Tanis Leach Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 23 hours ago, Phil said: No. Dvorak method tells you nothing about whether the system is tropical or subtropical. It only aims to gauge intensity of a cyclone via satellite presentation. The intensity of subtropical cyclones can be gauged via dvorak method but often underestimates transitioning systems, hence the development of the ETT method. This was an un-named subtropical/extratropical system. Period. There is absolutely no chance whatsoever that a warm core/tropical cyclone survived for 2+ days in waters 20°F too cold to support warm core cyclogenesis. So I don't know if this is your intent, but how the post comes across is that the only evidence you have to counter the 3 storms existence is "it shouldn't happen where it did therefore it didn't". If this is a misconception and you have a counter showing the structure of the storms, I would like to see it. The 1975 storm at the 44N 151W dot had a ship report that confirmed it was in fact, a hurricane, and the dvorak numbers were at least close to the actual numbers (CPHC already began Dvorak numbers on it after their meteorologists concluded it was tropical about 1-2 days before that point) and is included in the NHC database, 2016's Alex, while named, was beyond doubt by the NHC to be a hurricane. The 2006 storm, has a general consensus that it was either tropical or subtropical (with one citing 2005's hurricane Vince as a good analog for composition comparison, which while warmer than what this storm was in, developed in temperatures percieved to be too cold to develop a TC), and FSU's ATS department also concluding it was. The paper I cited shows how it not only was tropical, but how a tropical system could survive over 18C water if conditions are perfect. Even though the NHC never classified it, one of their senior meteorologists at the time, James Franklin said on Dr. Jeff Master's blog (naming the storm Thingimabobbercane): "The convective structure resembled a tropical, rather than subtropical cyclone, and the radius of maximum winds (based on QuikSCAT) was very close to the center, also more typical of tropical cyclones. It was, for most of its existence, under an upper low, typical of subtropical cyclones. However, it was developing a modest mid to upper lever warm core, moving toward tropical structure. So structurally, on balance, it was more tropical than subtropical." In all fairness, he did also explain that the 18C waters led to it not being classified, because it wasn't the operational definition, but recountered later by saying Nature is not interested in our classification of cyclones. For the 54N 138W dot, which you appear to directly refrence with the 20F below temperatures, I'm explaining what the NHC thinks, and even I question it in the post you quoted twice (though the wording appears poor in hindsight), as if we use other analogs in similar latitudes, it would be on the quicker side (ex: 12 hours), so the 51N 142W dot would be the last one it should be considered "tropical" (officially it should be tropical transitioning into EC). Either way, I do think it should be looked at. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanis Leach Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 8 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said: Even though it means absolutely ****, for your viewing pleasure Hey, I don't mind having the hope (doesn't mean I'll use it as a source in predictions). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said: Hey, I don't mind having the hope (doesn't mean I'll use it as a source in predictions). I will. CFS all the way. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 A steady moderate rain here in Fife at 60F. Music to my ears. Quote 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Picked up 0.12” of rain so far. Currently 58. 1 Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 2 Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 I love the little bongo blob reaction!! They're back!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 The rain flipping missed me! What gives? The high temp yesterday was 68F and it is currently 57F. The longterm forecast for Everett looks manageable. It makes me sad to keep seeing rain pop up, only for it to disappear as we get closer to that day. This has happened a lot this year as a whole. I guess what really depends is on where the smoke is going to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Unfortunately Thursday, especially evening, the smoke appears to be coming back. Heaviest concentrations will be in BC and NW Washington. Most of the smoke is coming from BC wildfires which continue to torch the province rent free. This time the smoke will be coming from out in the Pacific and moving over us that way, well a lot of it will be. Some of it will be localized for the Lower Mainland of BC and Whatcom County. This model is showing smoke at higher levels in the atmosphere, so not at ground level. Ground level smoke might be okay as there doesn't appear to be a lot yet on the modeling forecasts... unless you live in Central Washington. For Oregon, a lot of your upper level smoke will be from BC while the lower stuff will come from California wildfires and some localized stuff. This is at higher altitudes and should not be ground level. The NW portions is coming in from the Pacific from Canada wile the souther/central band is coming up from California. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Awakened by the sound of rain pounding on the roof. Very nice. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 8 hours ago, Front Ranger said: And yet, this summer has an average temp of 67.3 at SEA. 2015 was almost 2 degrees warmer with 69.2. One stat does not tell the whole story. This feels like a defensive post. Something to do with Matt? I just found it interesting. And the story it tells me is consistent warmth. And up until last week it was consistent warmth with almost no extreme heat. