January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

With the data we have it is looking bad for seattle if snow is what you want, better chances for cold though.

[Chewbacca Defense]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There's about 100 things that all had to go right for it to have that outcome. He was apparently about 10 rows forward of it and said the sound was deafening to the point of making him physically ill, although that might have been from the depressurization. He’s been a complete mess since then.

Everyone on that plane is getting paid.

First and foremost the fact that it let go at 16k feet and not at 35k feet.  I doubt it would have brought the plane down, but there would have definitely been fatalities.  Always wear your seatbelt when you are in your seat boys and girls.

[Cold Snap]

I’m really starting to get the feeling now that the GFS is out to lunch and that this is going to hit the Portland area hard.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It was retrofitted, so it adds more nuance to it. Not a good look though that the plane had been suspended from Hawaii flights due to repeated cabin pressure warning lights.

Could you imagine that happening at 35k feet halfway between Hawaii and the mainland…,

[Requiem]

Models look good this afternoon, fellow Oregonians. Rooting for the EURO to moisten up a bit as that storm hits southern Oregon-- and I have no doubt the precip shield will extent well to the north a la February 2014.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Sorry if i missed someone already posting it but here's the WRF 

That works! 

[Kolk1604]

It's official, the Euro is an outlier. 

 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

Someone may have posted already but a WWA up for pdx tonight. Sitting at 350’ west hills area, curious to see how this first shot plays out  

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO6 AM PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 500 FEET... 

* WHAT...Snow expected above 500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. 

* WHERE...Greater Portland Metro Area. 

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Wednesday. 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is mainly expected to impact higher elevations such as the West Hills. Slushy slow will be possible down to the valley floor, but little or no accumulation is expected below 500 feet.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Could you imagine that happening at 35k feet halfway between Hawaii and the mainland…,

I don't even know what would happen. They'd have to descend to 10k feet or so, drastically decreasing fuel economy and possibly wouldn't be able to make it back to the departure airport or to the destination. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It was retrofitted, so it adds more nuance to it. Not a good look though that the plane had been suspended from Hawaii flights due to repeated cabin pressure warning lights.

Retrofitted?  Not sure what you mean by that, it was a brand new airplane (delivered in early November).  And yeah the fact Alaska restricted it from ETOPS flights but did not ground it is not going to go down well for Alaska from a PR perspective. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Could you imagine that happening at 35k feet halfway between Hawaii and the mainland…,

Well you just unlocked a new nightmare scenario for me. Thanks!  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Could you imagine that happening at 35k feet halfway between Hawaii and the mainland…,

Alaska airlines had already decided not to fly that particular plane to Hawaii or anywhere over the ocean because the auto pressurization fail light had come in on previous flights.  That may or may not have been related to this incident, since warming lights like that occasionally have false alarms.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I don't even know what would happen. They'd have to descend to 10k feet or so, drastically decreasing fuel economy and possibly wouldn't be able to make it back to the departure airport or to the destination. 

 

[Deweydog]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

Retrofitted?  Not sure what you mean by that, it was a brand new airplane (delivered in early November).  And yeah the fact Alaska restricted it from ETOPS flights but did not ground it is not going to go down well for Alaska from a PR perspective. 

Well, it occurred in a row where airlines if they wanted to could switch the plug for a emergency exit depending on how they wanted to configure seating.

[Perturbed Member]

17 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

if that thing was at 30k ft everyone's families would have been getting paid instead.  I'm not getting on a Max 8 if I can help it.  D**n planes are cursed (and shitty constructed apparently)

Pretty sad to see what happened to Boeing ever since they merged with McDonnell Douglas. The 737 airframe should have been retired long ago in favor of either a new from the ground up design or something based on the 757. The bean counters didn't like that though. 

Aviation is the wrong place for shoddy construction, corner cutting and half assery. 

[LowerGarfield]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I don't even know what would happen. They'd have to descend to 10k feet or so, drastically decreasing fuel economy and possibly wouldn't be able to make it back to the departure airport or to the destination. 

could they notify the coast guard or navy and see if they could land on a carrier if they couldn't make it to North America or HNL?

[jakerepp]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

could they notify the coast guard or navy and see if they could land on a carrier if they couldn't make it to North America or HNL?

I don't think a carrier would have quite enough runway. They'd unfortunately have to burn as much fuel as possible, so they'd probably try to determine what landmass they could actually get closest to. 

[MossMan]

Home for lunch…The west wind has very suddenly arrived here…Along with my Amazon delivery! Everything is coming together!  

[Chewbacca Defense]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I don't even know what would happen. They'd have to descend to 10k feet or so, drastically decreasing fuel economy and possibly wouldn't be able to make it back to the departure airport or to the destination. 

It would be pretty dicey for sure, presumably they would have to carry enough fuel for that contingency, part of the ETOPS requirement.  I'm not sure if ETOPS aircraft have longer duration Passenger Oxygen systems.  They are typically 12 minutes or 22 minutes (that I am aware of).

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Pretty sad to see what happened to Boeing ever since they merged with McDonnell Douglas. The 737 airframe should have been retired long ago in favor of either a new from the ground up design or something based on the 757. The bean counters didn't like that though. 

Aviation is the wrong place for shoddy construction, corner cutting and half assery. 

