October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Check out all that cold air coming through the Alaska islands (I forgot what the chain of islands there called). Bet there is some really strong winds going through those gaps between islands. And check out the next storm coming our way 🌧🌦

Aleutians? Beautiful image.

[the_convergence_zone]

After seeing the HRRR yesterday I thought I might get zeroed from this one but I did manage to squeeze out 0.01”. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE scored 0.15" today. Not bad. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Up on a controlled burn on the south slope of Adams near Trout Lake on Saturday. Conditions were actually too wet to get things going to the extent that was desired. Just creeping ground fire at best. There was an inversion over the area at the time, east winds weren’t punching through as forecast, and temps hung in the low 60s all afternoon with the RH staying high.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Up on a controlled burn on the south slope of Adams near Trout Lake on Saturday. Conditions were actually too wet to get things going to the extent that was desired. Just creeping ground fire at best. There was an inversion over the area at the time, east winds weren’t punching through as forecast, and temps hung in the low 60s all afternoon with the RH staying high.

Beautiful snaps Jess. I can say once we get into October and have had our first fall rains the ground stays very damp in the higher elevations. Last year was an outlier where fire danger stayed high until the end of the month.

[MossMan]

I lucked out again! Was pouring at home but then run into the actual town of Stanwood for soccer practice, and it quits right as we roll in. 

[ShawniganLake]

0.17” today.  Wetter than I was expecting 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

0.32" so far today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we ended up with 0.14" today. Not bad.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, ChristheElohim said:

Eric Snodgrass forecast

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pzzSiD-2tX4

The problem with his call for +EPO-type hyperactive NPAC jet is the very reason we're seeing the poleward shift now (and troughing in the east instead of the west). There is a -AAM moat in the NH subtropics at the STJ latitude(s), where-as his phase-1 MJO composites for +ENSO years are more a more canonical +ENSO fit, with +AAM centered at those latitudes. So the typical p8/p1 response is altered to some degree. I just realized this recently.

That said, as the seasonal change continues and easterly shear continues to downwell towards 50mb, that -AAM should be evacuated poleward. This would culminate in a more +ENSO jet structure, and possible trigger a significant blocking episode towards midwinter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Was in Squamish for a few days and the difference in the bigleaf maples between when I arrived and when I left was astounding. Heading in, the road went through a tunnel of mostly-green maples with a few splashes of yellow here and there. Returning, it was a tunnel of the rich deep yellow that our maples turn in the fall.

[ShawniganLake]

Fire season still going in bc

 

 

[TacomaWx]

Just 0.07” today so far. Glad some decent rain events are showing up on the models, but nothing insane really besides the gfs going off the rails. 

[Snownerd3000]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Was in Squamish for a few days and the difference in the bigleaf maples between when I arrived and when I left was astoinding. Heading in, the road went through a tunnel of mostly-green maples with a few splashes of yellow here and their. Returning, it was a tunnel of the rich deep yellow that our maples turn in the fall.

Just got back from a weekend in Whistler and I was floored with the fall colors up there.

[The Blob]

Finally was able to get a few huckleberries off my bush this year.

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Up on a controlled burn on the south slope of Adams near Trout Lake on Saturday. Conditions were actually too wet to get things going to the extent that was desired. Just creeping ground fire at best. There was an inversion over the area at the time, east winds weren’t punching through as forecast, and temps hung in the low 60s all afternoon with the RH staying high.

Fires definitely still smoldering or even actively burning in the North Cascades this past weekend. No large plumes of smoke, but hazy air limited visibility and the smell of smoke was strong in the valleys. The fire areas have really only picked up 1-2" of rain (if that) so we need more rain to put the fires completely out (not that I'm worried about them exploding, but the hazy air was a bit of a letdown this weekend after last weekend's crystal clear conditions).

[Gradient Keeper]

I managed 0.08" so far. Less than I was expecting.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 21 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I managed 0.08" so far. Less than I was expecting.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 21 minutes

Light blessings

[Kolk1604]

20 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I managed 0.08" so far. Less than I was expecting.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 21 minutes

26 days 4 Hours and 13 minutes to earlier models runs! 