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 This batch moving thru is a good one. It’s zipping by but produced moderate showers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Look like a lot of places, including SEA will have another shot at 90F this weekend before the month is wrap up and meteorological fall starts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 .40 out here overnight. The ECMWF was definitely right. That really helps reduce the fire threat in the central Cascade foothills. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 0.15” in the last 12 hours some light rain falling still and 58 degrees. Our best rain event since June. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 .12" overnight, which I think is right in line with what the models were showing, got down to 54. 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 The satellite shows elevated smoke coming in on the backside of this ULL. Still raining lightly here with smoke also moving in... lovely. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 This was the teaser, next week is the main event. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said: This was the teaser, next week is the main event. Weekly rain in the warm season makes everything better. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Went to bed last night with rain falling on the leaves outside my window and woke up to the same sound. Hard to beat that music. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Pleasant mostly clear morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Nice to see air quality is much improved in Spokane. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Detailed forecast for metro area from the NWS. 1pm to 4pm is gonna be glorious! Thursday Widespread haze before 1pm, then widespread haze after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. North wind 7 to 10 mph. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Los Angeles is at 26.21" of precip on the year so far. Decent chance they see their wettest year since 1884. Meanwhile, Seattle is sitting at 14.22". 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 .00" overnight . Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Los Angeles is at 26.21" of precip on the year so far. Decent chance they see their wettest year since 1884. Meanwhile, Seattle is sitting at 14.22". Incredible stat. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Los Angeles is at 26.21" of precip on the year so far. Decent chance they see their wettest year since 1884. Meanwhile, Seattle is sitting at 14.22". What do they average? Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: The satellite shows elevated smoke coming in on the backside of this ULL. Still raining lightly here with smoke also moving in... lovely. Looks like the smoke is going to be around for about a week before getting cleared out by that storm next Wed/Thurs. Mostly a nuisance this time it seems like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Possible thunderstorms for overnight Thursday into Friday late morning for parts of Western Washington and Oregon 2 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 .28 last night into this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 29 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: What do they average? 14.77" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 49 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Los Angeles is at 26.21" of precip on the year so far. Decent chance they see their wettest year since 1884. Meanwhile, Seattle is sitting at 14.22". Still a bit of an asterisk when you consider they switched a few years ago from California's water year which aligned better with their climate. Sunny day but cool breeze. I have the windows open today with the temps only slated to reach about 75F or so later. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 https://twitter.com/fox12weather/status/1694362779229061372?s=20 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: The satellite shows elevated smoke coming in on the backside of this ULL. Still raining lightly here with smoke also moving in... lovely. The sun had that orange smoky glow this morning here. But it’s all elevated for now. 0.03” of rain overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Clear and sunny. More very dry weather continues. With the wet weather to the north and south, we are caught in the middle and still well on our way to becoming a desert here. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 26 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: Still a bit of an asterisk when you consider they switched a few years ago from California's water year which aligned better with their climate. Sunny day but cool breeze. I have the windows open today with the temps only slated to reach about 75F or so later. I'm just looking at the calendar YTD. Although even if you're looking at the water year, L.A. comes out slightly ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 The 100k acre Bush creek east fire in the Shuswap area received a substantial amount of rain last night. Which should cut back on some of the smoke being pumped out of the interior. But the Fraser canyon area hasn’t seen much as of yet. The Stein mountain fire was very active last night, pushing 2-3 miles up The canyon under strong southerly winds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 well this wouldn’t be very good 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: well this wouldn’t be very good Hour 336? We can ignore this Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 Not a cloud in the sky in Albany this morning. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted August 23, 2023 Report Share Posted August 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Hour 336? We can ignore this And it's GFS Goofus 1 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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