January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[snow_wizard]

BTW...I had 12 consecutive freezing max temps IMBY in Nov 1985.  SEA had just one day that got barely above freezing in there.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

The ops run is definitely in a world of its own 

Even if the mean ends up verifying, that’s cold enough to support snow to the surface. Not bad!

Some here are just plain greedy and consider anything but historic cold to be a winter fail.

[snow_wizard]

BTW...I think some people have forgotten the ECMWF has been just as cold as the GFS today.  The GEM was insane on the 12z as well.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Considering that we've only been keeping records in this region ~150 years, I don't even think an event that has occurred once in that period is really all that "impossible". If the last 150 years is a representative sample (and it's not), over 1,000 years an event that extreme will happen 6-7 times.

Insanely rare and may not happen in our lifetimes? Yes, totally. But "almost impossible"? No way. June 2021 should have taught everyone that the type of extreme events that we think are impossible, really are not.

Except nobody ever said it was impossible; the phrase used was almost impossible.

If this is going to degenerate into an argument over the precise standard for what constitutes “almost,” count me out. I am not interested in arguing over how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's like a 100 year event.

Set expectations accordingly. 

Portland ripped off 19 in a row in January 1930.

For comparison, Boston and New York's records are both at only 16. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

BTW...I think some people have forgotten the ECMWF has been just as cold as the GFS today.  The GEM was insane on the 12z as well.

Yes, this does inspire confidence.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Portland ripped off 19 in a row in January 1930.

For comparison, Boston and New York's records are both at only 16. 

Yeah, pretty amazing. I don't think any other stretch is close, at least in the 20th century?

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...I think some people have forgotten the ECMWF has been just as cold as the GFS today.  The GEM was insane on the 12z as well.

Dont think anyone’s disagreeing with ya bud things have been looking good overall on the last few model cycles. 

[SeanNyberg]

A change from single digit highs in the Puget Sound to highs in the teens is not so much a 'step back,' but a rational and expected sobering up of a near-impossible scenario.

Let's save the 'step back,' 'busted,' and 'torched' verbs for when this whole thing collapses in the next few days. LOL. 

[smerfylicious]

How bout some Spire? 

Oh boy can you imagine if we have another moderately accurate model to ride? 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...I had 12 consecutive freezing max temps IMBY in Nov 1985.  SEA had just one day that got barely above freezing in there.

Fair. Probably more like a 50 year event like someone else said.

Dec 2008 had 6 sub-freezing highs at both SEA and PDX, which is quite the rare event in itself. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...I had 12 consecutive freezing max temps IMBY in Nov 1985.  SEA had just one day that got barely above freezing in there.

I was Defiantly talking about Seattle proper. I alwayes wandered about 85 here, i remember it was cold and school was out all week. we had 14 inches of snow with the first big one i remember that

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, smerfylicious said:

How bout some Spire? 

Oh boy can you imagine if we have another moderately accurate model to ride? 

So far it's actually been fairly decent with all this. I'm definitely excited to see how it continues to perform this week.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, pretty amazing. I don't think any other stretch is close, at least in the 20th century?

Yeah, next closest for downtown is 12 in 1978-79. And PDX separately managed 12 in January 1957. 

In the 1800s, Fort Vancouver did have another 19-er in January 1868 and a 16-er in 1861-62.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Those are certainly some inspiring runs!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Seattle Weather Blog is not on board yet.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Shame about the surprise 50 at PDX today. Just 47 here, 48 at VUO.

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

Not reposting tweets from yesterday! lol. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Haven't watched this yet but I am assuming Rod Hill is going to have a field day with these new runs...

 

[Minion]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Could be the best model agreement I've ever seen on this type of event when it's a week out.  Quite a few very cold to historically cold runs and ensemble members.

Let's not throw out the word " historical " just yet. 7 days away. Temper expectations. 

[MWG]

NWS in Medford don't see much for valley floor snow. 

 

[AbbyJr]

52 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It has happened many times in the past. In December 2008 I had snow falling every day to every other day over that 2+ week stretch! 

Of course it can happen but we are 7 days out. It's hard enough to predict snow around here within 48 hours.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Shame about the surprise 50 at PDX today. Just 47 here, 48 at VUO.

Not really a surprise; I called it a few days ago.

[SpaceRace22]

I think the 500mb of the 12z Spire got posted earlier, but here's the 850mb temps fwiw. Plus my favorite 500mb frame.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, Minion said:

Let's not throw out the word " historical " just yet. 7 days away. Temper expectations. 

They never said it would happen, they just pointed out that the models are showing some historical outcomes, which they are.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

13 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

How bout some Spire? 

