January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Slushy Inch]

[Jbolin]

Pitchers and catchers report in a month. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Told you so.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The teleconnections were piss poor.

Rich Marriott never opened the door.

[Requiem]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Those are awful changes.

Awful and indicative that the "meet in the middle" solution is some sort of battleground ice wintry mix for the metro. Jan 1998 vibes 

[ShawniganLake]

The cold came in 2 waves in 98.  We can pray for a block reset.  

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

This seems more similar than not? Can we get some comparison shots?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Park it at the border and throw some storms are way. Fun stuff can happen.

[Weiner Warrior]

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Park it at the border and throw some storms are way. Fun stuff can happen.

South winds could be breezy at times down this way.

[OysterPrintout]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Awful and indicative that the "meet in the middle" solution is some sort of battleground ice wintry mix for the metro. Jan 1998 vibes 

If you're still at 950' you should be sitting in the catbird seat for tuesday, knock on wood but not a ton of time left for that to go too wrong.

[AbbyJr]

49 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is still worse. But the progressive trend needs to stop now or there’ll be problems.

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to me that the main problem is all the energy in the North Pacific interfering with the GOA block. Low's just popping up in the wrong place and thus not allowing a healthy block to form. The result is the block ends up skinny, breaks down quickly, and pushes the PV lobe east. It's unfortunate that even when we get so close something has to ruin it. What a waste of that off the charts -NAO unless things unexpectedly take a turn for the better. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The cold came in 2 waves in 98.  We can pray for a block reset.  

December 98?

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This seems more similar than not? Can we get some comparison shots?

It’s west and less south. Less cold. More snowy. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

As that great philosopher, Kenny Rogers once said:

"You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run. You never count your [snowfall] when you're [reading all the models]. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealing's done."

Maybe tonight you fold. Maybe you hold. But I'm pretty sure we haven't even been dealt the cards yet. It's close, but not yet. We'll know late Tuesday or Wednesday. If you want to walk or run, be that gambler. Me? I'm waiting until the hand is dealt at least. Why not?

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is a super fair point. We've probably been spoiled by the whole of the last several years!

I have to keep reminding myself we are in a Nino winter and if we can salvage some snow out of this, it’s a win. 
 

there had been a handful of dud winters since 2000.

‘04-‘05,  ‘09-‘10, ‘12-‘13,  ‘14-‘15, ‘15-‘16, ‘19-‘20

[LowerGarfield]

15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm on a couple non weather boards.  this is pretty tame.  but yea people freak when things go south at the 10yd line, so to speak

This reminds me of the 506 discord (the website that does NFL maps) only that talking about weather there and it's impact on sports broadcasting will get you banned.

[JW8]

18 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The highs and lows of this forum reminds me of a college football message board. We’re all sickos.

Except we have no offensive/defensive coordinators to fire!! Who can we blame?!

[Kolk1604]

Per EPS, still cold Thursday, Friday, and at least Saturday with region wide snow. 

Lets be real, we all thought winter was over a couple weeks ago. At least we had something to follow and it wasn't boring all winter.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Spokane NWS dropped our WSW for a WWA

yep its over

That's not a good thing? In SEA, that would be a good sign.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

South winds could be breezy at times down this way.

We can't even get a good one of those anymore  

Going on 7 years since our last halfway memorable south windstorm (4/7/2017).

I'm starting to sound like Tiger....

Edited January 8 by BLI snowman

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

If you're still at 950' you should be sitting in the catbird seat for tuesday, knock on wood but not a ton of time left for that to go too wrong.

No I'm in Eugene right now I'm planning on living vicariously through my fellow Portlanders and their traffic cams 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, JW8 said:

Except we have no offensive/defensive coordinators to fire!! Who can we blame?!

programmers developing the models?

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM in 20 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Per EPS, still cold Thursday, Friday, and at least Saturday with region wide snow. 

Lets be real, we all thought winter was over a couple weeks ago. At least we had something to follow and it wasn't boring all winter.

Agreed.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to me that the main problem is all the energy in the North Pacific interfering with the GOA block?

More westerly momentum thru the NE-Pacific and the Beaufort/AK blocking evacuates toward Siberia faster, so there’s less southward push on the TPV.

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, Phil said:

More westerly momentum over the NPAC and Beaufort/AK blocking evacuates toward Siberia faster, so there’s less southward push on the TPV.

Is there any hope left?

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

13 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Maybe the rapid sea ice growth for this time of year caused the models to fail

@iFred was talking about sea ice earlier...

[seattleweatherguy]

Suppose to get windy tommrow evening to Tuesday at some point

[Meatyorologist]

It'll reverse

[Deweydog]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

It'll reverse

It actually wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

[LowerGarfield]

5 minutes ago, Requiem said:

No I'm in Eugene right now I'm planning on living vicariously through my fellow Portlanders and their traffic cams 

Are you going to UO now???

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I mean, it still looks like decent chance for snow. In January. In a Niño winter.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

That's not a good thing? In SEA, that would be a good sign.

totals have been cut in half.  more rain than snow on Tuesday in the valley here

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Is there any hope left?

Of course there is. The GFS and Euro could easily halt the progressive trend tomorrow.

But to be honest, I’m skeptical that will happen. Seldom are arctic airmasses under-modeled inside 96hrs. And the inflection point in the pattern is < 48hrs away, running out of time to change the outcome.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Deweydog said:

It actually wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

Model riding punishes my hubris.

[AbbyJr]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

More westerly momentum thru the NE-Pacific and the Beaufort/AK blocking evacuates toward Siberia faster, so there’s less southward push on the TPV.

Do you think that solution is pretty much locked in now or is there still time a miracle?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Well this sucks. It'll switch back to what it was though, keep hope in these desperate times. 06z gfs will look like today's 00z euro, the 12z gfs will look like today's 12z euro, and tommorows 12z euro will suck but then the 00z will be great. 00z tommorow will have a great gem, gfs, icon, euro, cfs, ukmet, and all will be well on the forums. Good night!

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It'll reverse

Western WA people that want snow should be happy with trends. EPS more snow and many other models.

[GHweatherChris]

So glad I have my new job to focus on, actually makes this burn feel less stressful.