December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Mountain snow would be wonderful.  

As mentioned before some is better than none, but not a big time mountain snow pattern coming up either. Should be high quality snow at resort level though. 

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Which ones failed in this manner? 

1987-1988 and 1991-1992.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

1987-1988 and 1991-1992.

92-93’ was a good year for you though if I recall correctly? 

[MWG]

I just want another January 2017

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I legitimately thought January might be back after the 2007-09 period. 

[Deweydog]

January 2013 looks like a purty good analog for what’s currently being modeled.

 

[Mercurial]

The weenies at NWS Missoula are hard at work jinxing us for our event next week, a full week out.  

 

[Slushy Inch]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coldest Januaries this century at SLE

1) 2017

2) 2008

3) 2013

of the only 6 with mean temps below 40, half were in the 2007-09 period. 
 

At SLE 5 of the past 6 Februaries have been colder than their preceding January. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

January 2013 looks like a purty good analog for what’s currently being modeled.

 

I know some people won’t like hearing that, but we could do a lot worse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking more at January. At SLE only 2017 was below the long term station average in the ten year 2014-23 period. The second coldest was 2014 with a mean of 41.7, roughly 2F above the long term station average, though fairly close to the 1991-2020 average. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Almost stationary slug of rain the past few hours. Fairly light, but it's gotten progressively heavier. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not too shabby.

[AlTahoe]

38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

92-93’ was a good year for you though if I recall correctly? 

1992-1993 was incredible but it wasn't a strong El Nino year. 1991-1992 was a strong El Nino that was a total disaster for the Sierra. Very similar storm track as this year so far. 

[the_convergence_zone]

I’m skeptical about lowland snow chances but the odds of a good mountain dumping are increasing. 

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting we are getting more ensemble spread from this possible event now.  More really cold members, but also more fairly mild ones.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I’m skeptical about lowland snow chances but the odds of a good mountain dumping are increasing. 

For us it's going to come down to keeping the EPO reasonably low.  PNA and NAO look great.  No matter what it looks way better than our January norm this century.

[ShawniganLake]

EPS did bottom out a notch colder on the 12z

[snow_wizard]

The somewhat better looking GFS solutions compared to the ECMF probably has to do with how they are handling the current MJO wave.  The GFS keeps it stronger with a good wave in region 3 next week.  3 is often a good place for us.  The bias corrected ECMWF is stronger than the EPS mean.  Models also have a tendency to collapse these too quickly.  Another thing to keep an eye on.

[snow_wizard]

1/4 of the EPS members give SEA 2 or more inches of snow.

[BLI snowman]

I was digging around some newspapers and thought it'd be fun to take a look back at the forecasts leading into some of our bigger arctic blasts. This one jumped out to me from December 18, 1983, immediately before our big cold spell. I overlaid it with the verified high/low temps here for the dates in question. Just goes to show that forecasting has come a little ways in 40 years and that even our biggest airmasses historically weren't very well predicted.

 

 

Monday (19th): 37/26

Tuesday (20th): 29/13

Wednesday (21st): 22/11

Thursday (22nd): 22/2

Friday (23rd): 21/1

Edited December 30, 2023 by BLI snowman

[Snownerd3000]

15 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Chris has always struck me as a vest guy.

Extra points and lowland snow credits to those who can ID Sea Bass’ PNW connection sans internet help.

 

Did anyone win? 

[Canadian guy]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Did anyone win? 

For the win- Cam Neely…originally a Vancouver Canuck 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Canadian guy said:

Cam Neely…originally a Vancouver Canuck 

Eh, I’ll maybe give it to you. He actually played his major junior hockey in Portland.

[SouthHillFrosty]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1/4 of the EPS members give SEA 2 or more inches of snow.

Post it pls?

[ShawniganLake]

Mildly interesting that both the ICON and euro have a deepening mid 980s mb low approaching Vancouver Island next Friday.  

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking more at January. At SLE only 2017 was below the long term station average in the ten year 2014-23 period. The second coldest was 2014 with a mean of 41.7, roughly 2F above the long term station average, though fairly close to the 1991-2020 average. 

