January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[hawkstwelve]

Some of the highest totals I've seen the NBM spit out so far this season. 

[CentralNebWeather]

24 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Anyone have the 18z GFS ensembles?

[ATW]

22 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I really hope the GFS stays north of the other models for a while.  The GFS giving KC snow at this range would be the kiss of death.  

I would take a 4 or 5 inch storm at this point. Would suck if we get hit then it immediately warms up and melts it off. Just give us a few days with a snow pack.

[ATW]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

From Bastardi:

oe Bastardi
Dec 31 2023

That is the most bullish snow run on the euro ensemble I can remember

The carpet is getting laid down for the emperor of the north to strut in on

 

I hope the euro holds course but it’s too far away to get too excited yet. This may be one of the few times we have a chance at a meaningful storm this season. 

[CentralNebWeather]

19z Blend. 

[Stacsh]

So far out and this winter has been awful.  So anything is going to be hype but I’m taking it with extreme caution.  The only time I remember a for sure storm 5-6 days out let alone 9 was feb 2nd 2011.   Trends are nice though! 

[CentralNebWeather]

01z Blend. 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

01z Blend. 

Nice jump south, hope we get a good one!

[Timmy Supercell]

On 12/30/2023 at 9:19 PM, Clinton said:

Gary with an update on the upcoming storms.

This map shows the GFS model (American Model) for total snowfall in the next 15 days.  The LRC long range prediction has had this in the forecast for a series of storm systems in the first half of January, with one or two targeting the KC region. This shows the target for snow being Nebraska & Iowa.  We will monitor closely for a shift south in the next few days. The first storm isn't due until around the end of next week, and that one doesn't have cold air to work with.  Have a great Saturday night!

 

So the snow goes around Kentucky. I can probably walk to that one outer section touching the Ohio border. 

[Clinton]

0z GFS looking snowy for the Ohio Valley and SE Michigan with the lead storm on the 6th and 7th.

[jcwxguy]

Big dog looks south on gfs

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty large jump to the SW on the 00z GFS around day eight. Meanwhile, 00z CMC had a sizable shift to the north.

Round and round we go... 

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian looks north. Whoa. 

[winterfreak]

GFS with a 180 at day 7-8? Who saw that coming? Nearly too far south for even me.

[Black Hole]

Here is what is in so far for that first storm. ICON and CMC both with a solid snow event here. GFS, not so much. I still think it'll be too warm for much snow but it's getting harder to ignore. 

[Black Hole]

As others noted, for the 2nd system we had the GFS go south and CMC go north. The GFS is very close to being big for me. 

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

0z GEFS and GEPS for 8th-10th storm.

 

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Stacsh said:

This will be fun to watch and fall apart.  Either way, Looks like a week of winter coming second week of January when it should be winter so that’s cool.   Probably will have to rely on LES snow once again.  
 

only 10 days out what could go wrong? 

 

12 hours ago, westMJim said:

Where have I seen that before????

Whatever happens, you can be pretty sure the models are over-inflating amounts at this range as seen with every storm the last few years. 

[jcwxguy]

South trend continues on euro 

[jcwxguy]

[winterfreak]

Day 7 Euro is a nice rainstorm.

[GDR]

[clintbeed1993]

30 minutes ago, GDR said:

Look at the literal middle finger over my backyard. WTSF  

[Grizzcoat]

Been around the block too many times. Little to no snow cover in the Northland. Pressure wise I have no clue for the actual storm - but "H" pressure I believe is being overdone in Canada. This is coming North further than people think -- might dry out -- But my bet is on MSP as Golden Shovel at this time frame. Wait and see -

[westMJim]

Happy New Year! It is now official December 2023 with a mean of 41.0° December warmest in recorded history at Muskegon. With a mean of 38.3 at Grand Rapids and Lansing it was the 2^nd warmest at both locations. At Grand Rapids it also was the 2^nd least snowy December on record with just 1.3” of snowfall that is 19.5” below average. And for the season so far the 3.2” is the least amount of snow fall for any October through December at Grand Rapids. There was more snowfall at Muskegon and Lansing and they were not even in the top 10 least snowy. But this winter so far has been very historic.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 37/33 there was 0.07” of rain fall and a reported trace of snow fall. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 32/21 the record high of 56 was set in 1897 and the record low of -15 was set in 1964 and 1968. The wettest was in 1985 with 0.65” the most snow fall of 5.7” fell in 1995 the most on the ground was 12” in 2001. Last year the H/L was 42/32 and there was 0.15” of rainfall. One last item GO BLUE!