Oh boy can you imagine if we have another moderately accurate model to ride? 

Don't forget about the Kunyu model.  And it has a legacy version, how that's possible I don't know.

Kunyu.dev

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

They never said it would happen, they just pointed out that the models are showing some hysterical outcomes, which they are.

Fixed it

[SpaceRace22]

7 minutes ago, Minion said:

Let's not throw out the word " historical " just yet. 7 days away. Temper expectations. 

Respectfully, hard disagree. There are countless other places on the internet for measured and reasonable discussion about the most likely outcome. This place is fun because people are allowed to cheerlead the extreme solutions without being shouted down about managing expectations. Everyone here understands that the extreme solutions 7+ days out on the models are unlikely to happen. That isn't the point.

This isn't an official forecast outlet disseminating real forecasts intended for the general public to be consuming and making real decisions off of.

[BLI snowman]

Honestly, the models showing "historical" outcomes is pretty much an annual tradition.

It's a stunning indictment of a winter if it doesn't at some point happen. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The thing is this pattern begins to evolve in just a couple few days with the block moving west and building. This is why we are seeing good agreement because the change happens soon. The snow details will change dramatically even with 24hrs to go. The 4 runs in a row showing cold and snow is a big deal.

Edited January 4 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Down to 34.8 following a high of 41.0 and a low of 27.4, our soil temperature is about 31F, so it's cold enough that our forecast snow will stick.

[Deweydog]

Interesting that this may be our fifth occurrence in the last four years where we have decent agreement within a “believable” range for what would be considered a top tier event (1/20, 2/21, 12/21, 12/22). Not to mention the run ups to last January and February’s events. 

Been quite the run for model riders.

Edited January 4 by Deweydog

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The thing is this pattern begins to evolve in just a couple few days with the block moving west and building. This is why we are seeing good agreement because the change happens soon. The snow details will change dramatically even with 24hrs to go. The 4 runs in a row showing cold and snow is a big deal.

You explained it PERFECTLY. Although the extreme cold and snow is a bit far out, the setup itself is not far out, and at this point it seems fairly likely in my personal opinion that around Thursday next week, the good cold will start moving in. Obviously there's time to be proven wrong,  but if the current model trends continue to Friday morning, I'm sold.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Honestly, the models showing "historical" outcomes is pretty much an annual tradition.

It's a stunning indictment of a winter if it doesn't at some point happen. 

If the models were showing a garden-variety cold snap, I would assume that as the event gets closer they would pull back to the point where it’s just cold rain in the lowlands with mountain snow.

That they are showing a historic cold snap makes me think a garden-variety one is more likely to happen.

[SpaceRace22]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The thing is this pattern begins to evolve in just a couple few days with the block moving west and building. This is why we are seeing good agreement because the change happens soon. The snow details will change dramatically even with 24hrs to go. The 4 runs in a row showing cold and snow is a big deal.

4 runs in a row, of every single major model. I don't think it's possible to overstate the significance of every single model being in just firm agreement within 10 days. That's a huge deal. This isn't the same kind of "models showing something historic" as the 324 hour 18z GFS flash in the pans we get every year.

And no, there was not quite the same level of agreement with most of the events that got rug pulled so dramatically the last couple years. The Euro or someone else was always a little dicey on those.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Interesting that this may be our fifth occurrence in the last four years where we have decent agreement within a “believable” range for what would be considered a top tier event (1/20, 2/21, 12/21, 12/22). Not to mention the run ups to last January and February’s events. 

Been quite run for model riders.

Some pretty cold euro runs last winter

 

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Interesting that this may be our fifth occurrence in the last four years where we have decent agreement within a “believable” range for what would be considered a top tier event (1/20, 2/21, 12/21, 12/22). Not to mention the run ups to last January and February’s events. 

Been quite run for model riders.

The two days of model watching before last February's event was absolutely incredible. Those insanely convective solutions just started coming out of nowhere after disappearing for a time.

[T-Town]

13 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Respectfully, hard disagree. There are countless other places on the internet for measured and reasonable discussion about the most likely outcome. This place is fun because people are allowed to cheerlead the extreme solutions without being shouted down about managing expectations. Everyone here understands that the extreme solutions 7+ days out on the models are unlikely to happen. That isn't the point.

This isn't an official forecast outlet disseminating real forecasts intended for the general public to be consuming and making real decisions off of.

This is what attracted me to this site in the first place. A bunch of people who know a ton about weather who really really really want it to snow. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I feels like a switch was turned on since about 2019, winter has been different and some places have had some huge snow events.