July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Because voting for Trump to take a stand against wokeness and continually harping on the factual inaccuracy of the left while remaining silent about that of the right are signs of being an absolute flaming liberal. Silly me.

The fact you referenced “wokeness” in a climate science discussion perfectly illustrates my point re: science and politics. I don’t think I’ve ever used that word on this forum.

Also, your read on me is wildly off base but it’s amusing nonetheless. If I lived in a swing state I likely would’ve voted for old Joe. But alas, in Maryland my vote meaningless at the federal level.

I can send a message of disapproval, though. And I can do so without risking swinging the election.

[Phil]

Yeah this really did drift off topic, and it was partly my fault. Next time let’s keep politics out of it, doesn’t serve any purpose other than to obfuscate.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Loving the trend on the 18Z ECMWF for my area...

 

Lmao, of course it now shadows me. I probably don’t see anything from this

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Loving the trend on the 18Z ECMWF for my area...

 

Nice bump for the south Willamette Valley. This would be very nice...you can take it from me since I experienced it. It overperformed in Alaska if that means anything.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Lmao, of course it now shadows me. I probably don’t see anything from this

(Bummed to be merely in the green and not the blue.)

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Nice bump for the south Willamette Valley. This would be very nice...you can take it from me since I experienced it. It overperformed in Alaska if that means anything.

(Excited to be in the gray.)

Can sure tell who’s an optimist and who’s a pessimist tonight!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Temps ended up surprisingly close to where they were yesterday despite a thick marine layer this morning. 85/61 spread with low clouds burning off around 10-11am.

[GHweatherChris]

KSEA certainly did not stay in the low 70's today, that was never going to happen, not even a decent chance of it.

[Cold Snap]

79 now IMBY. Needs to not hit 80 in order to underperform but I think the temp won’t rise anymore.

[YahRaEl]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

KSEA certainly did not stay in the low 70's today, that was never going to happen, not even a decent chance of it.

SEA hit 77°

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, ChristheElohim said:

SEA hit 77°

Ya, that's the lower end of the upper 70's.

[YahRaEl]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ya, that's the lower end of the upper 70's.

I made forecast last night 77-83° around the Puget Sound Region 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, ChristheElohim said:

I made forecast last night 77-83° around the Puget Sound Region 

umm ok....

[YahRaEl]

Hit 82° here at Eastside Tacoma Neighborhood

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Hit 82° here at Eastside Tacoma Neighborhood

Currently 79 across town on the west side. 

[YahRaEl]

Just now, T-Town said:

Currently 79 across town on the west side. 

KTCM 79° also

[FroYoBro]

Impressive recovery for pdx to get back up to 88 this evening. 

[Omegaraptor]

30 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Impressive recovery for pdx to get back up to 88 this evening. 

Underperformances get pretty difficult when you have this going on.

[FroYoBro]

8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Underperformances get pretty difficult when you have this going on.

75 degrees at 1pm to 88 at 5pm! 

[Requiem]

Pretty nasty fires around today-- one near Goldendale in central WA, another on the Warm Springs Reservation near Simnasho. 

https://twitter.com/MichaelWX18/status/1682570790288658432?s=20

[Cold Snap]

57 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Underperformances get pretty difficult when you have this going on.

Seeing that map makes me think that even if the rain event Monday works out that it still won’t be enough to dampen things enough especially if we just go back to dry and sunny after that.

[MossMan]

Nice evening at the lake. 

[TT-SEA]

Mariners walk it off against Blue Jays!

[the_convergence_zone]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Mariners walk it off against Blue Jays!

Great game! They haven’t been winning games like that this year, maybe this will finally get them going in the right direction. Or they will be .500 again after losing tomorrow. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Monday’s daily rainfall record at Sea-Tac is one of the easiest ones to break, 0.28”. It might actually have a chance of falling. The ensemble mean is up to 0.20” or so. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows the timing of the front during the day on Monday... perfectly timed to keep it in the mid 60s.   

@Meatyorologistcall might not be too far off.

[Phil]

00z CMC looks nice.

[TT-SEA]

And ECMWF continues to trend farther south.

[Meatyorologist]

I think we can all step aside and recognize that climate change doesn't have to literally end humanity for it to be considered a preventable disaster. The benchmark for a 'climate tragedy' does not need to include wiping out a proportion of our population in the range of whole percentage points.

Warming our climate system, combined with destabilization of the world supply chain, will leave billions food insecure and many millions as refugees. That doesn't even factor in the encroachment of harmful diseases into populated areas and the effects of rapid urbanization/destruction of ecosystems, or the many, many countless other forms of pollution we are incurring upon the natural world.

Humans have a substance abu$e problem.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z CMC looks nice.

Trended a little drier for Monday/Tuesday and a little less troughy later in the week.   