January has been horrendous.  2022 came in around normal here, but not long term normal.  2012 and 2013 were both fairly cold if you go back 2 more years.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Post it pls?

[selkirks]

34 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I’m skeptical about lowland snow chances but the odds of a good mountain dumping are increasing. 

Desperately necessary.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I was digging around some newspapers and thought it'd be fun to take a look back at the forecasts leading into some of our bigger arctic blasts. This one jumped out to me from December 18, 1983, immediately before our big cold spell. I overlaid it with the verified high/low temps here for the dates in question. Just goes to show that forecasting has come a little ways in 40 years and that even our biggest airmasses historically weren't very well predicted.

 

 

Monday (19th): 37/26

Tuesday (20th): 29/13

Wednesday (21st): 22/11

Thursday (22nd): 22/2

Friday (23rd): 21/1

Horrible bust.  I don't remember that at all.  The month had been cold all the way through so the bigger cold late wasn't a total shock.

[Cold Snap]

Managed to avoid a 60 burger yesterday with a high of 59.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Managed to avoid a 60 burger yesterday with a high of 59.

Near death experiences are said to be some of the most intense and vivid moments of one's life. I strongly recommend you see a therapist to help talk through what you witnessed yesterday, and maybe to discuss some of your emotions surrounding the event.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Horrible bust.  I don't remember that at all.  The month had been cold all the way through so the bigger cold late wasn't a total shock.

Maybe they were jittery because it was coming on the heels of a terrible Nino winter where SW flow dominated.

Another momentous bust that really stood out to me was actually the November 1981 windstorm. This was the forecast on the morning of the 13th.

Hard to even imagine that forecast with this thing bearing off the coast at 956mb. Compare that to the October 2016 hype train where they were practically closing schools the day before....

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Canadian.

 

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Like Andrew said. Ensemble improvement in long range too.

The 12z GEPS and GEFS ensembles out to mid January look promising now.

[Cold Snap]

Looks like I could get some freezes in coming up these next few days but it’s going to be close depending on the cloud cover.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Horrible bust.  I don't remember that at all.  The month had been cold all the way through so the bigger cold late wasn't a total shock.

The big bust in 1983 was the White Christmas forecast bust.  I'm still bitter about it 40 years later.

I was in high school and living in Anacortes. The cold air was in place, a wet system was coming in.  The Seattle P-I has a big headline about having a white Christmas.  The Seahawks won a playoff game that day, Winter Storm Warnings were issued for 6 to 8 inches of snow by Christmas morning.  All was right with the world.

Everyone has gone to bed and I heard a pitter patter.  I was old enough to know it wasn't Santas reindeer.  

It was rain.  

I'm guessing the storm took a more northerly track and the low went to our North and brought warm air.

 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The big bust in 1983 was the White Christmas forecast bust.  I'm still bitter about it 40 years later.

I was in high school and living in Anacortes. The cold air was in place, a wet system was coming in.  The Seattle P-I has a big headline about having a white Christmas.  The Seahawks won a playoff game that day, Winter Storm Warnings were issued for 6 to 8 inches of snow by Christmas morning.  All was right with the world.

Everyone has gone to bed and I heard a pitter patter.  I was old enough to know it wasn't Santas reindeer.  

It was rain.  

I'm guessing the storm took a more northerly track and the low went to our North and brought warm air.

 

Sounds depressing. 

[westcoastexpat]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This would be a bona fide miracle for January in this century!  Keep in mind the meteograms are notoriously warm for mins at SEA as well.

January 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2017 would like to have a word 

[High Desert Mat?]

18z has commenced. Hopefully we get the full on drunk version of Uncle Bob. Outlier or not, he may go full arctic. 

[Deweydog]

20 years ago RIGHT NOW clipper mania was about to sweep through Clark County! A sneaky little continental shortwave descended on the 29th, leading to a nice inversion and daytime temps in low 30’s. Most places received between 2-3 inches despite it not looking like much to write home about at the 500mb level.