January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Gorge gradient Sunday/Monday is pretty epic. Basin cold pool to end all basin cold pools.

East wind bonanza with a ridge building in fast... the complete opposite of the 00Z ECMWF which showed a reload forming.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Andstorm said:

Yeah that’s definitely a model issue. Also, ensembles  tell a completely different story. Very few members that have temps remain above freezing. Most are well below. 

It makes sense for it to be wrong since it scores behind all other major models. But we shall see.

[Mercurial]

Picked up another 3-4” here with moderate to heavy snow ongoing.  Pack is starting to get pretty good, up to 10-11”

 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

Guys how am I gonna get any work done this week?!? Maybe fred can do some more forum maintenance  

[Andstorm]

 

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Gorge gradient Sunday/Monday is pretty epic. Basin cold pool to end all basin cold pools.

Yeah this is THE setup for cold. Now we just need to retain the cold column through weekend so we keep snow. That’s looking marginal right now. EURO better than GFS. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Has it?

Yes it has trended south, even while strengthening the low each run.

[Olive1010]

Over a foot for Seattle total 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

East wind bonanza with a ridge building in fast... the complete opposite of the 00Z ECMWF which showed a reload forming.  

Almost time for tomatoes! Yay. I know so many people who will be happy to know winter is effectively over by next week. Thankfully that low will be trending to north Vancouver Island, so none of us have to deal with cold and icy concrete.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow from now through early next week per 12Z GEM.   No north or south shift either way... right in line with its 00Z run but with a little less precip overall. 

[jakerepp]

Just now, Mercurial said:

Picked up another 3-4” here with moderate to heavy snow ongoing.  Pack is starting to get pretty good, up to 10-11”

 

Ugh, so beautiful!

[iFred]

1 minute ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Guys how am I gonna get any work done this week?!? Maybe fred can do some more forum maintenance  

Its already over for you. Just accept that the low will go too north, we'll all be enjoying temps in the mid 50s, and we can get on with our spring planting. This year I am trying for avocados and kiwis.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, iFred said:

Almost time for tomatoes! Yay. I know so many people who will be happy to know winter is effectively over by next week. Thankfully that low will be trending to north Vancouver Island, so none of us have to deal with cold and icy concrete.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Gorge gradient Sunday/Monday is pretty epic. Basin cold pool to end all basin cold pools.

Big difference over there too between GFS and CMC.

At hour 120, GFS has Pendleton at 14. CMC has them at -8.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

He’s reverse psychology-ing this thing into existence  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Gorge gradient Sunday/Monday is pretty epic. Basin cold pool to end all basin cold pools.

Bring on those icy cold east winds!!!

[umadbro]

Really starting to look epic for the northern willamette valley. Should be fun.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Big difference over there too between GFS and CMC.

At hour 120, GFS has Pendleton at 14. CMC has them at -8.

That difference would be NOTICEABLE.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Yes it has trended south, even while strengthening the low each run.

Gotcha, you mean prior to landfall.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

If I had to wager money I would bet on a more southerly track for the weekend system, but I wouldn’t choose to wager money this far out.

[TT-SEA]

My son just texted me asking if we finally know what's going to happen since its Tuesday now.  I said nope!   

Over the weekend I used Matt's advice and told him wait until Tuesday and we will know.   We do not.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I still say the GFS almost have to go colder at some point.  It would be shocking to have the ECMWF off by so much at this range.

2 days ago I said around longbeach to Astoria would be land fall guess. That's going to be close.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My son just texted me asking if we finally know what's going to happen since its Tuesday now.  I said nope!   

Over the weekend I used Matt's advice and told him wait until Tuesday and we will know.   We do not.  

We know it’s going to snow tonight!

[Sometimesdylan]

Good morning from Juneau!

 

18 degrees and no wind at the airport this AM.

Sunrise will be at 840am (currently 7:27)

sunset at 330pm

looks like the north wind is starting to blow a little bit in the ocean channels, temps up to mid 20s where the wind is blowing. Should start seeing even cooler temps the next few days as the arctic air comes. 
 

maybe an overrunning snow event this weekend, but with these arctic high events the models always flip flop how they end / snow till the last minute…. 
 

coffee is good life is good enjoy your day 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

The only time the GFS scores coups is when it’s showing the most “meh” outcome of all guidance. Infuriating.

You mean most realistic

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

My son just texted me asking if we finally know what's going to happen since its Tuesday now.  I said nope!   

Over the weekend I used Matt's advice and told him what until Tuesday and we will know.   We do not.  

It's disconcerting. We're 2-3 days out and the uncertainty level feels like it normally would around days 4-5.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  The GFS takes SEA down to 15 later in the run.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My son just texted me asking if we finally know what's going to happen since its Tuesday now.  I said nope!   

Over the weekend I used Matt's advice and told him wait until Tuesday and we will know.   We do not.  

Arctic front: yes

Snow with arctic front: yes, but light

More snow later: who knows

[SnowWillarrive]

24 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Trended north 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We know it’s going to snow tonight!

Not for him!

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow from now through early next week per 12Z GEM.   No north or south shift either way... right in line with its 00Z run but with a little less precip overall. 

I smell a compromise coming.  In this case that would be awesome!

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's disconcerting. We're 2-3 days out and the uncertainty level feels like it normally would around days 4-5.

I really think the southerly trends are gonna win out…or at least a compromise. 

[westcoastexpat]

I definitely like the odds for a more southerly solution here. Sucks for me but I know models, particularly the GFS, can underestimate the depth of the cold pool and usher it out too quickly. Especially with how dry this air mass will be inland, I would expect a more southerly moisture plume, which is why a GEM or ECMWF solution would be my bet.

Definitely think Portland folks are sitting in a good spot. Of course a tick north would be devastating but sometimes you have to thread the needle to have a chance to get in on the really good stuff.

Meanwhile I will make peace with cold and dry up here.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Arctic front: yes

Snow with arctic front: yes, but light

More snow later: who knows

Actually not totally sure about an actual arctic front.   GFS doesn't even show that down here... arctic air never makes it.    It just gets cold from outflow.  

[snow_wizard]

Talk about a case where you want a ridge to build in afterward...

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

12 minutes ago, iFred said:

Its already over for you. Just accept that the low will go too north, we'll all be enjoying temps in the mid 50s, and we can get on with our spring planting. This year I am trying for avocados and kiwis.

I actually grow kiwis out here

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I smell a compromise coming.  In this case that would be awesome!

Not sure... GEM barely budged at all with northward extent.  

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Actually not totally sure about an actual arctic front.   GFS doesn't even show that down here... arctic air never makes it.    It just gets cold from outflow.  

It does have some semblence of an Arctic front Thursday night.  Drops well below freezing.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not sure... GEM barely budged at all with northward extent.  

I’m banking on precip Shield extending further north than shown. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I really think the southerly trends are gonna win out…or at least a compromise. 

Yeah, compromise seems most likely, with someone between PDX and OLM being the big winner. 

But the southerly trends overall seem to have stopped with this morning's runs. Euro will be telling!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure... GEM barely budged at all with northward extent.  

Same with GFS on the other extreme.