Tom Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 00z GEFS trending NW and following the EPS..once inside Day 5, the King is the way to go... 06z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Interesting to note, but there are several GEFS members showing spotty snows around the MW when the storm occludes. Also, the LES signal for our MI members could provide some snows. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Interesting to note, but there are several GEFS members showing spotty snows around the MW when the storm occludes. Also, the LES signal for our MI members could provide some snows. Hawkeye mentioned a secondary piece of energy rounding the base, this happened the last time we saw this storm. Could give some bonus accumulations to MW and GL. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Interesting to note, but there are several GEFS members showing spotty snows around the MW when the storm occludes. Also, the LES signal for our MI members could provide some snows. I would take 13 as it paints a dot over Grand Rapids lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 The NAM is really showing the secondary energy now. It's too bad the main plume of deep moisture has veered well east by this point. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 00z GEFS trending NW and following the EPS..once inside Day 5, the King is the way to go... 06z GEFS... Even more noticeable. That's a MASSIVE snow shield across the Canadian provinces! When are we going to get a bowling ball storm like that here in the CONUS?? 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 The NAM is really showing the secondary energy now. It's too bad the main plume of deep moisture has veered well east by this point. namconus_z500_vort_us_fh72-84.gif Some models had the secondary already a day or so ago. I think GEM or ICON was first to show it but with only 1 model doing so, I didn't make much of it. As for the moisture, yeah there's always something going wrong, eh? Edit: I see that indeed with most models, we do get the moisture over here in the MItt. But ofc, it's way too warm for snow. 0z Euro didn't really pop a secondary S of us here either so I'm waiting to see if the 12z joins the other models or not? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 GFS with 18" in North Platte. Not bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 GFS with 18" in North Platte. Not bad.Central and Western Nebraska crushed if GFS verifies. I do very well on this run. Comparing the last 3 runs I think it has come southeast a little. May be helping more of the people on here if that would continue. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 12z GFS. This would be a belated Christmas present. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 12z GFS instantweathermaps. Good to look at different ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Haven’t been following this closely, but based on what things look like now I’m kind of hoping we can melt the remaining snowpack before the rain. Too much water on frozen ground is bad in my yard. Strange I’d be rooting for snow melt in late Dec. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 12z GFS. This would be a belated Christmas present.DEF440D6-E88C-4D30-A3EA-D770F378D578.png Already under a Watch, maps continue to look interesting. You're having #funtimes. I've not had a Watch here in more than 3 yrs now. Enjoy whatever this brings. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Already under a Watch, maps continue to look interesting. You're having #funtimes. I've not had a Watch here in more than 3 yrs now. Enjoy whatever this brings.Yea, issued earlier this morning. Local news already talking about travel issues. Saw on social media people seemed stunned that a storm is coming. Maps look more and more promising from my area and west. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Hoping for an American model winner on this one, otherwise looks like mostly rain/ice for me. The gfs has been the most consistent so hoping the euro caves one more time in terms of the track. Nam would be ideal but so far it’s on its own in terms of that secondary low development. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Hoping for an American model winner on this one, otherwise looks like mostly rain/ice for me. The gfs has been the most consistent so hoping the euro caves one more time in terms of the track. Nam would be ideal but so far it’s on its own in terms of that secondary low development.Keep hope alive. It could all depend on 1-3 degrees either way on where that heavy snow line is. GFS and Canadian look golden for many. If we could have the Euro to come south and southeast just a little more I think we both do well. Of course how much falls as sleet/freezing rain will make the difference. Good luck bud. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 12z Canadian. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Hawkeye mentioned a secondary piece of energy rounding the base, this happened the last time we saw this storm. Could give some bonus accumulations to MW and GL. I would take 13 as it paints a dot over Grand Rapids lol. Can we compromise with #3? With the range being nada to 6+, this is a true wildcard potential. Just hoping the Euro joins the party for us WMI Peeps. