January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Looking forward to tomorrow’s snow pics.  

Fresh snow and sunshine is pretty spectacular.    Coming in just a few hours!

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

With how all over the place the modeling has been on this, nothing will surprise me. I could see a reality where we all get skunked. I also could see one where PDX metro gets 1/10/17 v2.

Agree, the range of possible outcomes is pretty wild given how close we are. Should keep things exciting, interesting and a bit nerve wracking.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

1/98 still stands as one of the best analogs. Low was a bit weaker and a little further north but the major players were pretty similar, with a surface air mass a couple clicks colder. 

So this was a Nino-like arctic blast after all.  

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

So this was a Nino-like arctic blast after all.  

It’s an Arctic blast during a nino, sooooooooooooo…………..

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

You could stay cold even if the El Niño pattern returns. There are always regional anomalies imbedded in larger scale patterns.

But westerly momentum will be added to the NPAC jet soon (as MJO crosses E-Hem and blocking retrogrades into Siberia).

I don’t know that means but I like cold (real cold not fake cold) so that makes me happy? I think? 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It’s an Arctic blast during a nino, sooooooooooooo…………..

And on the same day in January that year.  

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Funny, I had just taken a look at the 2/93 event. Not a terrible analog, although the entrenched air mass was a bit deeper and widespread. It was a unique setup with a low of the NorCal coast in the mid 980’s which elongated NE and was replaced by another low center that bombed into the mid 980’s over the central Cascades. Kinda goofy. I remember at the coast that day was dry and overcast, although following morning we picked up three inches at sea level with the upper trough moving onshore. That winter just made it easy for some reason.

Yeah, and no precip type issues with it in the valley as a result. It stayed all snow north of Roseburg I believe.

Shout out to Jim Little!

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

34 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Decent amount of precip from the Euro but we waste some on sleet. 

Comparing the QPF on several other models, it looks like between 0.50 to 1.0 in QPF is a good bet for PDX. Probably not too much risk of getting completely missed anymore but the precip cutoff continues to be very sharp on all models on the north side of this, going from 0.50 or more to nothing in a very short distance...

I think the snow totals are pretty much going to come down to how well we can maintain an entirely frozen column or close to it.

I want to say 5-10 inches of snow should be doable with this.  I'm kind of betting that the WAA is probably a bit overdone but we'll see.

 

Rooting for the GFS. It keeps PDX with negative 850mb temps throughout the event. Keeps us all snow. Then offshore flow remains in place until Saturday evening when southerlies finally break through.

 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

6 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

With how all over the place the modeling has been on this, nothing will surprise me. I could see a reality where we all get skunked. I also could see one where PDX metro gets 1/10/17 v2.

Entirely skunked seems extremely unlikely at this point. But talk about an all-time rug pull…

[Cold Snap]

Nice being able to meet @iFred  @SouthHillFrosty @RentonHill @Meatyorologist @andrewr! Hopefully we can do it again sometime but with more forum members! That was fun! Only thing I’d say that is missing from the shirts is #Worstoftheworst.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is really cold for this early in the outflow. 

[DareDuck]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

That little thing would get buried in our next blizzard. Lmk if they have a 48” one!

Ski resorts don’t even use a 48” but I’m sure the lowlands of Maryland need one. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Nice being able to meet @iFred  @SouthHillFrosty @RentonHill @Meatyorologist @andrewr! Hopefully we can do it again sometime but with more forum members! That was fun! Only thing I’d say that is missing from the shirts is #Worstoftheworst.

Sad to miss it. Gotta have a shirt with Nyberg’s face with #worstoftheworst under it

[TT-SEA]

One more interesting tidbit... a random snow dump shows up next week on the GEM while the GFS shows a big ridge.   And then the ECMWF shows the same snowstorm.   General rule of thumb when there are model differences... ECMWF often follows the GEM. 

