Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Dorian is just starting to develop an eye. Just going to intensify further. Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits The GFS forecasts nearly uniform flow with height in #Dorian's environment Monday evening, indicating a highly favorable environment for strengthening as the storm approaches the northern Bahamas. Dangerous situation unfolding https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167462758281043968 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Week-2 EPS looks pro-Tim/anti-Phil/anti-Jesse. FWIW. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Just going to intensify further. Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits The GFS forecasts nearly uniform flow with height in #Dorian's environment Monday evening, indicating a highly favorable environment for strengthening as the storm approaches the northern Bahamas. Dangerous situation unfolding https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167462758281043968Yeah, I don’t like this at all. Furthermore, there’s a ULL/PV anomaly oriented perfectly upstream (tonight) relative to the track axis to ventilate the storm’s outflow. Many of the most notorious Atlantic storms in history have had similar features present. I think the diurnal maximum tonight could see this thing make a run at high-end cat4 status. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 And keep in mind Dorian is still a relatively small storm (in terms of the radius of the primary/int circulation) at this point, so it can wrap up/intensify more quickly than a larger/wider storm. Think of Wilma (in the Caribbean) in 2005, or the infamous Labor Day hurricane in 1935. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 12z GFS shows a bit more of a northerly track. for our nw later summer weather? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Partly sunny and 66 here now... looks like we picked up .15 overnight. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 00Z ECMWF manages to hit the entire SE US coastline with Dorian... GFS agrees with same track! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 12Z ECMWF is still offshore with Dorian on Tuesday morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 And the 12Z ECMWF shows it staying just offshore as it moves northward by Wednesday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 12Z ECMWF shows Dorian missing the entire FL and GA coastline... SC and NC would be more vulnerable with this track as the storm maintains strength on its northward trek and those states are far enough east to get in its path. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Picked up 0.06" here from the monsoons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Definitely a touch of fall in the air leaving the house this morning! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted August 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Here’s a picture of Mt Shasta taken by me on August 24. Clear blue skies in a region where wildfires are notoriously frequent. Remember all the hysteria about how this was going to be a horrible fire season? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 5F746ACC-4957-4FE2-934B-1EFA01930C8B.jpeg Here’s a picture of Mt Shasta taken by me on August 24. Clear blue skies in a region where wildfires are notoriously frequent. Remember all the hysteria about how this was going to be a horrible fire season?I remember all the hysteria. Turns out that July and August weather can mitigate dry spring weather and completely nullify a fire season. As I suspected. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Amazingly... the 12Z ECMWF misses the entire East Coast. Dorian never makes landfall on this run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 CNN, TWC and Fox News vote NO on that solution. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Definitely a touch of fall in the air leaving the house this morning!This recent turn of events has really helped alleviate some of my pent up rage toward the f*ggots making those observations last week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Amazingly... the 12Z ECMWF misses the entire East Coast. Dorian never makes landfall on this run. Non event. Forks. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 5F746ACC-4957-4FE2-934B-1EFA01930C8B.jpegHere’s a picture of Mt Shasta taken by me on August 24. Clear blue skies in a region where wildfires are notoriously frequent.Remember all the hysteria about how this was going to be a horrible fire season?And Shasta Lake is full according to that shot !!! So many trips down south over the past 30 years and watching this Lake slowly dry up! So glad Mother Nature has balanced things out once again. Absolutely beautiful area to explore and have fun. Fun note: my buddy and I buried a treasure chest down there long long ago and it included a playboy magazine. We dug it up 10 years later and playboy book was gone (deteriorated) but plastic things remain. We buried the chest again and haven’t tried to relocate since. Castle Craig’s was a great day hike as well with beautiful views! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Lol Beatdown! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Here’s a picture of Mt Shasta taken by me on August 24. Clear blue skies in a region where wildfires are notoriously frequent. Remember all the hysteria about how this was going to be a horrible fire season? No. I do remember concerns about drought, because it was happening after another very dry late spring. