January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Snowdome]

Now first flakes here in OC.  Perfect timing playing fetch with the puppy at Singer Creek. Stoked!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Joe Namath??  

Hey i know that one

[Perturbed Member]

Taking a look at precip for tomorrow, between 0.50 to 1.0 in QPF continues to look like a good bet. Some of the models, including the Euro keep an area of deformation somewhere north of PDX that leads to greater precip amounts up there. I think it is pretty challenging to predict exactly where those bands set up but there are hints of it on several models. 

I was pretty bullish yesterday and said 5-10 inches for PDX metro should be doable. I still think that could work out ok especially in Clark, Washington and Columbia county. I'm a little nervous about the south metro but I am assuming the WAA is being a bit oversold on some of the models and I think we will probably remain mostly or all snow in most parts of the metro even with a little WAA. The warm layer being advertised doesn't really look that warm or that deep. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Down to 18 so far today

[Mid Valley Duck]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies will be 1-11 next year.  Brutal loss of DeBoer.  

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I do have a cooler sports story but you guys would just laugh at me but it is the truth.

Ten years ago i was standing in line for a ride in Disneyland and these 2 guys were acting funny behind me. After about 5 minutes they finally said umm excuse me sr, Are you Peyton manning? It was funny because i said No, who the f is that! My wife laughed the entire trip, she did say i looked like him hahaha. Honest to god true story.

Edited January 12 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[Timmy]

[GobBluth]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Is there consensus now that this won't start in metro area until late morning?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

37 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

There is the cold E wind at Troutdale. Temp and dew point dropping there now. Really cool to see the arctic air hit us from two different directions at almost exactly the same time. 

Troutdale dropped 7 degrees in the last hour. About to hit freezing.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Sunny and 14.4˚F at noon. That doesn’t happen very often here!

[Doinko]

Winter Storm Warning is up, the NWS says 2-4" for the Portland metro. Blizzard warning for the Columbia River Gorge

[Tanis Leach]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
1201 PM PST Fri Jan 12 2024

ORZ006-131400-
/O.UPG.KPQR.WS.A.0003.240113T1200Z-240114T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KPQR.WS.W.0003.240113T1500Z-240114T0600Z/
Greater Portland Metro Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, and Troutdale
1201 PM PST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph
  near the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge. Wind chills as low
  as 10 below zero.

* WHERE...Greater Portland Metro Area.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  will significantly reduce visibility, especially in the eastern
  Portland metro. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The
  cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could result in
  hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions expected across the
  east Portland metro during peak snowfall rates Saturday
  afternoon and evening. Sleet may also mix with snow at times
  which would lead to lower snowfall amounts.

[the_convergence_zone]

Dew point is down to 1F at Sea-Tac. 

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Actually they have blown right by it.

The 4 degrees there is now their coldest temperature since they hit 4 in November 1985.

And they're doing this just with CAA and with no snowcover.

Legit af.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Winter Storm Warning is up, the NWS says 2-4" for the Portland metro. Blizzard warning for the Columbia River Gorge

Sounds a bit on the low side. I would go with more like 5–7" based on model guidance.

[Olive1010]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Winter Storm Warning is up, the NWS says 2-4" for the Portland metro. Blizzard warning for the Columbia River Gorge

That seems a little low

[GHweatherChris]

9 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Fixed it

 

Edited January 12 by GHweatherChris

[Olive1010]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sounds a bit on the low side. I would go with more like 5–7" based on model guidance.

lol we said that the same time

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Legit af.

That November 85 storm was a beast. Do you have a map that shows how all the snow happened for puget sound?

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Dew point is down to 1F at Sea-Tac. 

Ugh.  We can't NOT have some sort of overrunning event with these temps.  Super frustrating seeing it dry out there.

[Olive1010]

Which one would be fairly more accurate? The cobb avg?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Noon at work in Port Orchard and it is 18 degrees. Been since 1990 for that to happen again.

[Olive1010]

Looks like some dustings from these light snow showers before the main event

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That November 85 storm was a beast. Do you have a map that shows how all the snow happened for puget sound?

I don't, on my phone.

As far as temps...if gradients can relax a bit tonight or tomorrow morning, I think a lot more places will see their coldest temps in decades.

[DeepFriedEgg]

16 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Taking a look at precip for tomorrow, between 0.50 to 1.0 in QPF continues to look like a good bet. Some of the models, including the Euro keep an area of deformation somewhere north of PDX that leads to greater precip amounts up there. I think it is pretty challenging to predict exactly where those bands set up but there are hints of it on several models. 

I was pretty bullish yesterday and said 5-10 inches for PDX metro should be doable. I still think that could work out ok especially in Clark, Washington and Columbia county. I'm a little nervous about the south metro but I am assuming the WAA is being a bit oversold on some of the models and I think we will probably remain mostly or all snow in most parts of the metro even with a little WAA. The warm layer being advertised doesn't really look that warm or that deep. 

Becoming pretty clear that SW Wa is going to score big, especially around Longview.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lol 1-3 for Kelso??? more like 4-8.

[WhoNeedsAC]

7 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

That seems a little low

NWS doesn't seen to be all in on the more northerly low track.

[TacomaWx]

Stepped outside a minute ago and felt like I walked into the Costco freezer. 

[Olive1010]

1 minute ago, WhoNeedsAC said:

NWS doesn't seen to be all in on the more northerly low track.

oh, weird

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, WhoNeedsAC said:

NWS doesn't seen to be all in on the more northerly low track.

Even as an amateur I can tell you they are wrong (2017, 2014, etc). Low position is resolved but precip shield will spread more north. Question is if it will be mostly virga.

[Dave]

Ice storm warning for the south Valley. NWS calling for .5" of ice accumulation. That wouldn't be terrible. An inch would.

 

[Tanis Leach]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
1201 PM PST Fri Jan 12 2024

ORZ008-131400-
/O.UPG.KPQR.WS.A.0003.240113T0000Z-240114T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPQR.IS.W.0001.240113T0600Z-240114T0600Z/
South Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany,
and Lebanon
1201 PM PST Fri Jan 12 2024

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM
PST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of around one half of an
  inch.

* WHERE...South Willamette Valley.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the evening commute.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Lol 1-3 for Kelso??? more like 4-8.

Yeah I think Kelso just solidified themselves as the big winner.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is gonna be some weird fuckin' dynamics in the SE valley.

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

This will be a big mistake on his and UWs part.

Pete Carroll will be the new head coach for the Huskies!

[Mid Valley Duck]

NAM wants a lot of sleet, I dont buy it. This would be a good snowstorm imo.

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

Ice storm warning for the south Valley. NWS calling for .5" of ice accumulation. That wouldn't be terrible. An inch would.

 

I'm thinking totals for ice will over perform for us southern dwellers and snow should over perform for northern folks. 

[Olive1010]

Meteogram cobbs method avg model is saying roughly 9 inches for Hillsboro, could be overdoing it

[Dave]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is gonna be some weird f*****' dynamics in the SE valley.

Despite what the models say, I bet we at least see a few flakes in the next 36 hours at some point.

[WhoNeedsAC]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah I think Kelso just solidified themselves as the big winner.

We (Lower Columbia/I-5 Corridor) typically over preform during classic Portland snowstorms. But occasionally we get skunked when the low comes in too far south. Hoping for the former, although 1-3 in. and a 20 degree high would still be pretty impressive.