I am really glad to see the ECMWF trending wetter at this point.

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think we can all step aside and recognize that climate change doesn't have to literally end humanity for it to be considered a preventable disaster. The benchmark for a 'climate tragedy' does not need to include wiping out a proportion of our population in the range of whole percentage points.

Warming our climate system, combined with destabilization of the world supply chain, will leave billions food insecure and many millions as refugees. That doesn't even factor in the encroachment of harmful diseases into populated areas and the effects of rapid urbanization/destruction of ecosystems, or the many, many countless other forms of pollution we are incurring upon the natural world.

Humans have a substance abu$e problem.

What you say is true. However, abrupt+high amplitude climate change is the rule, not the exception. And that will not change, regardless of what we do.

The present warming is nothing, nada, zippo, compared to the violent, high amplitude warmings (and coolings) that have occurred over just the last 25,000 years.

The more we’ve learned about the climate system, the more we’ve come to realize what an unstable, fickle bitch it is. Back in the 1950s-70s, the prevailing opinion was that climate change is a slow, gradual process. Now, it is understood that is seldom the case, and in fact vast the majority of climate changes occur in the form of rapid vacillation(s) between quasi-stable states of operation. It is disruptive, forces mass extinctions on a regular basis, and is the driver of the evolution of all species. It can (and will) only get worse.

The only remarkable aspect about the climate system over the last 300 years is how “stable” it’s been, compared to what it could be. The only thing humanity can do is learn how to use resources more prudently, and prepare adaptive measures. Because it’s coming, and this is merely the prequel.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Trended a little drier for Monday/Tuesday and a little less troughy later in the week.   

I am really glad to see the ECMWF trending wetter at this point.

00z CMC actually trended cooler for the days I’m there. And the next three days as well.

A tad warmer 7/29 onwards, but I’ll have left by then.

[Phil]

Is there another reason why the GFS is always too warm there besides over drying/mixing the BL?

12z GFS had 86°F at SEA today, which was 9°F too warm. And that’s inside 12hrs. Don’t understand how a model can be so wrong right out of the gate.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Is there another reason why the GFS is always too warm there besides over drying/mixing the BL?

12z GFS had 86°F at SEA today, which was 9°F too warm. And that’s inside 12hrs. Don’t understand how a model can be so wrong right out of the gate.

It's been good this week overall.   In fact too cold on a few days.   You never post about those days.    As I mentioned many times... today was a perfect set up for underachieving.   

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Is there another reason why the GFS is always too warm there besides over drying/mixing the BL?

12z GFS had 86°F at SEA today, which was 9°F too warm. And that’s inside 12hrs. Don’t understand how a model can be so wrong right out of the gate.

it just can’t seem to grasp the marine layer this time of year. Days like today will put this model in chaos. 
 

I can typically tell when I walk outside when the marine layer is already in place that the GFS will be wrong with its output.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

it just can’t seem to grasp the marine layer this time of year. Days like today will put this model in chaos. 
 

I can typically tell when I walk outside when the marine layer is already in place that the GFS will be wrong with its output.

I could see the issue today coming a couple days ago.    If the marine layer is moving solidly inland into my area after dawn... it will be an underachieving day.   Every time. 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I could see the issue today coming a couple days ago.    If the marine layer is moving solidly inland into my area after dawn... it will be an underachieving day.   Every time. 

A solid layer rolled in at around 3-4am yesterday morning and by the time I left work at 6am, it was as thick as it can be. A bit unusual for this time of the year too. Knew then it would take well into the afternoon hours for this marine layer to burn off. 
 

still amazing that it topped out at 78. The GFS is in that realm of accuracy if it can get a handle on the marine layer. 

[Cloud]

No marine layer expected tonight and early morning. Willing to bet the GFS will perform much better today. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

No marine layer expected tonight and early morning. Willing to bet the GFS will perform much better today. 

Marine layer actually does get into Seattle by morning per the ECMWF.    But not into my area.    It will still be an underachieving day but not as bad.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

A solid layer rolled in at around 3-4am yesterday morning and by the time I left work at 6am, it was as thick as it can be. A bit unusual for this time of the year too. Knew then it would take well into the afternoon hours for this marine layer to burn off. 
 

still amazing that it topped out at 78. The GFS is in that realm of accuracy if it can get a handle on the marine layer. 

It was clear here when I woke up but the marine layer rolled in around 6 and kept going to the north and east.   ECMWF showed that happening so it wasn't a surprise.  Once it gets out here then it takes longer to clear everywhere.

[Phil]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It was clear here when I woke up but the marine layer rolled in around 6 and kept going to the north and east.   ECMWF showed that happening so it wasn't a surprise.  Once it gets out here then it takes longer to clear everywhere.

You wake up at 5? When do you sleep?