Clinton Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 12z GFS mean 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 12z CMC mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Sure would be fun to see one of these ^^ in Iowa again someday. It’s been a long time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Sure would be fun to see one of these ^^ in Iowa again someday. It’s been a long time. Unfortunately, we know that if there is a huge, wrapped up low, a low track through Iowa is the law. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Euro brings the heaviest snow just to my west. Could be a fun weekend with lots of precipitation types. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Crazy I might have to worry about the rain/snow line in N. WI this time of year. I’ll make a $100 donation to a charity selected by the forum if Eagle River gets 6”+ out of this system and a $250 donation if I get 10”+. Might as well make it interesting and support a good cause during this awful December. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Wow look at all the rain, I hope it verifies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Crazy I might have to worry about the rain/snow line in N. WI this time of year. I’ll make a $100 donation to a charity selected by the forum if Eagle River gets 6”+ out of this system and a $250 donation if I get 10”+. Might as well make it interesting and support a good cause during this awful December.As if I didn’t already want this storm to pan out. That’s awesome! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 NWS Hastings mentions the lack of cold air as a big issue in this storm. Probably more of a rain/snow mix scenario with snow at the end. Several more days to monitor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 NWS Hastings Twitter storm information: https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1209599067312902145?s=21 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 18z GFS still cutting across IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Wow gfs trying to give Omaha big wrap around amounts. Two issues I see with that already. Gfs showed dry air which if it ramps up severe storms they will choke that out. Plus all the rain before will keep the ground warm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 I like how the 18z GFS slides the amped SLP across the Lakes. Just wish other models would follow suit. They all seem to show some kind of stalling/spinning/looping, but some are really janky and some like the GEM go out of their way to screw SMI of any flakes. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Won't be around tomorrow so,... Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah my li'l buddies!! 5 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 0z 12k NAM is a good hit around here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Icon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Wow, this is crazy. Most of the ski resorts in SE Wisconsin aren't even 100% open, and we're going to get an inch of rain right before their busiest time of year. Looking at totals, an inch of rain will come very close to completely taking out Wilmot until they can blow more snow. And there's absolutely zero decent 24+ hour stretches of sub-28 degree weather to blow snow. Mountain Top is almost definitely going down. Even think my home hill has some trouble. An inch of rain usually takes out a foot of man made snow on a ski hill. Most of the hills here have 12 to 20 inches. And they are probably being very generous with those numbers and not counting all the warm we've had. Going to be a sad time, an inch of rain could have been a lot of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 ICON blasts Central Nebraska. We’ll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 0z GFS looks very similar to the ICON. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 0z 12k NAM is a good hit around here.E4A0EAAB-8AA3-490A-8FCC-61EF1E2C73B3.png I like the early NAM look but it too was in the losing camp with last week's storm. Not saying that's the case now, since all models seem to be in agreement with the phase whereas last week, several were not. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Canadian puts freezing rain down here before snow. That would not be ideal with our hosting of relatives this weekend. I would say the ICON, GFS, and Canadian all now have a similar looking storm. Some variance on the rain/snow line, but I’m sure that will move around in coming models. I’d like to see the Euro tonight to compare. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 GFS and icon 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 00z UK 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Wow, this is crazy. Most of the ski resorts in SE Wisconsin aren't even 100% open, and we're going to get an inch of rain right before their busiest time of year. Looking at totals, an inch of rain will come very close to completely taking out Wilmot until they can blow more snow. And there's absolutely zero decent 24+ hour stretches of sub-28 degree weather to blow snow. Mountain Top is almost definitely going down. Even think my home hill has some trouble. An inch of rain usually takes out a foot of man made snow on a ski hill. Most of the hills here have 12 to 20 inches. And they are probably being very generous with those numbers and not counting all the warm we've had. Going to be a sad time, an inch of rain could have been a lot of snow.I hear ya! I'm a cross country skier and thanks to the hard work of dozens on volunteers as well as countless donors over the past several years Lapham Peak state park now has a 2.4 kilometer man-made snow loop. It is probably close to a two foot base which can handle several days of warm temps but an inch of rain will severely damage it or even decimate sections of it. It's like Mother Nature is just wanting to kick us while we're down. Feel bad for all the volunteers who put in so much time to make this possible. Just doesn't seem right but there is nothing we can do about it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Models tonight are phasing and cutting the storm even earlier. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Next Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Hey we will get some much needed rain so hold on a little and not onto the next! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 I hope the EURO is wrong, but there's really nothing to stop this storm from cutting right over top of me. Pathetic that we're going to waste such a massive precipitation maker on rain during the last week of December. Not the month I was looking for AT ALL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 The 00z Euro is showing a textbook Dakota's Blizzard...where did we see that before??? Rebuilding the Glacier up north... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 00z GEFS snow mean... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 06z GEFS mean... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 00z EPS mean 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 @ Clinton, this is trending towards the monster storm we have seen in previous cycles. My goodness, nearly all of those EPS members are massive hits for the Upper Midwest. It's really unfortunate blocking is non existent during this cycle. Hopefully some of our members can cash in on some snow. Needless to say, there is a beast in the making. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 @ Clinton, this is trending towards the monster storm we have seen in previous cycles. My goodness, nearly all of those EPS members are massive hits for the Upper Midwest. It's really unfortunate blocking is non existent during this cycle. Hopefully some of our members can cash in on some snow. Needless to say, there is a beast in the making.No doubt and good job on finding a harnonic. Where do you think we go from here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 No doubt and good job on finding a harnonic. Where do you think we go from here?You mean after this storm departs? Well, you pointed out that storm in early Jan which is being picked up by the Euro Op and now on the GEFS ensembles. I'm thinking this one has sights for our region during the opening days of Jan. I'll chime in more later today. Gotta get going in a bit and get ready for Christmas Mass at 7:30am. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Really hoping we can score some rain out of this one. This weeks weather has been amazing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 The GFS and WPC are consistently showing seasonally heavy rainfall for eastern Iowa though it shifted a bit further west lately. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 NWS Hastings morning disco says if the low tracks over Central Nebraska then the heaviest snow stays just to my west. However, they say if the NAN or GFS verifies, then the heavy swath of snow comes right over parts of Central Nebraska. Should be fascinating to see how this develops. Here is their words if it interests you. Precip: The main show is the Fri-Sat system. The EC ensemble meanalong with the 12Z/00Z runs are the best case scenario forkeeping svr winter wx out of most of the CWA. Extrapolation of the90 hr 18Z EC run is supportive. That consensus is for the 500 mblow to track just W of the CWA. That is a warm track and meanslots of rain. If the EC is right...some thunder would be psbl.Wintry precip would probably only affect LXN-ODX. The more Ern track offered by the NAM/GFS seems less likely...butit would put the swath of accumulating snow acrs the CWA...possibly buffered by frzg rain/ice in the transition to rain. QPF: regardless of what type(s) of precip fall...odds favor aheavy precip event. Odds are high that the entire CWA measures atleast 0.50"...but a large swath of the CWA could see at least 1"of rain or liquid equivalent. Wind: If the EC ends up right with a sub-990 low occluding over MN...Sun and Sun night could be very windy with G45-55 MPH. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 NWS Hastings Twitter information. https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1209812067407953920?s=21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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