Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[East Dubzz]

We have about 2” here based on the finger measurement method.

 

And now that things are rolling & im back home with the porch light on, no more looking at the radar. I always consider it a bad omen.

[ToastedRavs]

Just under 5" here. Not bad all things considered. Should be able to cross 5 later tonight. Wind is a bigger issue out in the rural areas. Last storm's snow was so compact and hard, a lot of this is blowing causing some 2 to 3 ft drifts. Ah, winter is here!

[Jaycee]

Looking forward to a snowy weekend. Still sticking with double digits this side of the lake.

I’m in between Evanston and downtown — ripping insanely good here but we’re on the edge of the heavy stuff right now. I think I’m sitting pretty tho! If I can even get 6” I’ll be happy

[East Dubzz]

Flakes have remained pretty small, but I’m pretty impressed with how well it’s accumualting. Probably helps that it’s so fluffy and barely compacting.

[Tom]

Just measured 0.6” of powder on my deck. This stuff is high ratio.

[Stormy]

I measured 1.5” about 20 minutes ago at which time the rate had increased a bit.

[Madtown]

4ish maybe 5...shoveled off the ice rink and it was way deeper than expected think my 3 earlier may have been off

[Tom]

Lake bands are embedded with the synoptic snows near MKE...I can point out 2 different bands...one on the N Side and the other just S of the city...

 

[Minny_Weather]

Can't wait to go back to Lincoln tomorrow and play in the 12-18" of snow that fell.

[Bryan1117]

Can't wait to go back to Lincoln tomorrow and play in the 12-18" of snow that fell.

Haha, oh man it’s amazing!

[Stormhunter87]

Hey now we have some snow flakes falling now.

[Madtown]

decorah ia has to be getting slammed

[snowstorm83]

Haha, oh man it’s amazing!

I can't believe you missed it just to go to lame Fargo. What a shame.

[indianajohn]

Hahaha.... Not one single flake yet!!!

[Minny_Weather]

I can't believe you missed it just to go to lame Fargo. What a shame.

Lincoln has 2 more inches on the year than Fargo and the exact same depth atm. This has been an astronomically bad year for Fargo.

 

I can't believe I missed it either.

[VMB443]

Lake bands are embedded with the synoptic snows near MKE...I can point out 2 different bands...one on the N Side and the other just S of the city...

 

Just got back from downtown Milwaukee - legit snowstorm down there, streets messy and snow coming quickly. I’m west of there and I’d say we have 2” or a tad more here, downtown has a good three I would say, maybe a bit more.

[jaster220]

Gonna be a bit north? Rumor is pressure falls wound indicate such. Anyone with a map willing to post? Thx

 

[tbone8]

Hahaha.... Not one single flake yet!!!

Very lite here...

[jaster220]

3z HRRR looks awesome along 94 corridor. Would be yet another NWS (headline) fail if it were to verfiy

 

[Hawkeye]

I measured about 2.2" at 9:45pm, a bit disappointing.  I don't think we've been getting the rates necessary for any real impressive totals.  The flakes have been small throughout.  I think we'll do well to get 5 out of this.  As someone above posted, they are really getting slammed up in far northeast Iowa.  Somebody always get slammed, but it's never the Cedar Rapids area.  It doesn't help this is a night storm, so I haven't even seen much.  I was downstairs watching my tv shows for a few hours this evening.

 

Radar suggests the rates should gradually fall from here as the back edge approaches.

[jaster220]

Gonna be a bit north? Rumor is pressure falls wound indicate such. Anyone with a map willing to post? Thx

 

Screenshot_2019-01-18 Tracking the Storms Updated Images ( Radar-Satellite-Pressure-temps etc ) This thread is ALWAYS Up to....png

 

Also noted that the 1032mb pressure line north in Canada is quite a bit north of what prior model runs were forecasting.

[Stacsh]

3z HRRR looks awesome along 94 corridor. Would be yet another NWS (headline) fail if it were to verfiy

 

Screenshot_2019-01-19 pivotalweather - Models HRRR.png

Pixie dust here. But judging by the radar. High end of 1-3” forecasted looks right. Congrats to those along I94. Should do great!

[Tom]

1.2” tally thus far and snowing at a clip of 1/2” per hour....hitting the sack soon and I’m encouraged at how the radar looks to the SW.

[jaster220]

0z NAM very solid and aligns with HRRR

 

(Kuchera)

 

[Grizzcoat]

With maybe a few more tenths ; going to end up between 5 and 6" here on the S side of DSM and about 7" on the ground.  Not the 8" that was the last NWS forecast but it sure beats what the models where saying 24 hours ago.

On to the next storm. 

[jaster220]

Pixie dust here. But judging by the radar. High end of 1-3” forecasted looks right. Congrats to those along I94. Should do great!