[TT-SEA]

EPS and control run for Saturday.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Ski resorts don’t even use a 48” but I’m sure the lowlands of Maryland need one. 

Phil will be lucky to get 48" in the next decade in his rapidly warming Gulf Stream climate.

 

[SnowWillarrive]

Still snowing here. Temp in the 20s. Everything is nice and white. Not really accumulating much more. But love it! 

[BLI snowman]

Down to 10 at BLI.

Extremely impressive, they hit 7 in the December 2021 airmass but that was after 36 hours or so of advection. And with a buttload of snowcover.

Edited January 12 by BLI snowman

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... control run doesn't show a big snowstorm on Wednesday.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GraphCast trended more north. Initial moisture surge still into OR Friday evening then moisture lifts up during the day Saturday then Saturday evening the northern edge reaches Puget Sound. PDX looks like in a great spot for lots of moisture Sat afternoon/evening. I think this is the most likely solution.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the ECMWF is outlier for Wednesday among the EPS members.   It does look like a chilly system is pretty likely though.   Details to be determined after another week of model watching.  

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... control run doesn't show a big snowstorm on Wednesday.

Thanks for ruining my night, Tim! I was actually heading to bed with a little hope. 

[ShawniganLake]

Victoria Gonzales is down to 19F. Their low for the winter before today was 36F. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Thanks for ruining my night, Tim! I was actually heading to bed with a little hope. 

Both ECMWF and GEM snow a big snowstorm... that alone is pretty good hope.  

We don't need sleep for another week! 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... control run doesn't show a big snowstorm on Wednesday.

Ummm. We are only allowed to post the control run when it shows something good. 

[theRunner]

3.2'' at my house here in Issaquah/Preston, pleasantly surprised after were supposed to get nothing! Is there any chance for something from the Saturday system now? 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Down to 10.8 with a -6.8 DP.

 

Other folks have been posting their snow dept pictures, here is mine.

 

Probably gonna go sledding during my lunch break tomorrow.

[LowerGarfield]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here we go again!  

If this verifies for me, I'd have a shot at equaling my total from last year here. I had 13.9 in 2022-23.

[Deweydog]

Omak only has one degree left and then they’re out of degrees.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, theRunner said:

3.2'' at my house here in Issaquah/Preston, pleasantly surprised after were supposed to get nothing! Is there any chance for something from the Saturday system now? 

Impressive.   What elevation?   You ended up with more than we did out here. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Radar is starting to blow up again lowkey...... 26.2 but still melting on contact lol

Edited January 12 by SouthHillFrosty

[SouthHillFrosty]

Future radar looks good also but I take with a grain of salt

[Snownerd3000]

13 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z GraphCast trended more north. Initial moisture surge still into OR Friday evening then moisture lifts up during the day Saturday then Saturday evening the northern edge reaches Puget Sound. PDX looks like in a great spot for lots of moisture Sat afternoon/evening. I think this is the most likely solution.

Is it me or does this look like it's reaching a little further north 

[SnowySeeker50]

 

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Radar is starting to blow up again lowkey......

Dry air is winning out though. Was under the west band for a while and its mostly been light snow.

[theRunner]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Impressive.   What elevation?   You ended up with more than we did out here. 

My garage is roughly at ~1100 feet, there was intense graupel followed by intermittent snow. I'll post a picture from my yard tomorrow. 

[Requiem]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... control run doesn't show a big snowstorm on Wednesday.

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.

I'm going to step back for the day  night too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, SnowySeeker50 said:

 

Dry air is winning out though. Was under the west band for a while and its mostly been light snow.

Oh yea ik lol. It stopped for a couple hours even tho it showed be a under a band. It just started to pick back up tho!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Almost 69 members approaching midnight.

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Almost 69 members approaching midnight.

You all stocked up on groceries?

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh yea ik lol. It stopped for a couple hours even tho it showed be a under a band. It just started to pick back up tho!

Does appear to be getting stronger again.