January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[SouthHillFrosty]

Better

[Christensen87]

Ugh, come on GFS. You’re killin’ me smalls. 

[T-Town]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Better

This would be fun. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[iFred]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Close enough too that I'll pull a Jim and admit, we're probably in for a decent shot of Arctic air in the city no matter what. Almost time to identify key features and players too as things enter 96 hours and snow chances transition from nebulous opportunity to specific, timed triggers.

I feel like I’m at the Big Brains table with westcoastexpat, rubus, and Deweydog in thinking that this falls apart late Monday. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Eh mid 

Will change of course but big snow/ice storm down here.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Trend north! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

Just now, iFred said:

I feel like I’m at the Big Brains table with westcoastexpat, rubus, and Deweydog in thinking that this falls apart late Monday. 

You are going to reverse psychology this thing into historic cold! 

[Phil]

Obvious the GFS is still too progressive w/ that TPV in SW-Canada. The way it strings it out like that is suspicious (IMO).

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm all in for the GFS!

[TT-SEA]

That system on Saturday does not scour out the low level cold.  

[TacomaWx]

If the gfs and euro are meeting in the middle I’d expect that battle zone between warm pacific air, and the arctic air to shift south. who knows maybe the Uber cold models will win out and arctic air will go well south. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here is the strong low for Tuesday. According to the GFS, it gets down to 969mb. I circled the secondary low that looks to come into the Portland area later that evening into Wednesday morning. 

 

[Front Ranger]

JMA offers the snow lover's dream scenario. Kinda a GFS/Euro hybrid.

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Here is the strong low for Tuesday. According to the GFS, it gets down to 969mb. I circled the secondary low that looks to come into the Portland area later that evening into Wednesday morning. 

I’m hoping this can be cold enough for you guys. It would be nice to see you get another 1/10/17 event. It would be fun to track even if it means I don’t get snow. It was fun tracking the Feb event down there!

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another interesting aspect is walking the fine line between aggressive cold and moisture.   A slightly weaker solution like the GFS might quickly lead to overrunning snow.   Jesse thinks I am pure evil for even mentioning this (and pure evil in general of course) but its factual and might become a hot topic on here later this week.   

To be honest Tim, given your reputation, I think you should've figured out by now that you lost the privilege a long time ago to publicly indulge in 'warmer is actually better' takes without being dogpiled.

[Ziess]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

I feel like I’m at the Big Brains table with westcoastexpat, rubus, and Deweydog in thinking that this falls apart late Monday. 

I'm with you. There's gonna be a massive rug pull by Tuesday morning. 

[MV_snow]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure there’ll be much watering down with this one, unless people are expecting runs like 00z CMC or 18z ICON to verify, in which case yeah those will be “watered down” from all-time greatness to normal greatness.

Good having you posting here in the lead up to an event since you normally disappear for those as you’re focused on the LR stuff. We could use as many knowledgeable posters as possible during the crazy model rides.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hard to believe the gfs is nothing but a fart Bubble with all this. It is going right back to runs from a few days ago.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, iFred said:

I feel like I’m at the Big Brains table with westcoastexpat, rubus, and Deweydog in thinking that this falls apart late Monday. 

Jan 2020 vibes, minus the crippling lack of EPS support. 550dam AK ridge ain't gon send that lobe much past the border. But we'll still probably be soaked in its frigid blood 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What happened to Andrew???

[Slushy Inch]

44 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I am an “up old, down new” person on mailbox. I run down so I like the easier grade on the downhill. Based on footprints it seems like the old trail is preferred by about a 4:1 ratio. 

Same

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

To be honest Tim, given your reputation, I think you should've figured out by now that you lost the privilege a long time ago to publicly indulge in 'warmer is actually better' takes without being dogpiled.

LOL...but its only one person.    A little warmer and much snowier likely has lots of fans on here.   

[jakerepp]

Nice evening at Sky Harbor. Storm clouds over the mountains, looking beyond Camelback. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Some active showers coming in 🌧

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Good having you posting here in the lead up to an event since you normally disappear for those as you’re focused on the LR stuff. We could use as many knowledgeable posters as possible during the crazy model rides.

I’ll try to be here for this one, IIRC many of those events conflicted with my personal schedule.

Tues/Tues night I might be busy tracking the storm out here, but otherwise I should be around.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

LOL...but its only one person.    A little warmer and much snowier likely has lots of fans on here.   

Most definitely, especially when this event transcends the abstract and the flakes really start flying. Which they will, because it's pretty evidently coming to some degree now, even if that means a trickling bleedout down to a few lows of 24F with 1" overrunning on the backend.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What happened to Andrew???

I think he may have put himself in timeout after his semi-meltdown yesterday. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I think he may have put himself in timeout after his semi-meltdown yesterday. 

I missed this.   

[SeanNyberg]

Hot takes from the forum over the last 24 hours:
"ICON is WILD, don't believe the extreme event it shows"
"EURO is WAY too cold, don't believe the extreme event it shows"
"Canadian is INSANE, don't believe the extreme event it shows"
"GFS is DRUNK, don't believe the extreme snow it shows"

I know this is just y'all hedging after years of being disappointed and the trance that this forum can put people in, but the evidence is right in front of our face. This is going to be a big event, the question now is just how big and how long.

[T-Town]

18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

No ice, please. I like my snow neat. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I missed this.   

Wouldn’t really call it a full on meltdown more of just typical pre-event Andrew dramatics. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What happened to Andrew???

I asked him yesterday, Fred put him in timeout

[Doinko]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

JMA offers the snow lover's dream scenario. Kinda a GFS/Euro hybrid.

Looks great for PDX, that low brings cold air through the Gorge



 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

50 minutes ago, Bonovox said:

 

Haha, wow. 18z ICON.

Trough digs in better than the 12z. Better blocking up in Alaska too. Good trend!

[Christensen87]

3 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Hot takes from the forum over the last 24 hours:
"ICON is WILD, don't believe the extreme event it shows"
"EURO is WAY too cold, don't believe the extreme event it shows"
"Canadian is INSANE, don't believe the extreme event it shows"
"GFS is DRUNK, don't believe the extreme snow it shows"

I know this is just y'all hedging after years of being disappointed and the trance that this forum can put people in, but the evidence is right in front of our face. This is going to be a big event, the question now is just how big and how long.

I’m still not onboard unless CFS is

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Wouldn’t really call it a full on meltdown more of just typical pre-event Andrew dramatics. 

It was more of a forced timeout by Fred, but he'll be back well before the main event.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

I’m still not onboard unless CFS is

Arguably its disagreeability is a positive for our chances!

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

I’m still not onboard unless CFS is

You have a very unhealthy obsession with the CFS. Might be the only model worse than the GFS.