January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Prairiedog]

39 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

New 7 day from KPTV. Good forecast for now. This weekend will likely be frozen for most people with the chance of snow depending on how the weekend system tracks. Also gonna be windy as the east winds feed us cold air from the Cold Pool in the Columbia Basin.

40 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

New 7 day from KPTV. Good forecast for now. This weekend will likely be frozen for most people with the chance of snow depending on how the weekend system tracks. Also gonna be windy as the east winds feed us cold air from the Cold Pool in the Columbia Basin.

 

Definitely colder than Rod's 7-day this am.  He didn't have us below 40 for highs.  He hedged a little with the usual "things could change".  No sh&t Sherlock.  I'm most interested in how the AI modeling ends up doing when it's all said and done.  Not a fan but the dam has broke.  AI is here to stay whether I like it or not.  So, how good is it? 

[TT-SEA]

Arctic front is a little slower on the 12Z GFS... still above freezing in Seattle at 7 p.m. that night.    Maybe slower means snowier though.  

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I love that progression on the icon. Wish other models were on board with it. 

Few tweaks and that’s a moneymaker 

[Prairiedog]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hope y’all are doing fine. Picked up some snow over the weekend. 2.5”, still a little on the ground, but it’s raining and 34.3 right now. Weekend temps were about climo, 40/32 on Saturday (midnight high), 41/32 yesterday. Tomorrow and Wednesday look very snowy. Pic is from Saturday morning. 

I'll be interested in comparing your totals with Chehalem Mtn.  You will outperform but still trying to figure out why you're colder there.  Right now it's 36f with chunky rain there by the towers. 

[TT-SEA]

Arctic air never does reach Portland on this run... still warm down there on Friday afternoon.  

[TT-SEA]

Arctic front snow from Thursday morning through Friday morning... 

[Kolk1604]

Wow... ICON reloads on Monday 

 

[Doinko]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Wow... ICON reloads on Monday 

 

After major snow in the Willamette Valley it looks like

[TT-SEA]

And we have a major snowstorm on Saturday per 12Z GFS.

[MossMan]

All snow now and 33.8 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

Quite the battle ground in terms of temps on Saturday morning.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

I’m getting really tired of 22 degree rain. 

[Front Ranger]

GEM is better for cold lover/bet hedgers, as it takes the Friday/Saturday system further south than 0z run, into the central OR coast.

GFS is worse, as it has a stronger low coming in much further north and more rapidly warming 850s than 6z.

Yeah...I know the GFS shows a ton of snow for the Puget Sound.

[TT-SEA]

Snowstorm is moving north on Saturday during the day...

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

GEM is better for cold lover/bet hedgers, as it takes the Friday/Saturday system further south than 0z run, into the central OR coast.

GFS is worse, as it has a stronger low coming in much further north and more rapidly warming 850s than 6z.

Yeah...I know the GFS shows a ton of snow for the Puget Sound.

Yeah... Seattle is above freezing by Saturday afternoon on 12Z GFS.  

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[North_County]

Looks like a trace of snow at Lynden. Its cold enough here, but moisture hasn't made it this far east yet.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Look at all that GFS Pepto and it's not at the end. 

[TacomaWx]

This would be a very impactful January 2012 like scenario. The slushfest after the snow and ice would be a disaster. 

[TT-SEA]

As Jared mentioned... GEM is a little colder and the battle ground is farther south on Friday and Saturday. 

 

[North_County]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snowstorm is moving north on Saturday during the day...

 

Pepto.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nice. Looks like about 20” here

33F and snowing lightly right now.  Not much accumulation but things are white.  
 

Farther north on the island they are expected to get up to 4” today. 

[Doinko]

GEM is very snowy for PDX

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM definitely moving towards GFS solution by later in the weekend though... further abandoning the idea of the TPV being parked over the PNW.  

 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

This would be a very impactful January 2012 like scenario. The slushfest after the snow and ice would be a disaster. 

May not end up being a bad analog, as far as local impacts, temps, and storm track.

Let's hope not though, for our OR brethren.

[Mid Valley Duck]

It's over fellas. Arctic front doesnt even make it to Olympia

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As Jared mentioned... GEM is a little colder and the battle ground is farther south on Friday and Saturday. 

 

Winter Battleground!

Whoever gets to be in that will see lots of snow and ice.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

May not end up being a bad analog, as far as local impacts, temps, and storm track.

Let's hope not though, for our OR brethren.

Yeah, somewhere between PDX and SEA is going to be right on the line. Ice is starting to look like a real possibility with the upper levels warming and cold likely not scouring out as quick as the models show. 

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As Jared mentioned... GEM is a little colder and the battle ground is farther south on Friday and Saturday. 

 

 Better to be on the north side of that this far out. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

What a nightmare.

[Doinko]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

What a nightmare.

Yeah I was really hoping for the full blast scenario. At least hoping for some cold Gorge outflow and a bit of snow. Something like the ICON would be great

[Ziess]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

It's over fellas. Arctic front doesnt even make it to Olympia

What the heck is the GFS smoking? Crazy to be this close to an event and still have such disparity.... I feel like we've been here before though unfortunately. 

[TT-SEA]

Slight coating of slush here this morning... drizzling now though.  

[Kolk1604]

I'm taking the ICON 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

I'm taking the ICON 

If only.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Yeah I was really hoping for the full blast scenario. At least hoping for some cold Gorge outflow and a bit of snow. Something like the ICON would be great

Reminding me of December 2022 in some ways. Decent low level blast but the upper levels were rapidly warming by the time the cold air even made it here on the surface.

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, Ziess said:

What the heck is the GFS smoking? Crazy to be this close to an event and still have such disparity.... I feel like we've been here before though unfortunately. 

Why is it the gfs that is causing the disparity? Maybe it’s the icon that’s smoking. They’ve all been creeping toward the gfs the last few runs.

GEM and EURO both had us in the low teens only two days ago and that’s completely off the table now. They’re the ones that seem crazy in retrospect. 

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Slight coating of slush here this morning... drizzling now though.  

Coral bark is such a lovely tree. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM made a move toward the ICON.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Coral bark is such a lovely tree. 

For sure... beautiful in all seasons.