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Beatdown!My comment got more attention than I thought it would, pretty funny actually!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 My comment got more attention than I thought it would, pretty funny actually!!Do you have any proof that you were the one who made that comment? 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted August 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 And Shasta Lake is full according to that shot !!! So many trips down south over the past 30 years and watching this Lake slowly dry up! So glad Mother Nature has balanced things out once again. Absolutely beautiful area to explore and have fun. Fun note: my buddy and I buried a treasure chest down there long long ago and it included a playboy magazine. We dug it up 10 years later and playboy book was gone (deteriorated) but plastic things remain. We buried the chest again and haven’t tried to relocate since. Castle Craig’s was a great day hike as well with beautiful views!That’s Lake Siskiyou, not Shasta Lake. Although I do believe Shasta Lake is full. And yeah, great area to explore and hike. Unfortunately didn’t go to Castle Crags but I did go to Burney Falls, McCloud Falls, and Mossbrae Falls. Didn’t go to Lassen NP either but I hear it’s beautiful. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Do you have any proof that you were the one who made that comment?7:29 AM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 7:29 AMStill see no evidence. I need ID, passport, credit card information, psychological background, and a stool test. Ty 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Still see no evidence. I need ID, passport, credit card information, psychological background, and a stool test. Ty I can overnight the stool sample. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 I can overnight the stool sample. Awesome, we got a lab back in North Bend that can get that done ASAP. Your cooperation is appreciated! 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 CNN, TWC and Fox News vote NO on that solution.Ha, I’ll bet Jeff Zucker and Anderson Cooper are dressed in black robes performing ancient chants and throwing hexed objects into a fire as we speak. Anything to avoid such a “disastrous” outcome. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 August has been on quite the warm streak. 2019 makes 8 in a row that have had widespread warmer than normal anomalies for the PNW. Leading up to that, 2006-2011 were all cool or about normal for the western lowlands. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 August has been on quite the warm streak. 2019 makes 8 in a row that have had widespread warmer than normal anomalies for the PNW. Leading up to that, 2006-2011 were all cool or about normal for the western lowlands.Nice month. It rained, it summered, it thundered... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted August 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 College football about to start up again tonight. Clouds burned off. 77F in downtown Springfield. Good day. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 18Z GFS shows Dorian moving right along the entire SE US coastline. It literally follows the coastline perfectly from Palm Beach to Virginia Beach. That would be a disaster scenario... and very expensive. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Scary first set of recon obs...the pressure has plummeted down to 950mb, which is a drop of 20/6hrs..yikes. Winds up to 111kts in the SE eyewall..with stronger winds likely to be measured in the NE eyewall shortly. Should reach cat4 status tonight. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 August has been on quite the warm streak. 2019 makes 8 in a row that have had widespread warmer than normal anomalies for the PNW. Leading up to that, 2006-2011 were all cool or about normal for the western lowlands.. How does Olympia look? Also is there a reliable station up north with a long history and not affected much by UHI? Last question where do you go to look up this stuff. I have a few places I go to but it’s hard to look up on my phone quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 Low clouds are thickening up in the middle of the afternoon... instead of burning off. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 18Z GFS shows Dorian moving right along the entire SE US coastline. It literally follows the coastline perfectly from Palm Beach to Virginia Beach. That would be a disaster scenario... and very expensive. Frying Pan Cam time! We won’t hope for that scenario. I’m good with it hanging off the coast a ways Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted August 30, 2019 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 High 75* low 63* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 . How does Olympia look? Also is there a reliable station up north with a long history and not affected much by UHI? Last question where do you go to look up this stuff. I have a few places I go to but it’s hard to look up on my phone quickly. https://wrcc.dri.edu/summary/Climsmwa.html Olympia may see their coolest August since 2012. Which isn't saying anything, really. Still almost two degrees over their long term average. If by up north you mean closer to the border, Clearbrook is a good rural station with a long, uninterrupted record in Whatcom County. A little further south you have Sedro Woolley and then closer to the Seattle metro you have Snoqualmie Falls and Monroe with long histories and fairly minimal UHI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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