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Hoping for an American model winner on this one, otherwise looks like mostly rain/ice for me. The gfs has been the most consistent so hoping the euro caves one more time in terms of the track. Nam would be ideal but so far it’s on its own in terms of that secondary low development. I remember the other storm went your way in the end. You were initially looking at WWA level event but ended up a Warning. You should at least get some action with this, which is better than most on here. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 12z GEFS trending NW and following the EPS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 A nice soaker for mby. Cool. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Some of the models this morning have backed off the influence of the second piece of energy. The Euro doesn't do much with it until it gets up to Lake Superior. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Well this is going to be a mess around here. Hopefully we can stay away from ice, that is never, ever, fun. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Haven’t been following this closely, but based on what things look like now I’m kind of hoping we can melt the remaining snowpack before the rain. Too much water on frozen ground is bad in my yard. Strange I’d be rooting for snow melt in late Dec.The Lakes for ice fisher people and such are screwed with 1-2' of rain. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 The Lakes for ice fisher people and such are screwed with 1-2' of rain. It looks like we’ll get dry slotted big time which will keep precip amounts down. But I was thinking the liquid precip will actually be good for re-doing the lake ice. The cross country skiers have left tracks in the snow and ice, and I’m hoping that’ll be fixed when the rain water freezes. Maybe that’s wishful thinking.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Have read the afternoon discos of NWS Goodland KS and North Platte NE. (Hastings isn’t out yet). They keep saying how hard this forecast is and with temps hovering just above or below 32 makes it even more difficult. This will probably be a nowcast as we go along. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 The Lakes for ice fisher people and such are screwed with 1-2' of rain. Mine is already done. They were out a good half a mile on the ice before. Now there's a couple people huddled 50 feet off shore. There is no way my hill will make it through this rain. I just got back, washed my car, and things are bad. They used to have two to three feet, now there's more like 6 inches to 18 inches. They can blow monday and tuesday night, at least accuwearther is lowering the lows those nights. This is supposed to be the busiest time of the year for outdoor winter activities. And the local TV stations are all bragging about how warm it is. EDIT: Thank goodness I don't go to Wilmot, they already have ground poking through their base and it hasn't even rainedyet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Here is the NWS Hastings afternoon disco for those interested. Kudos for how well written it is, even though they apologize for the difficult forecast challenges. Main focus for the entire 7-day forecast period continues to liein the Friday through Sunday time frame. Want to state up frontthat this forecaster`s confidence in things is not high...thereare still plenty of uncertainties with some pretty importantdetails. Folks should expect further adjustments in the forecast,so be sure to stay up to date with the latest. Because of thecontinued uncertainties in the forecast and collab with neighbors,no changes were made to the Winter Storm Watch currently ineffect for the NW half of the CWA. Compared to 24 hrs ago, models are in somewhat better agreement inthe bigger picture. The upper level low pressure system isexpected to slide into the Four Corners region by Friday evening,filling as it becomes influenced by the northern streamdisturbance moving out of the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies.Models show things being a little disorganized as we get intoSaturday, before a new organized low develops and moves outthrough the Central Plains Sunday. While there isn`t the spread inthe model tracks there has been, there is still a notabledifference...as the GFS continues to take a more southern-easterntrack than other models, which would result in more of our CWAbeing affected by a heavier snow band. Ahead of the passage of the main upper low, there`s no lack ofbroader scale lift across the region, with precipitation expectedto expand from SW-NE on Friday. At this point, most models keepthe first half of the day dry, with PoPs ramping up after 18Z.This swath of precipitation, which may be heavy at times, isexpected to continue through the Fri evening-overnightshours...with the axis of heaviest QPF currently forecast to lineup across the eastern half of the CWA. Precip chances continue oninto Saturday/Saturday night as the main upper low moves out ontothe Plains, and another uncertainty arises with how much of animpact the accompanying dry slot has on precip across the CWA.There are some big differences in models with whether there ismeasurable precip around all day Sat or if a solution like the18Z NAM pans out with little measurable precipitation. It`s notuntil Sunday that the main upper low pushes through the area, buthow quickly it exits is yet another question, with the potentialfor moisture/snow wrapping around the backside of the low. It maynot be until early Monday morning that precip finally pushescompletely E-NE of the CWA. As far as precipitation type goes...model track differences (evensmall ones) and thermal profile differences continue