January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

It takes a really special event to go past 3-4 days usually it seems. Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what happens. Way too early to tell what’ll happen past next weekend at this point but the potential for this to be a 5-7 day event is there still. 

After the Pacific makes its best attempt to throw up a block Wednesday, everything sort of just shuts down out there. Not much in the way of organized weather to scour out what looks increasingly like an especially deep Arctic airmass over our area. I suspect that will change with time but right now there's no definitive signal to warm us in the mid range.

[SouthHillFrosty]

is the forum meet up happening and did we actually get shirts? If so, I need to move some client meetings around to come

[Kolk1604]

Who's comming with me? 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Seeing the slightest hint on the 18z ECMWF that the block is going to tilt more than the 12z.  That's a good thing.

[Doinko]

Looks like a winter storm warning is up for @SilverFallsAndrew

[Timmy]

Did Andrew die or get banned?

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Purdy!

[Ziess]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Did Andrew die or get banned?

Rumor is he got a time out. Not sure why though. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Did Andrew die or get banned?

A temporary timeout! 

[snow_wizard]

Block is definitely slightly west on this run just before the hammer drops.  Could be fun!

[RayRay]

gfs is still on.  

26 inches of snow in Redmond over the next two days. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

A temporary timeout! 

Pretty sad when an adult needs a time out. 

[van city]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Block is definitely slightly west on this run just before the hammer drops.  Could be fun!

Post maps 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, AbbyJr said:

Unfortunately, the Euro starts shifting that PV lobe eastward on the weekend. Do you think it’s being too progressive or probably accurate?

The Euro is deadly at this range, it’s not going to be too far off but there’s room for minor adjustments. If I were forecasting there I’d hug the EPS mean.

[GoldenEars]

I was going to check out the big dump of snow in the mountains around Whistler today but my wheel bearing had other plans . At least I snagged a few pics of the mountains finally covered in snow on my tow ride home.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Block is definitely slightly west on this run just before the hammer drops.  Could be fun!

Not that it means much... but block just looks a little weaker overall on 18Z run.   The position is essentially locked in now. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The Euro is deadly at this range, it’s not going to be too far off but there’s room for minor adjustments. If I were forecasting there I’d hug the EPS mean.

Always the way to go.    

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Block is definitely slightly west on this run just before the hammer drops.  Could be fun!

Thing is the block is tilted more positively so the TPV lobe won’t penetrate quite as far SW (verbatim).

Tiny change, though. Essentially the same.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

19 minutes ago, iFred said:

If you zoom in you can see rich Marriott in one of those little windows with a gun to his head.

[Requiem]

Looks like infinitesimally small changes on the 18z Euro 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Broke the cv axle on my 2022 ram trx. This is what happens when you have 900hp in a truck

 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Looks like infinitesimally small changes on the 18z Euro 

Now the focus shifts to the weekend and beyond.   Thursday and Friday are pretty much locked in.  

[umadbro]

[ajreich]

4 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Uh that’s juicy

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Even the ICON shows some snow Wednesday morning as well

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thing is the block is tilted more positively so the TPV lobe won’t penetrate quite as far SW (verbatim).

Tiny change, though. Essentially the same.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Verification scores the last 30 days. EURO has been the best followed by the GEM then the UKMET. GFS is 4th. The colder models have been more accurate. An Arctic Blast is coming. The GFS has really been struggling.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Verification scores the last 30 days. EURO has been the best followed by the GEM then the UKMET. GFS is 4th. The colder models have been more accurate. An Arctic Blast is coming. The GFS has really been struggling.

Yay GEM! Lock it in 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Verification scores the last 30 days. EURO has been the best followed by the GEM then the UKMET. GFS is 4th. The colder models have been more accurate. An Arctic Blast is coming. The GFS has really been struggling.

Interesting that those models converged with the Euro while the GFS went in a different direction. Oh look! It did the exact same thing last few days.

[The Cats Meow]

12 minutes ago, ajreich said:

Uh that’s juicy

It will likely trend north.

[Slushy Inch]

Other models probably undergoing snow. Gfs still farther east still has more snow and better coverage 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Now the focus shifts to the weekend and beyond.   Thursday and Friday are pretty much locked in.  

Is there any higher resolution model you like to use for up here as the event draws near? Terrain bleed makes all these snow maps useless obviously but I feel like even trying to evaluate precip+temps is difficult given the sponge-squeezing Rattlesnake does. Best I’ve pieced together is to look at wind direction, how the precip approaches and temps and then compare that to previous events? 

[iFred]

3 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Is there any higher resolution model you like to use for up here as the event draws near? Terrain bleed makes all these snow maps useless obviously but I feel like even trying to evaluate precip+temps is difficult given the sponge-squeezing Rattlesnake does. Best I’ve pieced together is to look at wind direction, how the precip approaches and temps and then compare that to previous events? 

HRRR, hi-res NAM, the much beloved ICON

[Ellsworb]

Well looks like things are gonna be pretty epic this week from serious mountain snow to hyper-cold temperatures regionwide and . . .. juuuuuuust maybe a few flakes of snow here on the east shore of Lake Tapps.

[Doinko]

This would be nice to see Wednesday morning

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Is there any higher resolution model you like to use for up here as the event draws near? Terrain bleed makes all these snow maps useless obviously but I feel like even trying to evaluate precip+temps is difficult given the sponge-squeezing Rattlesnake does. Best I’ve pieced together is to look at wind direction, how the precip approaches and temps and then compare that to previous events? 

For me in Leavenworth, I use the UW WRF 1.33km map.  I have found so often it is extremely accurate at this time range.  Nothing is 100%, but this is really good.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/load.cgi?images_d4/ww_snowacc.72.0000.gif

[Andstorm]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This would be nice to see Wednesday morning

Id take the Wednesday snow with a grain of salt. EURO also liked snow today and tomorrow. nails pattern and temps often but snow forecasts can be puzzling, due largely in part to the terrain and resolution issues. Wednesday appears to be “transition” day for sure after the warmer pattern earlier in week. 

[Ellsworb]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

For me in Leavenworth, I use the UW WRF 1.33km map.  I have found so often it is extremely accurate at this time range.  Nothing is 100%, but this is really good.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/load.cgi?images_d4/ww_snowacc.72.0000.gif

Leavenworth is going to be stunning this weekend.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Ellsworb said:

Leavenworth is going to be stunning this weekend.

That map shows 8-10 inches of snow, though the warm up on Tuesday could lead to rain.  Guessing even if it rains we will hold on to the snow.  Hopefully more later next week, and certainly cold.

[SnowWillarrive]

The SEA NWS afternoon discussion was kinda boring for Puget Sound.