January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I am just wondering if Tim has ever been wrong?!

I don’t think so. Not hard to imagine him coasting to re-election in 2020 at this point.

[Deweydog]

We should petition to extend February to 31 (oh hell let’s do 32) days and also get rid of daylight savings time! BAM!

Shave 3-4 days off July at the same time and we’ll be set!

 

#endlesswinter

[MossMan]

Breezy and dry at the moment. Windy overnight, didn’t loose power though. However as I was driving back from Skykomish yesterday for work and was listening to the traffic report and they mentioned trees down across the road at Lake Goodwin, and sure enough I called my dad who lives just down the road from the lake house and he said they were yet again without power. Sounds like it was out for about 10hrs. Been a windy few weeks now!

[TT-SEA]

I am just wondering if Tim has ever been wrong?!

 

 

My wife will tell you "yes".  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I've been in 2 Avalanches when i was riding alot of back country snowmobiling. My inflating back pack saved my life. They are f***** scary.

[Lisa0527]

Any thots on the Euro. To my very untrained eye it looks a little colder on Monday, and further south...

[jakeinthevalley]

Wind storm and heavy rain for San Francisco on Sunday... it has trended south like people wanted.  

 

Well, since the CFP  championship is on Monday in Santa Clara, that may make for an interesting game

[Jesse]

My wife will tell you "yes".

So likeable!

[ShawniganLake]

Any thots on the Euro. To my very untrained eye it looks a little colder on Monday, and further south...

Fairly dry Monday, 500ft snow levels? Low cuts off offshore by Tuesday and pumps the ridge along the coast.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Tuesday evening:

 

[TT-SEA]

So likeable!

 

She loves me!

 

I think most wives will say their husbands are often wrong.   

[HighlandExperience]

Weak winter.

[Phil]

We should finally start seeing anomalous blocking soon. Where it sets up shop remains to be seen but I like the PNW chances as good as anybody to score late January into early February.

If the polar blocking is truly steroidal (like Jan 1969) then anything is possible.

 

The tropical forcing looks horrible after the upcoming week, but with the gradual trend to -AO and amplified waves across the hemisphere, you can always “luck” into something with timing, even under a crappy background state (since the jet/storm track will be suppressed to the south and the Pacific Hadley Cell will be narrowing).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weak winter.

 

Very. I have spring fever like you would not believe right now. This winter cannot end soon enough.

[Phil]

Have to give credit where credit is due. While the spatial orientation of the wave station is different, the 2006/07 analog that Flatiron mentioned could end up being a solid hemisphere-wide representation of the seasonal cycle of the NAM/boreal winter forcing.

 

Though there are lower frequency differences that are distinct and may favor continued or stronger +ENSO through 2019 and into next winter.

[Front Ranger]

Very. I have spring fever like you would not believe right now. This winter cannot end soon enough.

 

 

Oh, Andrew.

[TT-SEA]

Very. I have spring fever like you would not believe right now. This winter cannot end soon enough.

 

 

Just noticed that our daffodils are up!  

[Esquimalt]

Have to give credit where credit is due. While the spatial orientation of the wave station is different, the 2006/07 analog that Flatiron mentioned could end up being a solid hemisphere-wide representation of the seasonal cycle of the NAM/boreal winter forcing.

 

Though there are lower frequency differences that are distinct and may favor continued or stronger +ENSO through 2019 and into next winter.

2006-2007 had some great snowfall events up here, nada this winter. 

[Phil]

Windy out there this morning. There’s a tree down across the power lines not too far from here. You’d think the last storm would have taken care of the weak trees.

It’s an enigma sometimes. Different wind directions, the duration of said winds, and even the amplitude of the gusts relative to the sustained winds can bring down trees that otherwise would have been fine. Not to mention variations in rainfall over time/season, soil temperature profiles, progression of fungal diseases such as root rot, or just bad luck with tree sway resonance.

 

Just has to be the right combo. And each tree has its own formula. Around here it’s the direction of the wind and soil properties that are responsible for ~ 90% of downed trees.

[Deweydog]

Very. I have spring fever like you would not believe right now. This winter cannot end soon enough.

I can think of 384,528 reasons to hope this winter sticks around a little while longer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Oh, Andrew.

 

I have a week in Oklahoma coming up the end of this month. Given their bipolar climate it will either be sunny and 65 or snowing. Then a little over a week in Arizona in March. CANNOT wait for that warm sunshine. 

