January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Weiner Warrior]

It will happen

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHill said:

the GFS is going to be right again

You mean it actually was once?

[OysterPrintout]

GFS with a pretty hard cave to the euro for the low track for tonight here and snow so feeling pretty good about it for Friday system too.

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

It will happen

GFS. GFS please save us

[SouthHillFrosty]

Only time I remember the GFS been so consistent about something…. Was last year and it busted in a similar situation…..

[RentonHill]

And all of us in the EPSL are going to be on pins and needles watching to see whether the low goes over or under the Olympics 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I still say the GFS almost have to go colder at some point.  It would be shocking to have the ECMWF off by so much at this range.

Arctic air never even gets here on the 12Z GFS... but doesn't seem to matter in terms of snowfall.    Upper level temps are really marginal by Saturday in the Seattle area.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I'm excited for the snow, but my kids are going to probably end up being in school till my birthday at the end of June.

Move them to Seattle Public Schools! 

[Phil]

The only time the GFS scores coups is when it’s showing the most “meh” outcome of all guidance. Infuriating.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like the gfs isn’t really backing down

And the CMC remains much more team Euro.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The only time the GFS scores coups is when it’s showing the most “meh” outcome of all guidance. Infuriating.

For Portland people that’s exactly what it’s showing!!

[BLI snowman]

GFS is still awful. PDX never goes to freezing and SEA is in the mid 30s by Saturday afternoon. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wow. Bullseye  

[MWG]

Sigh...NWS in Medford took out the 1 to 3 inches of snow in their forecast to maybe half an inch 

[Mid Valley Duck]

The GFS has trended south but still a good score for the Seattle folks. But I think this bad boy is trending south down the home stretch.

 

[RentonHill]

This is gonna be perfect for sledding 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Bro you only ever post a map that shows snow up there

[Front Ranger]

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

And the CMC remains much more team Euro.

Probably going to be somewhat of a compromise. I think the gfs is too far north with its solutions…but might not be entirely wrong. BIG euro run in a bit. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, RentonHill said:

This is gonna be perfect for sledding 

 

I5 during the storm 

[snow_wizard]

I have to say Seattle is looking good right now.  Almost no doubt the GFS is at the outside of the envelope on the warm side, and little doubt the other models will trend a little bit toward the GFS in the home stretch.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS is still awful. PDX never goes to freezing and SEA is in the mid 30s by Saturday afternoon. 

 

With raging east winds? This has to be garbage 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The SREF a NOAA ensemble model runs every 6 hours. Here’s its latest run. The ensemble mean tracks the Friday system through Central OR.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Probably going to be somewhat of a compromise. I think the gfs is too far north with its solutions…but might not be entirely wrong. BIG euro run in a bit. 

Yup.  You have to like where we are sitting here.

[Front Ranger]

CMC also not as cold 850s days 4-5 as its 0z run. So a move towards the GFS there.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

With raging east winds? This has to be garbage 

Actually a south wind in Seattle on Saturday thanks to the low going north.  

[Tyler Mode]

Quite a contrast...

[Mid Valley Duck]

Here's why the GFS is trending south and is going to cave to the other model solutions. The subtropical ridge is centering further south each of the past few runs on the GFS. Today's 12z on top followed by last nights and then yesterday's 12z.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  You have to like where we are sitting here.

Yeah, I think at the very least we will get a little snow and some decent cold. Could get a huge snow event too and some ice. Really can’t complain with either scenario but I’m hoping we avoid freezing rain. 

[Randyc321]

25 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m almost in the blue! 

I'm almost in the gray.

[Doinko]

CMC is a good snow/sleet/ice storm

 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The GFS has trended south but still a good score for the Seattle folks. But I think this bad boy is trending south down the home stretch.

 

Has it?

[snow_wizard]

Great run for Seattle outside of the brief south wind.  Very unlikely that part happens.

[BLI snowman]

GFS definitely on an island at this point. It's lost the Canadian.

 

[snow_wizard]

I've seen the GFS stubbornly hang onto bogus solutions to the bitter end at times.

[Andstorm]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS is still awful. PDX never goes to freezing and SEA is in the mid 30s by Saturday afternoon. 

 

Yeah that’s definitely a model issue. Also, ensembles  tell a completely different story. Very few members that have temps remain above freezing. Most are well below. 

[Deweydog]

Gorge gradient Sunday/Monday is pretty epic. Basin cold pool to end all basin cold pools.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I've seen the GFS stubbornly hang onto bogus solutions to the bitter end at times.

Didn't it do that last December as well? It was showing a snowstorm for Seattle until the very end while everything else disagreed