Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
This enhanced convection over the WPAC/dateline is typically associated with +TNH/western ridging. I’m honestly surprised it isn’t more pronounced on guidance.
The drier pattern is manifesting as expected, but the mean ridge axis is farther west than you would climatologically expect. The reason for that is probably related to the enhanced Indian Ocean convection (which is likely to be the dominant low frequency signal this summer).
But until subsidence returns to the dateline (and it will), the drier PNW pattern is likely to continue.
https://climateatlas.org/
Here is a really cool site. Puts nearly 30,000 weather stations across the globe on a map to easily view the climate averages in almost any area. Also offers the option to filter stations in a manner similar to SC-ACIS.
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