Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
I’ve heard about the relentless wind in Aruba. The aridity and barrenness of the island is pretty interesting, along with the Guajira Peninsula in Colombia and neighboring areas. Not totally sure why, but it could be rainshadowing from the nearby Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta.
Washington’s coastal glaciated mountain range is cool… but Colombia has one in the deep tropics!
The recent 3 year La Niña stored a huge load of heat within the IPWP, which was suddenly released en masse during the strong El Niño.
People blame the 1998 super niño for the subsequent “jump” in baseline global temps at the turn of the century, but in reality it was the 3+ year niña from 1999-2001 that sequestered all that heat in the IPWP.
Same with that massive 3+ year niña from 1973/74 - 1975/76. What followed was the great pacific climate shift of 1976, and a subsequent jump in global temperatures.
We need only look to CERES data to see how radiative emission to space increases during El Niño, and decreases during La Niña.
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