January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Front Ranger]

Interestingly, the Euro warms the upper levels much faster than other models days 5-6. But not enough to probably matter too much for surface temps or precip type right away.

[TT-SEA]

Cold air entrenched down south on Sunday... but moderating up here.  

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

It's coming!!

Unless you live north of Everett

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro send brunt of storm energy way south Oregon.  This close and some models will be way way off on this. 

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z vs 12z Euro for the weekend. It actually seems to drastically reduce the precip down the valley. Not a dramatic reduction for PDX though and the northern extent of the precip hasn't changed too much here either. 

 

I assume partially as a result of the additional suppression-- interesting to see other models come in wetter. Still, this is plenty moisture for any snow event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Cold air entrenched down south on Sunday... but moderating up here.  

Yeah, at face value it looks like the low level cold may get pretty stuck. Amped up 2013 redux?

[MossMan]

For everyone north of Olympia we better hope the EURO is out to lunch. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Cold air entrenched down south on Sunday... but moderating up here.  

I don’t trust anything this far out anymore. 72 hours is good enough

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Interestingly, the Euro warms the upper levels much faster than other models days 5-6. But not enough to probably matter too much for surface temps or precip type right away.

Much less ridging than the 12Z ECMWF and way less than the GFS by Monday   I think the system to the north allows for more onshore flow than if there was ridging.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z vs 12z Euro for the weekend. It actually seems to drastically reduce the precip down the valley. Not a dramatic reduction for PDX though and the northern extent of the precip hasn't changed too much here either. 

 

The system never makes it fully inland on Saturday and just wanders offshore, drops south then just dissipates it seems. Probably the reason for less precipitation.

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

Taking a look at all the 00z runs for the weekend.

The ICON, UKMET and Euro are team suppressed and cold, there is actually very good agreement between these 3.

 

GFS is very progressive and spreads precip way north and the GEM tries to strike some kind of balance between the others and the GFS. 

[MossMan]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Much less ridging than the 12Z ECMWF and way less than the GFS by Monday   I think the system to the north allows for more onshore flow than if there was ridging.  

No good. This is a bad run all the way around. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Taking a look at all the 00z runs for the weekend.

The ICON, UKMET and Euro are team suppressed and cold, there is actually very good agreement between these 3.

 

GFS is very progressive and spreads precip way north and the GEM tries to strike some kind of balance between the others and the GFS. 

Yeah, I'm thinking there's a good chance we see a decent event at least

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For everyone north of Olympia we better hope the EURO is out to lunch. 

Who gets the goods on snowfalls is often subject to last-minute changes.

[TT-SEA]

Snow to the north by Monday but that is also bringing SSE flow to western WA.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

No good. This is a bad run all the way around. 

Ehhh... Pretty sure you get cold and snow. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Much less ridging than the 12Z ECMWF and way less than the GFS by Monday   I think the system to the north allows for more onshore flow than if there was ridging.  

Yeah, might be the most progressive run yet from the Euro in the mid range.

But who cares...it trended significantly colder in the near term, which is first step. Get that cold air in place.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No good. This is a bad run all the way around. 

Plenty cold, let’s wait and see what happens.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No good. This is a bad run all the way around. 

But you get snow going into the cold on Thursday so its all good.  

[snow_wizard]

The good news for Seattle is the quite cold GEFS still had a lot of snow on this run.  Deeper cold didn't keep the moisture suppressed.  Just looking at models like the ICON and ECMWF it's pretty obvious bringing precip another 50 miles north would be effortless with the strength of the low that is going to be in play.

The GEFS has 5 consecutive freezing high temps for SEA BTW.

[MossMan]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ehhh... Pretty sure you get cold and snow. 

I want more than a half inch with the arctic front though. According to the Euro that’s all I get. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

The precip shield extended further north but the actual lows were slightly further south. Big difference between the EURO and GFS is the subtropical ridge off California. It’s more amplified on the GFS shoving the system much further to the north. 

[TT-SEA]

Projected snow depth on Tuesday morning. 

[Slushy Inch]

Uw gfs for Arctic front snow. Somewhere could get lucky. Ready for Cliff Mass article treating this models as gospel.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No good. This is a bad run all the way around. 

We’ll see where the EPS goes with this. 

[CasuallyFoxy]

70 mph winds on the south Washington coast with that frontal passage just now.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like another potential cold shot.  Graph Cast and ensembles have hinted at it.

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I want more than a half inch with the arctic front though. According to the Euro that’s all I get. 

Amen! Hoping it’s juicier than modeled or we get some stalling CZ action

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Uw gfs for Arctic front snow. Somewhere could get lucky. Ready for Cliff Mass article treating this models as gospel.

The precip map from the ECMWF late Thursday morning looks surprisingly similar.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The good news for Seattle is the quite cold GEFS still had a lot of snow on this run.  Deeper cold didn't keep the moisture suppressed.  Just looking at models like the ICON and ECMWF it's pretty obvious bringing precip another 50 miles north would be effortless with the strength of the low that is going to be in play.

The GEFS has 5 consecutive freezing high temps for SEA BTW.

To be fair, with an ensemble mean this probably isn't the case. It just reflects both the very snowy and very cold members, but not in relation to each other.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, CasuallyFoxy said:

70 mph winds on the south Washington coast with that frontal passage just now.

I posted about it with a radar gif. A euro run had 50 mph inland 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Mark updated his 7 day. Wednesday morning is now a First Alert weather day with snow.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, CasuallyFoxy said:

70 mph winds on the south Washington coast with that frontal passage just now.

Sustained!?

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, I'm thinking there's a good chance we see a decent event at least

Yeah some solid improvements in the models for us tonight. Probably pretty good odds of getting a legit snow and ice storm, maybe more snow than ice. 

I get the impression that the GFS will shift more towards the others than the other way around. Who knows though, I thought the GFS would completely cave to the Euro the past 2 days and that didn't happen. 

[GobBluth]

Wtf is the euro doing middle of next week, block rebuilds in the Pacific?

[Slushy Inch]

Reload!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like another potential cold shot.  Graph Cast and ensembles have hinted at it.

ECMWF says that might evolve into a very wet scenario... all rain with this feature for the lowlands with southerly flow.  

[CasuallyFoxy]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Sustained!?

I think it was reporting gust with no sustained, but it doesn't strictly say either way.  Toke point was gusting 67 but is now reporting 0, guess the power is out.

[MossMan]

Surging and flickering here but still on. Looks like the lake house at Goodwin is now out though. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Uw gfs for Arctic front snow. Somewhere could get lucky. Ready for Cliff Mass article treating this models as gospel.

Could you post the full run pls?