January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Requiem]

Are we ready for either the worst or best Euro run ever no in between?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Meatyorologist]

Looking in the GOA, there is a clear trend to deepen the trough further, which results in less efficient ridge merging downstream around hr72 and a weaker surge of Arctic air at D6.

[Phishy Wx]

I mean why not basically have a noreasta approach the shore, because why not

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Are we ready for either the worst or best Euro run ever no in between?

WHO ARE YOU!!!!

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking in the GOA, there is a clear trend to deepen the trough further, which results in less efficient ridge merging downstream around hr72 and a weaker surge of Arctic air at D6.

It’s over. 

[the_convergence_zone]

The Euro also is deeper with that low on Monday evening, mid-980s. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 00Z ECMWF discovered the Tuesday morning low that the GFS showed.

 

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hope Andy in Woodinville is doing alright. Molbak's is closing.

 

https://komonews.com/news/local/molbaks-garden-home-woodinville-closing-shutting-down-january-2024-after-67-years-in-business-gardens-district-redevelopment-project-canceled-going-out-of-business-sale

Is that where he worked?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 00Z ECMWF discovered the Tuesday morning low that the GFS showed.

 

I knew it would when I saw the rgm and nam had it. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Meatyorologist]

It wasn't just the deep low on the 00z GFS that let the Arctic air slide east, it was the continued dampening of the GOA ridge around D3-6. 00z Euro is continuing that trend.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking in the GOA, there is a clear trend to deepen the trough further, which results in less efficient ridge merging downstream around hr72 and a weaker surge of Arctic air at D6.

Nome, AK can go piss up a rope.

I hope Balto doesn't deliver their serum.

[Phil]

Euro a tad flatter with NPAC wavetrain.

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro has far weaker energy along the Aleutians and the ridge is stronger, better amplitude.

[Phishy Wx]

Welp it was a nice run

[Gradient Keeper]

This run has a chance.

[Meatyorologist]

Weakening blocking is such a disappointing fail mode. Euro and EPS will probably be worse tonight. Onto tomorrow, I need sleep.

[MikeInEverett]

IIRC, during last December’s blast, the ECMWF would consistently show the block being a tad stronger than the GFS leading up to the event. I don’t remember which one won out though.

[SpaceRace22]

Oof, yeah, as much as I want to be optimistic on this one, I think we may be donezo. Still technically a chance of recovery tomorrow, but we are down 3 touchdowns at the start of the 4th quarter.

[Front Ranger]

This forum has a knack for being its weirdest/potentially offensive when the most strangers are pointed this way.

[Kolk1604]

Cold air is closer now than the 12z 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It wasn't just the deep low on the 00z GFS that let the Arctic air slide east, it was the continued dampening of the GOA ridge around D3-6. 00z Euro is continuing that trend.

GOA ridge and deep low aren’t the only things contributing though. Kona low is different on both and euro has the trough on the 9th over WA connected to the main one in B.C better.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Is that where he worked?

Believe so.

[GHweatherChris]

Tonight's front coming through is stronger than previously progged, that's the issue from the get go.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS .... Same issues weakening ridge, less amplitude. Dang it.

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

At day 4 the euro does have the strongest block compared to GFS and GEM

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Weakening blocking is such a disappointing fail mode. Euro and EPS will probably be worse tonight. Onto tomorrow, I need sleep.

The trough riding over the top of Goa ridge (NE section) isnt causing as much of an issue like it does on gfs.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

At day 4 the euro does have the strongest block compared to GFS and GEM

Yeah. It's hanging on by a thread at Day 5.

[Gradient Keeper]

We need that strong ridge merge/connection with the high pressure cell over the arctic.

[iFred]

I need to get some fixes done. Forum will be down while getting some backups done.

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks better than GFS, at least.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

We need that strong ridge merge/connection with the high pressure cell over the arctic.

Yeah losing that has been killer.

[SnowySeeker50]

[Phil]

Yeah this euro run is more progressive during the crucial timeframe.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Euro looks better than GFS, at least.

Surprisingly close though.   Compare block on 12Z ECMWF to 00Z run... big difference in same direction as GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SnowySeeker50 said:

Nail, meet coffin. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Better take a screenshot of the 16/12 day advertised for next Sunday on my phone’s weather app before it’s gone. That’s about the coldest I’ve ever seen it for around here, and may ever see it.

Edited January 6 by Cascadia_Wx

[MikeInEverett]

Absolutely brutal. I don’t get how it all falls apart that fast in one night of model runs. Gets me every time

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Surprisingly close though.   Compare block on 12Z ECMWF to 00Z run... big difference in same direction as GFS.

Yeah...definitely not gonna be as cold.