[westMJim]

While most of the talk is of a possible system that may of more likely not happen here is some New Years Day weather history.

Weather history in southern Lower Michigan

 

1876: The year begins during three days of record warmth. Lansing hits 65 degrees, after setting a record of 70 degrees the day before.

1964: Arctic air sets record lows across Lower Michigan on this New Year’s Day. The temperature falls to 15 below zero at Grand Rapids and Muskegon hits 9 below.

1985: A severe ice storm struck southern Lower Michigan as a layer of ice up to one-inch thick downed tree limbs and power lines. There were three deaths and eight injuries directly related to the ice storm. Over 430,000 electrical customers were without power, some for as long as 10 days. Total damage was estimated at nearly $50 million.

 2008, a snowy start to the new year when a compact, but potent winter storm hit southeast Michigan. Detroit received 4 inches of snow, and Saginaw only had 2 to 3 inches, but in between a heavy band of snow left 8 to 16 inches. Storm totals included 8.6 in Flint, 10.5 in Ann Arbor, 12 in Brighton, 13.2 in White Lake, and 16 inches in Clarkston, Lake Orion, Dryden, and Capac!

Across the USA

1864: A historic cold blast of air charged southeast from the Northern Plains to Ohio Valley. Chicago had a high temperature of -16°. A farmer near Huntertown, Indiana, reported the same high temperature as Chicago, with a low of 21 degrees below zero. He remarked “rough day” in his weather diary. Minneapolis had a temperature of 25 degrees below zero at 2 PM. St. Louis, Missouri, saw an overnight low of 24 degrees below zero. The Mississippi was frozen solid with people able to cross it.

1961: A three-day-long ice storm was beginning over northern Idaho, which produced an accumulation of ice eight inches thick, a U.S. record. Dense fog, which blanketed much of northern Idaho from Grangeville to the Canadian border, deposited the ice on power and phone lines, causing widespread power outages

1964: A snowstorm struck the Deep South on December 31st, 1963, through January 1st, 1964. Meridian MS received 15 inches of snow, 10.5 inches blanketed Bay St Louis MS, and 4.5 inches fell at New Orleans, LA. The University of Alabama Head Football Coach “Bear” Bryant said that the only thing that could have messed up his team’s chances in the Sugar Bowl against Ole Miss in New Orleans, LA was a freak snowstorm. Well, much to his chagrin, 4.5 inches of snow fell the night before the big game. Alabama won the game 12-7 anyway. Freezing temperatures then prevailed for New Year’s Day

1999: The start of 1999 was ushered in with snow, ice, and freezing weather across central and south-central Nebraska. On New Year’s Day, a steady snowfall along and north of Interstate 80 dumped from 1 to 5 inches of snow. By late morning, freezing drizzle developed southeast of Hastings and eventually coated area roads with a layer of ice. Light snow later that evening made travel even more treacherous. Several accidents occurred on the Interstates and Highway 30. Once the ice and snow ended, arctic air spilled across the area abroad 20 to 30 mph north winds. Blowing and drifting of the fallen snow caused reduced visibilities for a time on the 2nd. Temperatures dropped to 5 to 15 below zero through midday the 3rd.

2011: Southern and central Mississippi saw 11 tornadoes during the night of December 31st into the morning hours of January 1st. Of the 11, two were EF-3 with two more EF-2. Six were EF-1 with one EF-0. 

[bud2380]

Disappointing model trends overnight. But so far away yet. Nothing to get too concerned with yet. 

[Timmy Supercell]

My history stuff isn't as organized. But worth mentioning the first Tornado Watch issued in the US in 2022 included parts of southern Kentucky and central Tennessee, on January 1st. There were a lot of well defined MCS events throughout
'21-'22. 