to throw abig wrench in things...and as stated above, there are a lot ofuncertainties yet. Current thinking has precip starting out Fridayafternoon as rain being the primary type, but some models arestruggling even in this period with whether a wintry mix ends upplaying a bigger role than what is in the forecast now. Thosequestion marks continue into Friday night, one big question beingwith where the transition zone between the warmer air to the eastand colder air the west ends up...at this point it looks to cutthrough the heart of the CWA. During the daytime hours onSaturday, there is the potential that a mainly rain p-type makes abit of a push north, but not enough to completely remove thewintry mix mention in the NWrn CWA. Saturday night-Sunday, thecolder air is finally making a better push in, and the precip typeshould transition over to all snow. Looking at amounts...there is still the potential for a prettyhefty axis of liquid by the time it`s all said and done (rain,melted snow/freezing rain/sleet). Current forecast has a slighteastward shift in that axis, basically along our counties east ofHWY 281. Current forecast has totals CWA-wide of at least aroundan inch, with that heavier eastern corridor closer to 1.5"(possibly more). Main questions are with ice amounts and snowamounts, which will depend on how the thermal profiles pan out.There is still the potential for roughly the northwestern 2/3rdsof the CWA to end up with anywhere from 0.05-0.25" of iceaccumulation, with lower amounts to the southeast. There was abigger change with the snowfall forecast amounts...not to soundlike a broken record...but there is a lot uncertainty with this.Where the heavier frontogenetic band sets up is still in question,but a blend of models focused more of that band over our NWrnCWA...adding a few inches onto the forecast for the Ord-Lexingtonareas. It`s still looking to be a pretty tight gradient across theCWA...little (if any) accumulation in the southeast corner tototals of 6+" in the northwest corner. What snow does fall with time Saturday and moreso into Saturdaynight-Sunday will have increasing northwesterly winds to furthercomplicate things. Sustained speeds of 20-25 MPH looklikely...combined with any falling snow would cause visibility andfurther travel concerns. Those traveling this weekend really needto stay on top of the latest forecast. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 As I've noticed, GRR sure has a lot of warmista Met's for an office that traditionally gets plenty of cold-n-snow -- Rain moves in Saturday night and SundayAs the vigorous upper low lifts northward into the upper GreatLakes on Saturday, a large batch of precipitation will move intoour area. Thankfully, since we`ll be on the warm side of thisstorm, everything that falls will be as rain. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 Might just be the NAM over-amped and NW at this range, but the 18z pops the secondary over Chicago vs east of the Mitt. I really need it more easterly if mby has any chance at meaningful snow outta the backwash from this storm. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 Might just be the NAM over-amped and NW at this range, but the 18z pops the secondary over Chicago vs east of the Mitt. I really need it more easterly if mby has any chance at meaningful snow outta the backwash from this storm. 20191026 18z nam h84.pngPerhaps a little more ESE. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 @ Clinton Anything new from the Euro bud? Missing your maps already Seems many/most models have the secondary spinning up near Superior and the period to watch for SWMI is mainly Mon overnight thru Tue. The 12z GEM's portrayal would actually be decent even down my way. Still a long ways to go and this will come down to SR models but at least there's a chance thus something to ponder. Not the BD I'd hoped to be tracking during my holiday recess, but sure beats nada Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 @ Clinton Anything new from the Euro bud? Missing your maps already Seems many/most models have the secondary spinning up near Superior and the period to watch for SWMI is mainly Mon overnight thru Tue. The 12z GEM's portrayal would actually be decent even down my way. Still a long ways to go and this will come down to SR models but at least there's a chance thus something to ponder. Not the BD I'd hoped to be tracking during my holiday recess, but sure beats nada 20191226 12z GEM Surf loop h114-144.gifI will try and post some later tonight or tomorrow morning I am riding back from Illinois with my folks and can't get any maps to post off my phone. As of now it looks like you may be able to pull an inch or two out of this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 @Tom, I know it's fantasy land but the GFS and EC have flashed a big storm around the 8th of Jan. It seems to look a lot like a storm we had around the 21st of Nov. Just wanted to see if this was one on your radar or not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 Here is the NWS Hastings afternoon disco for those interested. Kudos for how well written it is, even though they apologize for the difficult forecast challenges. Main focus for the entire 7-day forecast period continues to liein the Friday through Sunday time frame. Want to state up frontthat this forecaster`s confidence in things is not high...thereare still plenty of uncertainties with some pretty importantdetails. Folks should expect further adjustments in the forecast,so be sure to stay up to date with the