[MossMan]

Very. I have spring fever like you would not believe right now. This winter cannot end soon enough.

Can’t wait to go to the boat show later this month...that always gets my spring fever going!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Avalanche control is actually a real concern.

 

Much of Whistler was closed yesterday for that very reason. Too much snow!

Mt. Baker ski area once closed for two days because of too much snow. Took them that long to dig out. Almost 20 feet fell in one two week stretch.

 

https://snowboarding.transworld.net/photos/the-winter-of-9899-baker-gets-too-much-of-a-good-thing/

[Phil]

[Phil]

Winter just f**king started. The US was still in a humid summer pattern 10 weeks ago, when a 155mph Cat4 hurricane slammed into the Gulf Coast.

 

Who could possibly want a return to that stagnant nonsense?

[ShawniganLake]

Winter just f**king started. The US was still in a humid summer pattern 10 weeks ago, when a 155mph Cat4 hurricane slammed into the Gulf Coast.

 

Who could possibly want a return to that stagnant nonsense?

Our winter midpoint is right about now. But you already know that.

[Phil]

Our winter midpoint is right about now. But you already know that.

But your summer midpoint is very late.

 

Sort of bizarre to be rooting for spring just a few weeks after the winter solstice unless your name is Tim.

[ShawniganLake]

But your summer midpoint is very late.

 

Sort of bizarre to be rooting for spring just a few weeks after the winter solstice. Unless you’re Tim, lol.

Yes. You’re right. We can often have very long stretches of spring like weather. Sort of irrelevant to the point, that winter is not just starting here. Average temperatures start climbing within the next few days.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks splitty going forward.

[Phil]

Yes. You’re right. We can often have very long stretches of spring like weather. Sort of irrelevant to the point, that winter is not just starting here. Average temperatures start climbing within the next few days.

So you start rooting for spring right smack dab in the middle of the coldest part of winter?

 

Please tell me you’re just fooking around.

[TT-SEA]

Daffodils poking up right now.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

So you start rooting for spring right smack dab in the middle of the coldest part of winter?

 

Please tell me you’re just fooking around.

I guess it depends on how he defines winter.  If he thinks winter for the next couple of months is just the same crap weather, then I can understand.  I used to live in Western Washington, and you do get tired of the weather when there is no hope for snow.  

[BLI snowman]

So you start rooting for spring right smack dab in the middle of the coldest part of winter?

 

Please tell me you’re just fooking around.

 

If it's this clear that the winter isn't going to perform at all then why not? It's a pretty lost cause at this point. Onto 2019-20.

[Phil]

And since when do temps/snowfall ever follow the averages to a tee?

 

Right now the NPAC jet/Hadley Cell is in an intraseasonal state of expansion/poleward displacement which just happens to coincide with the midwinter period. This will be reversing from mid-month onward.

 

Who knows what will happen once the -AO gets going and the jet becomes suppressed? Not impossible to fluke into something if enough cold air can pool into SW-Canada via the E/NE flow underneath the polar block.

 

Just need the Pacific jet to back off so it’s not all blasted eastward.

[ShawniganLake]

I guess it depends on how he defines winter. If he thinks winter for the next couple of months is just the same crap weather, then I can understand. I used to live in Western Washington, and you do get tired of the weather when there is no hope for snow.

I’m not really rooting for anything and I think Andrew was probably exaggerating to some degree. But I totally agree with you on this

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

I’m not really rooting for anything and I think Andrew was probably exaggerating to some degree. But I totally agree with you on this

 

 

I am not sure he is exaggerating his desire to go on vacation to warm sun.   That is pretty universal around here in the winter... even if your name is not Tim.   

 

We are very excited to be in Hawaii in a little more than a month.  

[MossMan]

So you start rooting for spring right smack dab in the middle of the coldest part of winter?

 

Please tell me you’re just fooking around.

With being midway through winter already and nothing on the horizon it is a let down. February has delivered much more frequently than January for the last 30yrs or so...so there is that. But it sure would be nice to score big while sun angles are not a factor.

[TT-SEA]

I thought that was a bison in the background for a split second.

 

 

No bison here.   Although we do have lots of elk.   

 

That is just a big landscaping rock.  

[GHweatherChris]

#emojioverload