[Minny_Weather]

EPS overall favors the KC-Ottumwa stretch, but there are obviously solutions all over the place, including a few to the north.

[Clinton]

Good morning and happy New Year!  Good write up from EAX this morning talking about the uncertainty of the storm Friday and Saturday and until models figure out that storm next weeks storm will see wild model swings.

Friday into Saturday, both deterministic and ensemble suites favor a
strong PV anomaly to bring a deep trough across the country with a
stronger mid-latitude surface cyclone. There are still considerably
large discrepancies between deterministic solutions with respect to
the tilt of the trough, the position of the surface cyclone, the
depth of the trough, and the propagation speed. The deterministic
GFS remains deeper with the trough with the base in southern Texas,
and surface cyclone moving mainly along the Gulf Coast, with a
secondary closed mid-level low over the Central Plains. This keeps
our area well into the cold air with this system, and favorable
locations for frontogenesis and stronger deformation zone would be
south of Interstate 44, leaving just lighter snow. Meanwhile,
deterministic ECMWF remains more neutral with the H5 trough tilt, is
a bit faster, vorticity is weaker, and surface cyclone not as deep.
This also keeps our area well into the cold air, and it too would
line up favorable kinematic enhancement well south of Interstate 44.
However, the ECMWF is also developing a secondary mid-level vort max
that tracks across eastern Kansas into Central Missouri producing
QPF with temperatures promoting rain with some kind of wintry mix.
However, no other solution is currently depicting this, with most
ensemble suites and individual members concentrating QPF Friday into
Saturday. With that being said, individual ensemble members also
vary largely in the strength of the trough, and how early/late it
begins to lift. Some members have if lifting early which actually
puts some of area in the warm sector with rain, while other areas
are in cold air but in a favorable zone for kinematic enhancements.
The QPF ensemble means for QPF give you an idea of the amount of
spread in solutions, as it blankets most of the Central CONUS from
the Canadian Border to the Gulf Coast with just a few hundredths of
an inch. Realistically, this system will produce a heavier QPF axis
somewhere, while dry slotting other locations. Even the WPC Cluster
analysis shows the large degree of spread, with a cluster depicting
a strong negatively tilted trough, one a neutral trough, and the
other positively titled trough. Therefore, will not be able to
provide specifics on QPF amounts, snow amounts, winter precipitation
type, or impacts at this time. The probabilities for any measurable
precipitation Friday into Saturday are quite high, generally above
70 percent for most of the forecast area, and above 40 percent for a
threshold of 0.10 inches of liquid QPF. Probabilities rapidly drop
off though for thresholds of 0.25 or greater. For now, anticipate
active weather across our area over the weekend with uncertainty if
it will highly impactful, or just a raw dreary January day.

Medium to long range guidance then depicts another strong PV anomaly
for the start of next week Monday into Tuesday. Ensemble
probabilities for measurable precipitation are also high. Given the
large degree of uncertainty with the Friday-Saturday system, cannot
have any real confidence on details for the system next week.
Expecting insanely large model to model run changes and variability
in output solutions for early next work week.

[Clinton]

Storm on the 6th and 7th still need to be watched by the southern and Ohio Valley peeps.  No artic air will make it difficult to see much snow but models are still showing a marginal event.  6z runs of the Euro Control and EPS.

 

 

[uticasnow]

Boy this thread really died out quick...

[Tom]

Happy New Year and let’s welcome 2024 with a fresh new start!  This will be an extraordinary year for many reasons and I will share with you some insights on what I’ve been working on for a number of years.  

Last night, when I was driving into the valley I had an elevated visual of all the fireworks displays.  Interestingly, they were going off around 7:30 local time which I found it kinda odd.  Nevertheless, it was a great view and I just love watching fireworks!  #pyro

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian stays north. 

[winterfreak]

Ensemble means are the way to go at this juncture.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS. 

[hawkstwelve]

We had some very dense fog overnight with a low of 15. With still some snow/sleet on the ground in places, made for a very pretty wintery scene.

[james1976]

GFS looks like it went back north a bit. Looks stronger too. 979 in OK.

[CentralNebWeather]

13z Blend.