow. The heavy snow kept going into government camp but the roads remained just slushy and no chains were needed. The snow stopped pretty quickly and they only picked up an inch or two up around 4000'. No more fell overnight either so another disappointer has happened. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 I followed the cold front up the mountain yesterday. I started in Sandy around 5 when it was starting to really pour and began heading east on highway 26. Just after Sandy there was already a little snow in the rain. The mix of snow and rain kept up until I got to welches and the precip rate dropped and no snow was in the rain anymore. Nothing changed until I got up to silent rock and hit some decently heavy snow. The heavy snow kept going into government camp but the roads remained just slushy and no chains were needed. The snow stopped pretty quickly and they only picked up an inch or two up around 4000'. No more fell overnight either so another disappointer has happened.You killed this forum and this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 I followed the cold front up the mountain yesterday. I started in Sandy around 5 when it was starting to really pour and began heading east on highway 26. Just after Sandy there was already a little snow in the rain. The mix of snow and rain kept up until I got to welches and the precip rate dropped and no snow was in the rain anymore. Nothing changed until I got up to silent rock and hit some decently heavy snow. The heavy snow kept going into government camp but the roads remained just slushy and no chains were needed. The snow stopped pretty quickly and they only picked up an inch or two up around 4000'. No more fell overnight either so another disappointer has happened. Given the high precip rates as that front passed the metro area I would have expected much better than 1-2 inches at 4000ft. Pretty lame. Seems like things just dried out very fast once it started to actually cool down. The sunset rest area on 26 @ 1400ft in the coast range was at 32-34F last night but there was very little moisture left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 You killed this forum and this winter.This winter was dead before it even started. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Given the high precip rates as that front passed the metro area I would have expected much better than 1-2 inches at 4000ft. Pretty lame. Seems like things just dried out very fast once it started to actually cool down. The sunset rest area on 26 @ 1400ft in the coast range was at 32-34F last night but there was very little moisture left.It seemed like the front died once it hit the cascades. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 It seemed like the front died once it hit the cascades.We’re in Government Camp right now. It seems pretty snowy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Live from Government Camp. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 18z was pretty awesome. Great mountain snow pattern in the long range. Good ensemble support as well. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 We’re in Government Camp right now. It seems pretty snowy.It's snowy but not the 6-10" that was predicted. It's 2 inches at best from what I experienced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 If this verifies, a legit SSW is probably going to happen. Perfect wave-1 conduit right here. And well-timed! 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 I don’t want to jinx it, but man, the modeled long range pattern is a wave activity machine. I actually think this is going to happen. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Live from Government Camp.273A0995-F5F7-448F-BC23-613B322F9DB6.jpegBack in 1979 I used to ski down to Goverment camp on the Glade trail and have a Huge yummy maple bar at Huckleberry inn! High schoole days in the ski club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 I don’t want to jinx it, but man, the modeled long range pattern is a wave activity machine. I actually think this is going to happen. Are there any indications as to where any subsequent arctic outbreak is likely to go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Are there any indications as to where any subsequent arctic outbreak is likely to go?So many potential variables..I have no idea. My guess is that, if Arctic air is to affect the West, it will happen before January 10th. Forcings turn unfavorable from 1/10 to 2/5, SSW or not, so it would probably have to happen before then. Though anything can happen when you blow up the vortex, so my projections could be wrong. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 It seemed like the front died once it hit the cascades. Yeah, I see only 5 inches reported at Mt Hood meadows in the last 48 hours. Quite paltry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 41/32 here today. Good start to December! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 All this and it's still only day one, guys! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Had a high of 44 which is the coldest yet. Good to see. My dad just got a gig in Bend so he will be commuting back and forth over Santiam Pass starting Dec 10. Time for him to get his tires changed. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 If this verifies, a legit SSW is probably going to happen. Perfect wave-1 conduit right here. And well-timed! Do you think the SSW could result in a legit arctic blast into the PNW later in December and or early January? I recall you said SSW are really good for bringing arctic air into the PNW during +ENSO's? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Had a high of 44 which is the coldest yet. Good to see. My dad just got a gig in Bend so he will be commuting back and forth over Santiam Pass starting Dec 10. Time for him to get his tires changed.We got up to a toasty 45* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 So many potential variables..I have no idea. My guess is that, if Arctic air is to affect the West, it will happen before January 10th. Forcings turn unfavorable from 1/10 to 2/5, SSW or not, so it would probably have to happen before then. Though anything can happen when you blow up the vortex, so my projections could be wrong.After 1/10 during an El Nino is the beginning of Spring for the PNW. I am actually liking the long range pattern being shown since it would probably bring a lot of snow to my area. And if it leads to a legit arctic outbreak for the PNW, even better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 It's snowy but not the 6-10" that was predicted. It's 2 inches at best from what I experienced.The sno tel site above Government Camp is reporting 19”, but a lot of that was already on the ground before the latest batch, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 After 1/10 during an El Nino is the beginning of Spring for the PNW. I am actually liking the long range pattern being shown since it would probably bring a lot of snow to my area. And if it leads to a legit arctic outbreak for the PNW, even better.I don't think this will be a full Nino. Or follow any norms even if it is... because of low solar. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Getting ready to go over blewit pass towing a 14k load and it looks f***** nasty up there. Should be fun. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 I don't think this will be a full Nino. Or follow any norms even if it is... because of low solar.I hope you're right. Certainly much weaker than two years ago. Though at least in that year the mountains, an MBY had a good snowpack until mid January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Getting ready to go over blewit pass towing a 14k load and it looks f***** nasty up there. Should be fun. Compact snow and ice, still snowing, and chains required for a load your size. Be careful. Blewett is not nice at all during snow. And a lot of traffic may be coming from Leavenworth, so the roads could be busy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 I don't think this will be a full Nino. Or follow any norms even if it is... because of low solar.Jim already threw climo out the window a few years ago. Follower. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 The sno tel site above Government Camp is reporting 19”, but a lot of that was already on the ground before the latest batch, I think.3” officially at skibowl at 5000’ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 3” officially at skibowl at 5000’20 years ago it would have been 5000” officially at 3’. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 20 years ago it would have been 5000” officially at 3’.At least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Wow it was gnarly up there. Probable worst conditions I've seen up there in few years. Looks like 12 inches new and that's a big storm for that pass. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Looks like the bulk of the rain goes south again with this latest GFS run. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 GEM showing a freezing rain event in a week for the Portland area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 00z is pretty decent again in the long range. Could we be setting up for a big Christmas and new Years? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 December 1 and the snow is deeper on blewett pass than it is on Snoqualmie. Anyone ever seen that? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 00z is pretty decent again in the long range. Could we be setting up for a big Christmas and new Years?Could be two major holidays within a week of each other with weather on both. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Quite a bit of cold onshore flow in the extended of the 18z FV3. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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