Covid cars, Covid houses, Covid planes…

[Winterdog]

The NAM shows Everett to Seattle less than an inch through Friday, Portland 11 inches.  It's gonna be cold though.  I won't be able to make a snowman but I will be able go out and trip over a mole hill 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rod still backing the GFS. Some snow Friday then a big ice storm into Saturday. Then fast warmup on Sunday.

[sherwoodor]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I don't think a carrier would have quite enough runway. They'd unfortunately have to burn as much fuel as possible, so they'd probably try to determine what landmass they could actually get closest to. 

it would be a water "landing" no two ways about it. 

 

there are no carriers just waiting/hanging out in the mid pacific currently, and even if there was, jets like this do not have any of the arresting equipment necessary to allow for a carrier landing. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I don't think a carrier would have quite enough runway. They'd unfortunately have to burn as much fuel as possible, so they'd probably try to determine what landmass they could actually get closest to. 

Not even close.

[Chewbacca Defense]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Well, it occurred in a row where airlines if they wanted to could switch the plug for a emergency exit depending on how they wanted to configure seating.

Ah, yeah, but it came from Boeing with that plug, so its effectively a "factory installed option."  I watched a video on this last night, and apparently as part of the final test,Boeing pressurizes the airframe to 1.5 times its operating limit to ensure there are no leaks.

That said there is definitely a manufacturing defect here (quality issue) either at Spirit in Wichita or at the FAL down in Renton. 

It will definitely be interesting to see what the investigation uncovers.  The fasteners should not be able to rattle loose if installed properly.

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It would be pretty dicey for sure, presumably they would have to carry enough fuel for that contingency, part of the ETOPS requirement.  I'm not sure if ETOPS aircraft have longer duration Passenger Oxygen systems.  They are typically 12 minutes or 22 minutes (that I am aware of).

Right, not entirely sure how ETOPS would work in that situation. Oxygen masks definitely wouldn't last very long. It's generally gives enough time for the plane to drop to an altitude you can breathe at. I think the number I remember was 7 minutes but it definitely depends on the aircraft. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Covid cars, Covid houses, Covid planes…

My truck was manufactured in February 2020…So one of the last built before SHTF happened! 

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, sherwoodor said:

it would be a water "landing" no two ways about it. 

 

there are no carriers just waiting/hanging out in the mid pacific currently, and even if there was, jets like this do not have any of the arresting equipment necessary to allow for a carrier landing. 

Hence the desire to burn as much fuel as possible, knowing you are ditching for sure and want to do that as low of a speed as you can.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

Ah, yeah, but it came from Boeing with that plug, so its effectively a "factory installed option."  I watched a video on this last night, and apparently as part of the final test,Boeing pressurizes the airframe to 1.5 times its operating limit to ensure there are no leaks.

That said there is definitely a manufacturing defect here (quality issue) either at Spirit in Wichita or at the FAL down in Renton. 

It will definitely be interesting to see what the investigation uncovers.  The fasteners should not be able to rattle loose if installed properly.

Yeah, retrofit probably isn’t the correct terminology. Maybe a pre-retrofit? No contradiction in terms there…

[Randyc321]

No more plane stuff guys.  Too much

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon way south, misses portland .

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New blog post from Mark.

 

 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The NAM shows Everett to Seattle less than an inch through Friday, Portland 11 inches.  It's gonna be cold though.  I won't be able to make a snowman but I will be able go out and trip over a mole hill 

Well I heard next winter will be off the charts! 

I know I know…Phil will be right with me…

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Pretty sad to see what happened to Boeing ever since they merged with McDonnell Douglas. The 737 airframe should have been retired long ago in favor of either a new from the ground up design or something based on the 757. The bean counters didn't like that though. 

Aviation is the wrong place for shoddy construction, corner cutting and half assery. 

I've heard the McDonnell Douglas theory as well, and I wonder if it has anything to do with them moving the HQ to Chicago.  Pretty easy to get detached from the goings on of the company.  My global HQ is in France, and there is a definite difference in management oversight and expectations, especially when it comes to driving demands and making operational decisions.

At one point we were owned by a group in the UK, and their mandate was "go forth and make money, we don't care how you do it as long as you send us a profit check every quarter"  Company ran like a Swiss watch and was very profitable during that period.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

could they notify the coast guard or navy and see if they could land on a carrier if they couldn't make it to North America or HNL?

No way could a passenger jet land on a carrier. Those things have short runways. Only reason they can be used at all is the aircraft assigned to them use special means to accelerate (catapults) and land (tailhooks and arresting wires).

If it had to land over sea, best thing would be to ditch it near a big ship that could mount rescue operations.

[MossMan]

Think I will go ahead and get the generator staged…Power is getting all blinky! 

[Cold Snap]

I have a feeling the GFS is going to cave but knowing how stubborn it has been I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t.

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No way could a passenger jet land on a carrier. Those things have short runways. Only reason they can be used at all is the aircraft assigned to them use special means to accelerate (catapults) and land (tailhooks and arresting wires).

If it had to land over sea, best thing would be to ditch it near a big ship that could mount rescue operations.

C-130 Hercules has landed on a carrier. Pretty impressive. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

31 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yep, NAM officially team Euro now.

That's just the surface low too. The parent low is still well off to the west.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

I have a feeling the GFS is going to cave but knowing how stubborn it has been I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t.

Everything will cave to the GFS showing American technological superiority.