January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Doing everything I can to contain my excitement but my weenie heart of hearts says it's a pretty money looking track for us. Giving it another 72-96 hours before I fully buy in. 

From where I'm sitting I think you are looking really good.

I still have hope for something to make it up here too.

[RCola]

Just to spread a little optimize, the script in '68-'69 was an arctic blast in December that, after a brief reprieve, lead to the epic arctic blast the following January. It's fun to imagine that this could be happening this year, too. Making no definite statements here. Just food for thought.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I'll play Tim. Temps are in the mid 40s there, Jimbo.

Way different on the ground than GEM at that time...but there is definitely promise to the pattern.

Fell asleep and did not even hear the 9:55 alarm!   Thanks for filling in. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's the same run. Low weakens 10mb by landfall.

I thought the 18z peaked at around 1000mb?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I'll play Tim. Temps are in the mid 40s there, Jimbo.

Way different on the ground than GEM at that time...but there is definitely promise to the pattern.

It gets colder right after that.  500mb is very important.  Big deal that the GEM, ICON, and ECMWF all have it.

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

I'm hoping that us being close to that boundary between the cold and this system can bring some local dynamics into play that may not be getting picked up on the global models. Doesn't always work out that way but it might be worth watching the higher resolution mesoscale models tomorrow to see if there are any hints of that. 

Yeah, hopefully the higher resolution can show some more details with the next few runs. I remember on 2/25/19 it looked like we would get nothing but we got a nice 2.5" snowfall with some banding I think.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro keeps PDX below freezing until Wed afternoon.

And the models are usually over aggressive scouring out the cold air here, especially in east Metro.

[westcoastexpat]

1 minute ago, RCola said:

Just to spread a little optimize, the script in '68-'69 was an arctic blast in December that, after a brief reprieve, lead to the epic arctic blast the following January. It's fun to imagine that this could be happening this year, too. Making no definite statements here. Just food for thought.

This month is definitely showing shades of 1969. In a strong Nino of all situations.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'll play Tim. Temps are in the mid 40s there, Jimbo.

Way different on the ground than GEM at that time...but there is definitely promise to the pattern.

Yea could work out if the stars align. But verbatim that’s warm rain for most

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'll play Tim. Temps are in the mid 40s there, Jimbo.

Way different on the ground than GEM at that time...but there is definitely promise to the pattern.

Thanks, I hate it. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Dave said:

I wonder how expensive snow making machines are?.

I built one out a pressure washer once. It worked

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

The sad reality of the East wind.  It killed many of my snowstorms when I lived down there.  

Does it here, too.

[MossMan]

I have a snowflake for next week! 

[westcoastexpat]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It gets colder right after that.  500mb is very important.  Big deal that the GEM, ICON, and ECMWF all have it.

Absolutely. Cannot be ignored. Quite the consensus already and once the signal is there these things usually snowball as they get closer. Good chance we score again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So what are we looking at? Some freezing rain and some sub-freezing highs? Sounds dynamic and fun!

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

From where I'm sitting I think you are looking really good.

I still have hope for something to make it up here too.

Rooting for you guys too. We've all earned Dewey's Dream MLK Day with bitter cold sunshine and snowcover. 

[bainbridgekid]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A 10mb drop is massive. Hopefully this low don't get crazy and head to forks. Maybe this run is outlier. 

 

 

 

It didn’t drop 10mb. You were comparing hour 72 to hour 78 both from the 00z and I think you thought you were comparing the 18z and 00z. 

 

[Doinko]

What are Euro high/low temps for Saturday/Sunday?

[snow_wizard]

Prince George down to -11 and a lot of places in BC down into the -30s with one almost -40.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Cliff said no snow and he posts the WRF. 

Good he will be wrong.  Next week we will see him on a street corner with a wig and panty hose on with a fresh coat of lipstick.

 

 

[van city]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

From where I'm sitting I think you are looking really good.

I still have hope for something to make it up here too.

Where are you sitting?

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I thought the 18z peaked at around 1000mb?

Yeah, 999mb right before it moved ashore. But that post had two maps, one with the low well offshore at 992mb, and then one with the low moving ashore at 1002mb - so it seemed you were commenting on that?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yea could work out if the stars align. But verbatim that’s warm rain for most

Not warm rain by any means.  I was just showing a pretty decent looking 500mb pattern.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

It didn’t drop 10mb. You were comparing hour 72 to hour 78 both from the 00z and I think you thought you were comparing the 18z and 00z. 

 

But I thought it peaked at 1000mb on the 18z?

[westcoastexpat]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

What are Euro high/low temps for Saturday/Sunday?

In Portland you could see 15 degree highs with the outflow raging. 

[Phishy Wx]

this is INSANE for an Ensemble MEAN (0Z GEFS)

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Good he will be wrong.  Next week we will see him on a street corner with a wig and panty hose on with a fresh coat of lipstick.

 

 

No snow is not going to happen with the Arctic front.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

No snow is not going to happen with the Arctic front.  

And he said he feel bad for the poor folks in Portland.  What does the assshole think everyone hates cold and snow? God I hate that p.o.s.

[Cloud]

AR next weekend 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I see a 20-burger in @TigerWoodsLibido's future.

[MossMan]

When do we climb back above freezing on the Euro? 

[snow_wizard]

The MM5 is just stupid for tomorrow night.  NO WAY it ends up that dry.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

AR next weekend 

Week two is very unsure right now.  Could be Arctic again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A 10mb drop is massive. Hopefully this low don't get crazy and head to forks. Maybe this run is outlier. 

 

 

 

I don’t think that would happen as it’s being suppressed but it could trigger a wind event south of the low and in gap areas. 

[TT-SEA]

If this is works out as shown tonight now that we have model agreement... neither the ECMWF or GFS wins.   They both ultimately met in the middle.   Score on for America and much maligned GFS.   A tie with Europe! 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

When do we climb back above freezing on the Euro? 

Monday for most.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And he said he feel bad for the poor folks in Portland.  What does the assshole think everyone hates cold and snow? God I hate that p.o.s.

Some of you really care about other people's opinion of snow and cold way too much.   

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When do we climb back above freezing on the Euro? 

Monday.

[westcoastexpat]

Some Euro members don't have many of us going above freezing again until late next week. Something to watch.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Week two is very unsure right now.  Could be Arctic again.

Really seems like we are destined to go back to a Nino pattern for awhile as Phil mentioned.   EPS has been very consistent.   Phil does think another chance comes in February.   And February is our specialty lately!