February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[snow_wizard]

18z Ensembles are incredibly cold. At PDX -9.1C Monday evening, -9.5C Thursday morning, and -7.5C on the 4th. 

 

Probably as cold as anything so far with this ongoing event.  Never seen the likes of this.

[jakeinthevalley]

Stick with the GOLU, my friend.

Streetlights will be your friend

[Kayla]

I wanna know why there were 200 users on here at times during the Feb 10th-12th but we can't even get 100 users on here now.

 

Come on PDX peeps, time to step it up!

[Blizzard777]

Full disclosure. This is the period of time before a storm I start to get pessimistic so I don't get my hopes up to high.

Apparently I’m not pessimistic , I brought my big snow shovel and generator from home to PDX. I’m excited!!!

All in!

[Kayla]

Not going to be in range for at least a day though...

 

It's in range now but we need Rob.

[snow_wizard]

Nice write up by Jaya in the Seattle discussion, very reasonable.

 

Reasonable?  At a time like this?  Impossible!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z euro??

[snow_wizard]

I wanna know why there were 200 users on here at times during the Feb 10th-12th but we can't even get 100 users on here now.

 

Come on PDX peeps, time to step it up!

 

Good question.  Part of it is an increasing number of people are getting burned out on the cold.  Shocking I know...obviously something that would never happen with the regulars on here.

[Deweydog]

I wanna know why there were 200 users on here at times during the Feb 10th-12th but we can't even get 100 users on here now.

 

Come on PDX peeps, time to step it up!

The PS region is a heavily-populated, anxiety-ridden place.

[joaqweri]

18z euro??

18z euro went south. 1-2" for seattle, 2-4" for portland.

[GHweatherChris]

Reasonable? At a time like this? Impossible!

He has class!

[Perturbed Member]

I wanna know why there were 200 users on here at times during the Feb 10th-12th but we can't even get 100 users on here now.

 

Come on PDX peeps, time to step it up!

 

Lots of PDX people were also online before that event in hopes we might get something. There is little hope of this working out for most of WA now, a lot of the posters from up there probably aren't either bothering to look. 

[Requiem]

18z euro went south. 1-2" for seattle, 2-4" for portland.

This thing is going so far south /:

[GHweatherChris]

Looking forward to see what happens tonight, temp is holding at 37, did not go up after last batch of showers and coverage should increase overnight.

[Prairiedog]

The PS region is a heavily-populated, anxiety-ridden place.

Looking up and staring non stop at contrails will also cause anxiety and knowing that we might only have 10-12 years to live will cause extreme anxiety.  It happens to us valley maggots a lot.  We have little to live for.

[Requiem]

Does someone have a snowmap for the 18Z Euro just to see how drastic the shift is?

[TT-SEA]

18z euro went south. 1-2" for seattle, 2-4" for portland.

 

 

I assume the Seattle snow comes tomorrow morning right?

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah if Portland is getting 2-4 inches it seems unlikely any precipitation from Monday would go past Olympia

[joaqweri]

18z euro snowmap for everyone who asked, this is out to 10pm monday night

[Requiem]

18z euro snowmap for everyone who asked, this is out to 10pm monday night

F***. That’s not good for us.

[TacomaWaWx]

Way south, pretty much in thinking with all of the other models

[GHweatherChris]

F***. That’s not good for us.

Watch your mouth

[joaqweri]

F***. That’s not good for us.

none of this has been good for SEA snowfans since last night's euro

[Requiem]

Watch your mouth

This thing is falling apart on us, a bit difficult not to be frustrated with the models. It’s always either too north or too south.

[Perturbed Member]

18z Euro puts the bullsye from like Grants Pass to Eugene. Pretty crazy.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You're right, I'm just surprised at the persistence of the GFS and it's ensembles, and some of the mesoscales agree. Temps are all that I'm worried about at this point, considering its +7 here.

 

I'm less worried about temperatures here, but I'm on a hill away from the water so it tends to cool down rapidly with precipitation and NE winds. I could see temperatures being more of an issue downtown and near sea level. I'm most concerned about precipitation intensity, it could easily start out good to the north then fall apart right as conditions are primed for something good here. If we get sustained precipitation tonight snow will work its way down to sea level.

 

Currently 5.8C here, but there may be at least some glimmer of hope; the winds have shifted to ENE at least a few hours before they were forecast to do so. The low may be a bit south of where it was modeled.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is about how accurately models have been. Shotgun approach with the low.

[snow_wizard]

18z euro snowmap for everyone who asked, this is out to 10pm monday night

 

Looks better for up here oddly enough.

 

Where do you get the 18z Euro maps?  I have a weatherbell account but can't find them on there.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like most people in the region are atleast gonna see some light snow potentially the next few days, considering it’s late February this is great, a month ago everyone didn’t think they would have a chance at any snow

[wxmet]

Different pattern leading to a different outcome than previous events. Who would have thought.

[Esquimalt]

I'm less worried about temperatures here, but I'm on a hill away from the water so it tends to cool down rapidly with precipitation and NE winds. I could see temperatures being more of an issue downtown and near sea level. I'm most concerned about precipitation intensity, it could easily start out good to the north then fall apart right as conditions are primed for something good here. If we get sustained precipitation tonight snow will work its way down to sea level.

 

Currently 5.8C here, but there may be at least some glimmer of hope; the winds have shifted to ENE at least a few hours before they were forecast to do so. The low may be a bit south of where it was modeled.

also working for us is the fact that environment canada believes it's going to be showers all night.  

[Perturbed Member]

The GFS continues to absolutely kick the crap out of the euro with this. Which isn't great if you in PDX now. Hopefully 00z EURO doesn't turn this into a Redding snowstorm!

[TT-SEA]

Looks better for up here oddly enough.

 

Where do you get the 18z Euro maps?  I have a weatherbell account but can't find them on there.

 

Most of the snow being shown up here is not with the main event.   The 12Z ECMWF showed some snow today across most of King County.   That did not happen.   And it showed some more tonight and tomorrow.   

[snow_wizard]

The NWS forecast is surprisingly wet / snowy for Seattle for much of next week.  I'm far from sold there will be that much moisture.  I also disagree with the rain they are forecasting for Wednesday night.  The models are clear the air mass will be very cold at that time with weak offshore flow.

[GHweatherChris]

Smells like snow!!

[Esquimalt]

The NWS forecast is surprisingly wet / snowy for Seattle for much of next week.  I'm far from sold there will be that much moisture.  I also disagree with the rain they are forecasting for Wednesday night.  The models are clear the air mass will be very cold at that time with weak offshore flow.

Environment canada pulled the same stunt, showing chances of showers from Wednesday on.  I just don't see that in any of the models. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Some of these showers up around Parksville are going to loop back this evening when it's a little colder. Could be good for a few inches of snow up there overnight:

 

http://webcam.beachacresresort.com/webcam/current.jpg

[TacomaWaWx]

Will see if it will actually be cold enough for snow to fall the next 24 hours, hopefully it is

[Phil]

Anyone else tracking the mother of all US blizzards that’s about to annihilate the lake effect belts?

 

70-90mph winds, several feet of snow, thunder/lightning, all preceded by a severe squall line and balmy temps. One of the most incredible storms you can get. I’ve been tracking it obsessively all week. Jealous af.

[Requiem]

Moral of the story I guess is to not get so excited. Was great while it lasted on the models,