[Gradient Keeper]

41 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

26 days 4 Hours and 13 minutes to earlier models runs! 

Hoping for many arctic air masses and arctic fronts to track along with areas of deep low pressure inside ~130 W.

00z ECMWF (November 5th) in 649 hours 39 minutes

FALL BACK

[Chewbacca Defense]

Have had water falling from the sky off and on a good chunk of the day but not enough to even tip the rain bucket once.  Can't really call it rain, the drops were too big to be drizzle.....so maybe rizzle?  Razzle?  It razzled today.  Oh wait, razzle already has a definition, so it "Rizzled"  up here IMBY today.

Was fairly warm and windy too.  Got up to 70, currently 60.

[MossMan]

.12” on the day. 

[Phishy Wx]

cloudy, no rain yet.  supposedly tomorrow.  Heading to San Diego in the morning for a work meeting, back wednesday night.  then friday night headed on the red eye to the east coast for a week at the beach in South Carolina, can't wait

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

cloudy, no rain yet.  supposedly tomorrow.  Heading to San Diego in the morning for a work meeting, back wednesday night.  then friday night headed on the red eye to the east coast for a week at the beach in South Carolina, can't wait

Safe travels.

6z NAM in 3 hours 43 minutes

[Meatyorologist]

Say what you will of Jesse, he's a man of his word. And for that I respect him.

[Kolk1604]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Hoping for many arctic air masses and arctic fronts to track along with areas of deep low pressure inside ~130 W.

00z ECMWF (November 5th) in 649 hours 39 minutes

FALL BACK

Way to stick it to El Nino 

[Front Ranger]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Yes during the middle of winter. +PNA/+WPO increases WAFz thru NPAC, triggering top-down W1 response in the SPV. Scand/Eurasia ridge in tandem opens door to upward propagating W2. In 2018/19 they occurred in tandem, which is how that SSW evolved and overpowered the El Nino inflluence.

In fact you could argue that *extreme* blocking during El Nino has a higher ceiling to produce anomalous outcomes in the PNW given the southward shift in the NPAC jet & augmented STJ. There's a reason 1968/69 was one of the greatest winter up there.

Phil to El Nino.

[Snownerd3000]

40 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil to El Nino.

Fair. I mean it looks like Lloyd borrowed Judah's sweater. Also, in Nina 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Aerial assault on Lake Forest, CA.

Reply to the post here if you spot any other enemy planes in the sky in your area.

Need to know if the enemy has coordinated partners. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 8

Nothing to see here just a pedestrian 929mb low over the North Pacific. IF that verified that would have to be a new record low barometric pressure for the North Pacific in October. Maybe I'm mistaken. I dunno.

[The Blob]

53 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Aerial assault on Lake Forest, CA.

Reply to the post here if you spot any other enemy planes in the sky in your area.

Need to know if the enemy has coordinated partners. 

 

 

That's the CHP looking for you.

[Gradient Keeper]

Lowest barometric pressure on record for ALASKA: 925 mb (27.31”) Dutch Harbor on 10/25/1977

I can't yet find info for the North Pacific.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Lowest barometric pressure on record for ALASKA: 925 mb (27.31”) Dutch Harbor on 10/25/1977

I can't yet find info for the North Pacific.

October 24, 2021 "bomb cyclone" had a minimum central pressure of 942 millibars (27.8 inHg) at its peak, making it the most powerful cyclone recorded in the Northeast Pacific.

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, The Blob said:

That's the CHP looking for you.

[The Blob]

Anyone going to be buying of Amazon tonight?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, The Blob said:

Anyone going to be buying of Amazon tonight?

I will not. I don't think.

[Snownerd3000]

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1711439133137396197?s=20

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1711439133137396197?s=20

Thanks. That was an interesting read. Big wind storm coming.

[Snownerd3000]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Thanks. That was an interesting read. Big wind storm coming.

Ben's good follow 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Ben's good follow 

Yes he is.