 

Thx Stacsh. Tbh, this is the last-minute turn about I'd been hoping for. Otherwise, it wasn't looking very good. Crappy luck so far up your way tho. Hopefully things will get going for your region soon

[Stacsh]

Thx Stacsh. Tbh, this is the last-minute turn about I'd been hoping for. Otherwise, it wasn't looking very good. Crappy luck so far up your way tho. Hopefully things will get going for your region soon

It’s rare we end up with the short end overall compared to everyone else in the winter. So no more complaints. Even though is been historically bad here. It will snow if it’s cold. We will get ours.

[East Dubzz]

Time to go to bed. Don’t know for sure how much we’ll end up with, but it sure is nice to see snow on the ground again. Hopefully this starts an active period for a while. Would be nice to actually see winter show up.

[Stormy]

I just measured again & I'm a little over 3". It's drifting a lot. 10 minute average wind speed is showing 21 mph. Likely a bit higher as some snow lodges in the wind cups.Ready to sleep now.

[jaster220]

It’s rare we end up with the short end overall compared to everyone else in the winter. So no more complaints. Even though is been historically bad here. It will snow if it’s cold. We will get ours.

 

Fwiw, GFS shows a strong LES signal from several events during the upcoming stretch. I'm not one to enjoy the teeth chattering cold, lol. Gotten soft moving down out of the Northland plus these warm winters since Feb '15 released it's vice grip. Last Christmas to New Yrs was cold but hardly remember it being that bad for some reason. Also, The Mitt looks balmy compared to those everywhere around us. One positive for me at least it won't be -30F

[Jaycee]

This snow is absolutely ripping right now! I think we deff get 8” minimum when all is said and done. Loving what I’m seeing so far up here on the north side of Chicago!

[jaster220]

This snow is absolutely ripping right now! I think we deff get 8” minimum when all is said and done. Loving what I’m seeing so far up here on the north side of Chicago!

 

Photos??

 

Scored the rare two-period "100/100" in my grid today

 

 

[hlcater]

Models keep snow around until 6 am but at the rate we're going, I am not seeing that. I have just over 4" at my location as of midnight. I'm not being very precise because it's hard to with all the blowing. Perhaps another inch. Mayyyybe 2 more if things do, in fact, hold on a little longer.

[Jaycee]

52809A91-7E24-46E9-A286-30ED1DD0811B.MOV

 

 

Sorry about the terrible quality!! Hopefully you can see

[ToastedRavs]

Pretty much done here. Few flurries and some freezing drizzle to coat the top. Best I could do with the wind and all was 5.3". So almost a foot in the past week. Have to take that any day, any week! Good luck out east of here!

[Hawkeye]

Models keep snow around until 6 am but at the rate we're going, I am not seeing that. I have just over 4" at my location as of midnight. I'm not being very precise because it's hard to with all the blowing. Perhaps another inch. Mayyyybe 2 more if things do, in fact, hold on a little longer.

 

Considering I only had a bit over 2 a 9:45pm and the rates have likely been no better than 0.5"/hr, I probably only have 3.5".  Given the radar, we only have an hour of decent snow remaining.  This is looking like a pretty big disappointment.  Either the qpf or the ratios crapped out on us.  I had planned to go out and measure again, but I really don't feel like it anymore.  I think I'll just hit the sack and measure the lousy few inches in the morning.

 

Seriously, it's f'n amazing how difficult it is to get heavy rates around here.  In all but the biggest storms, 0.5"/hr is about the best we can do.

[hlcater]

Considering I only had a bit over 2 a 9:45pm and the rates have likely been no better than 0.5"/hr, I probably only have 3.5".  Given the radar, we only have an hour of decent snow remaining.  This is looking like a pretty big disappointment.  Either the qpf or the ratios crapped out on us.

 

Yea for my "official" amount I'm gonna have to measure like 10 separate spots in my yard. I didn't even measure my last report, I just kinda eyeballed it. I'm gonna assume the ratios were the issue as flake size was pretty underwhelming for the duration of the event. Should top off between 5 and 6 inches here. I will be extremely, extremely surprised if we pass 6". 

 

As an aside: I always seem to end up with a few tenths to a 1/2 inch more than you do. It's probably not blind luck or difference in location. How do you measure your snow? 

[hlcater]

As an entirely separate observation, many stations including Des Moines are still reporting light snow despite no returns on radar. There'll probably be some flurries through morning sure, but as Hawkeye said, there's probably only 1-2 hours or so of accumulating snow left.

[Hawkeye]

As an aside: I always seem to end up with a few tenths to a 1/2 inch more than you do. It's probably not blind luck or difference in location. How do you measure your snow? 

 

I usually use snow boards in my enclosed backyard.  When it's windy, the boards become useless.  Earlier this evening the board measurements were all about 2.2", but who knows what it'll be like in the morning.

[jaster220]

Classic presentation of a Mid-Lat winter storm