January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just amazing how cold the models show it being when the snow comes into the picture from the big system.

It’s just a frigid anomalous Arctic airmass dropping down. Glad we’re going to get a part of it rather than it all sliding east of the Rockies.

 

[snow_wizard]

A little cold air reinforcement showing up on the 18z GEFS around the 14th.

[Hawksfan2008]

Then GFS has been trending more accurate recently but slightly behind the EURO. 

[LowerGarfield]

21 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

I think you're confusing me with someone else?

I would be shocked if there was trace. Except maybe for us Canadians lol

Are you originally from Eastern Canada? If so, how do you like your climate vs the old one?

[snow_wizard]

If that second event happens later in the month it would make this the coldest January in a LONG time.  Some things do support it.

[Doinko]

HRRR is snowy tonight, definitely overdone a bit but I'm still really looking forward to seeing some snow in the air

[iFred]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Two insane GFS runs now.  Single digits are new!

WORST OF THE WORST.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'm surprised there isn't a high wind watch for my area if the EPS is showing these wind speeds. Most show over 60 mph. Even the mean shows over 50 mph. The control run shows 60 mph. This is for Troutdale, not Crown Point. If Troutdale gets these winds, Crown Point would be over 100+ mph. This could be epic winds. I've never seen these types of winds ever on the models before 🌬

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

HRRR is snowy tonight, definitely overdone a bit but I'm still really looking forward to seeing some snow in the air

It has worked pretty well at times for where I live, I honestly would not be shocked to wake up to 1 or 2 inches of snow tomorrow, not likely but possible.

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Start tracking the late January reload!

 

[Eugene-5SW]

[**]z run of the [*****] model will be telling!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

WORST OF THE WORST.

This is the best of the best forums I know of man, thank you for everything you do and keeping it running.  We all appreciate it a ton!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Gotta love this time of year when there are things to track--especially when the models are in disagreement.  

I'm in the EURO camp.  Hoping for a little snow before we hit the freezer.

[TacomaWx]

24 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Precip from next system is showing up now, I think the precip shield spreads further north than modeled and a decent part of central/sw Washington sees some snow overnight.

 

The only problem I could potentially see is precip rates not being enough to drag down the snow level down away from the heaviest bands. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is the best of the best forums I know of man, thank you for everything you do and keeping it running.  We all appreciate it a ton!

hear hear

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The only problem I could potentially see is precip rates not being enough to drag down the snow level down away from the heaviest bands. 

True, but we will be working a with a slightly colder airmass up this way.

Edited January 10 by GHweatherChris

[Ziess]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What are we all going to do with ourselves come Monday when this is all over??? 

Might wanna look at next weekend  

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Two insane GFS runs now.  Single digits are new!

Even the EPS has two days now in the mid 20s for Seattle.

 

[Requiem]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

WORST OF THE WORST.

Best worst of the worst forum ever I'd say 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Battle of the PNW 2024

[LowerGarfield]

Just now, Requiem said:

Best worst of the worst forum ever I'd say 

Best of the kids who are still posting you mean?

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Battle of the PNW 2024

Needs more Cougar.

[westcoastexpat]

7 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Are you originally from Eastern Canada? If so, how do you like your climate vs the old one?

Originally from here. Lived in Ontario for a decade and moved back a few years ago 

I love this climate way better. The summers are too humid but I do miss thunderstorms. In southern Ontario you don't get as much snow as you'd think. A lot of being stuck around 25F with a breeze, and nickel and diming 2" snowfalls here and there. It's just cold and dry. Skin is always cracking. And it's icy from the freeze and thaw cycles during the day. 8"+ storms are not a guarantee every winter.

[markjb]

13 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I can't find him, and the rug is missing, hoping he is just getting it steam cleaned.

just saw him imby here in university place...i'm screwed...that's the nail it the coffin for me.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Welp, south valley folks...

[thisisacreativename]

5 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Battle of the PNW 2024

Just pin this it's too good

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

Originally from here. Lived in Ontario for a decade and moved back a few years ago 

I love this climate way better. The summers are too humid but I do miss thunderstorms. In southern Ontario you don't get as much snow as you'd think. A lot of being stuck around 25F with a breeze, and nickel and diming 2" snowfalls here and there. It's just cold and dry. Skin is always cracking. And it's icy from the freeze and thaw cycles during the day. 8"+ storms are not a guarantee every winter.

Oddly enough that sounds like my climate (and winter last year) minus the humidity of Ontario. Windsor is surprisingly warm. Hot Summer Continental? Always good to have Canadian posters!

[ShawniganLake]

Good chance we see a sub -50F reading in central BC late this week.  

HRRRrrrrrr looks good for areas around Portland tonight. 

[BLI snowman]

25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

A question for our stats guys. Let’s say Portland scores big. 8-12” this week.   Have we ever had a winter where Portland got 12” and Bellingham basically gets skunked?  

Not too unheard of for Portland to do better than Bellingham.

1994-95 was a pretty big disparity (Nino!) with 12" in downtown Portland and 1" at BLI.

1959-60 was pretty consistently disproportionate. Downtown Portland had 20.3" with five separate snow events while BLI had 6.4", all from one event.

1926-27 had 20.8" in downtown Portland and only about 4-6" for most of Whatcom County.

And then of course 1919-20 had the massive storm down south in December which left Whatcom County high and dry. Only 2.5" in Bellingham that winter while Portland had 19.1".

 

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, markjb said:

just saw him imby here in university place...i'm screwed...that's the nail it the coffin for me.

Ya, he did mumble something about a bus ticket earlier today.

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, thisisacreativename said:

Just pin this it's too good

Only If it verifies!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Not too unheard of for Portland to do better than Bellingham.

1994-95 was a pretty big disparity (Nino!) with 12" in downtown Portland and 1" at BLI.

1959-60 was pretty consistently disproportionate. Downtown Portland had 20.3" with five separate snow events while BLI had 6.4", all from one event.

1926-27 had 20.8" in downtown Portland and only about 4-6" for most of Whatcom County.

And then of course 1919-20 had the massive storm down south in December which left Whatcom County high and dry. Only 2.5" in Bellingham that winter while Portland had 19.1".

 

Did the Puget sound end up in the middle of those numbers?

[Cold Snap]

Gonna be exciting to see what goes down in Portland tonight! Hoping for some over performance for you guys!

[LowerGarfield]

Can we agree that whichever model verifies, it will later leave the region and be given a stupid winter storm name by the TWC once it impacts the east where people live. I think naming winter storms is dumb.

[TT-SEA]

18Z control run keeps it south... 

 

[RentonHill]

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Can we agree that whichever model verifies, it will later leave the region and be given a stupid winter storm name by the TWC once it impacts the east where people live. I think naming winter storms is dumb.

Yep, 100%. I can't stand that either. 

[snow_wizard]

EPS digs slightly less as well.

[SnowWillarrive]

24 minutes ago, Doinko said:

HRRR is snowy tonight, definitely overdone a bit but I'm still really looking forward to seeing some snow in the air

@snow_wizard you gotta like that for tonight at least. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Did the Puget sound end up in the middle of those numbers?

In most cases where PDX outperforms BLI, you see a pretty distinct cutoff around Olympia.

January 1960 for example gave a decent dump to OLM but then had a sharp cutoff just to the north. Same with the December 1919 storm.

So the southern trackers for NW OR/SW WA usually extend out about 100 miles either north or south, but every setup is a little bit different.