latest. Because of thecontinued uncertainties in the forecast and collab with neighbors,no changes were made to the Winter Storm Watch currently ineffect for the NW half of the CWA. Compared to 24 hrs ago, models are in somewhat better agreement inthe bigger picture. The upper level low pressure system isexpected to slide into the Four Corners region by Friday evening,filling as it becomes influenced by the northern streamdisturbance moving out of the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies.Models show things being a little disorganized as we get intoSaturday, before a new organized low develops and moves outthrough the Central Plains Sunday. While there isn`t the spread inthe model tracks there has been, there is still a notabledifference...as the GFS continues to take a more southern-easterntrack than other models, which would result in more of our CWAbeing affected by a heavier snow band. Ahead of the passage of the main upper low, there`s no lack ofbroader scale lift across the region, with precipitation expectedto expand from SW-NE on Friday. At this point, most models keepthe first half of the day dry, with PoPs ramping up after 18Z.This swath of precipitation, which may be heavy at times, isexpected to continue through the Fri evening-overnightshours...with the axis of heaviest QPF currently forecast to lineup across the eastern half of the CWA. Precip chances continue oninto Saturday/Saturday night as the main upper low moves out ontothe Plains, and another uncertainty arises with how much of animpact the accompanying dry slot has on precip across the CWA.There are some big differences in models with whether there ismeasurable precip around all day Sat or if a solution like the18Z NAM pans out with little measurable precipitation. It`s notuntil Sunday that the main upper low pushes through the area, buthow quickly it exits is yet another question, with the potentialfor moisture/snow wrapping around the backside of the low. It maynot be until early Monday morning that precip finally pushescompletely E-NE of the CWA. As far as precipitation type goes...model track differences (evensmall ones) and thermal profile differences continue to throw abig wrench in things...and as stated above, there are a lot ofuncertainties yet. Current thinking has precip starting out Fridayafternoon as rain being the primary type, but some models arestruggling even in this period with whether a wintry mix ends upplaying a bigger role than what is in the forecast now. Thosequestion marks continue into Friday night, one big question beingwith where the transition zone between the warmer air to the eastand colder air the west ends up...at this point it looks to cutthrough the heart of the CWA. During the daytime hours onSaturday, there is the potential that a mainly rain p-type makes abit of a push north, but not enough to completely remove thewintry mix mention in the NWrn CWA. Saturday night-Sunday, thecolder air is finally making a better push in, and the precip typeshould transition over to all snow. Looking at amounts...there is still the potential for a prettyhefty axis of liquid by the time it`s all said and done (rain,melted snow/freezing rain/sleet). Current forecast has a slighteastward shift in that axis, basically along our counties east ofHWY 281. Current forecast has totals CWA-wide of at least aroundan inch, with that heavier eastern corridor closer to 1.5"(possibly more). Main questions are with ice amounts and snowamounts, which will depend on how the thermal profiles pan out.There is still the potential for roughly the northwestern 2/3rdsof the CWA to end up with anywhere from 0.05-0.25" of iceaccumulation, with lower amounts to the southeast. There was abigger change with the snowfall forecast amounts...not to soundlike a broken record...but there is a lot uncertainty with this.Where the heavier frontogenetic band sets up is still in question,but a blend of models focused more of that band over our NWrnCWA...adding a few inches onto the forecast for the Ord-Lexingtonareas. It`s still looking to be a pretty tight gradient across theCWA...little (if any) accumulation in the southeast corner tototals of 6+" in the northwest corner. What snow does fall with time Saturday and moreso into Saturdaynight-Sunday will have increasing northwesterly winds to furthercomplicate things. Sustained speeds of 20-25 MPH looklikely...combined with any falling snow would cause visibility andfurther travel concerns. Those traveling this weekend really needto stay on top of the latest forecast. wow that’s one heck of a write up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 wow that’s one heck of a write upI have to give them credit, they’ve really stepped their game up this winter. That’s what a forecast discussion should be, not something that’s read on the evening weather report. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 I have to give them credit, they’ve really stepped their game up this winter. That’s what a forecast discussion should be, not something that’s read on the evening weather report.The 00z NAM really went dry for Nebraska this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 The 00z NAM really went dry for Nebraska this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 The 00z NAM really went dry for Nebraska this run. Very Grinchy, that NAM. Doesn't mean it has to be correct tho. It flunked the test miserably with the OHV slider fwiw..not much, Ik 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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