Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
Just 0.15” of rain so far and the HRRR shows the back edge of the precip coming through in the next couple hours. Looking like a pretty major under performance here if true.
Curious to see how long this expected line of storms holds together tonight. Some CAMS really kill it off dramatically to the point of barely showers as it gets close to Lake Michigan. Given the dynamics of this system, if we have a well-organized line, I think it will hang on longer than what some of those CAMS are showing (albeit in a weakening state with time).
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Do this.
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Important Note!
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