January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

Wednesday system per ECMWF.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost need a separate thread for this Portland event.

For WA people... ECMWF starts off right away as freezing rain on Tuesday evening.   But fortunately it's short-lived and warms up just after midnight pet this run.

Yep.mid week Is going to be more winter weather one way or another. 

[Christensen87]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wednesday system per ECMWF.

 

Ugh. 

[SunAndSnow]

9 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Currently a heavy snow shower coming my way 🌨

This shows me as in the blue but we’ve switched to straight sleet for the last 20 minutes or so. Maybe we’ll transition back?

[iFred]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost need a separate thread for this Portland event.

For WA people... ECMWF starts off right away as freezing rain on Tuesday evening.   But fortunately it's short-lived and warms up just after midnight pet this run.

Warms up and on to spring.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wednesday system per ECMWF.

 

Crap ending 

[DDDRWx]

16 degrees & blowing snow in Vancouver WA…truly amazing!  SR14 eastbound

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wednesday system per ECMWF.

 

Tim is the only one who will post a snow map with no snow.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, DDDRWx said:

16 degrees & blowing snow in Vancouver WA…truly amazing!  SR14 eastbound

Music muted? Why???

[RaleighHillsRunner]

15 minutes ago, thickhog said:

This might be another case where the east and north sides of the metro win out. have had light sleet/snow mix here almost all morning. 

Absolutely dumping blizzard conditions here

[ajreich]

 

 

Snow is definitely picking up. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

2 minutes ago, SunAndSnow said:

This shows me as in the blue but we’ve switched to straight sleet for the last 20 minutes or so. Maybe we’ll transition back?

Not sure, probably yes when the low starts coming closer and goes south of Portland. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Tim is the only one who will post a snow map with no snow.

Its very close for SW BC and Vancouver Island and trended a little south of 00Z run. 

 

[GobBluth]

Noisy stuff falling outside to be just snow in Tanasbourne area. Think it's at least half sleet still. Bizarre with all the all snow reports around me 

[SpaceRace22]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost need a separate thread for this Portland event.

For WA people... ECMWF starts off right away as freezing rain on Tuesday evening.   But fortunately it's short-lived and warms up just after midnight pet this run.

If freezing rain has to happen, at least that's one of the more ideal ways for it to play out. I can live with a quick coating of ice that switches to regular rain before morning. Gives at least a few hours that night to enjoy the novelty of everything being coated with ice, while hopefully not ruining too many lives the next day.

[iFred]

Getting breezy in Everett. Thankfully as Tim pointed out, we warm up in just a couple days, the Euro (the only model to be trusted) shows seasonal El Nino before spring, and the heat death of the universe will be the only time we can be assured of anything decent if you're one of those degenerate cold lovers. Thanks Tim!

[Olive1010]

LMAO guys I haven't seen sleet since this event started earlier this morning, might be in a sweet spot.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its very close for SW BC and Vancouver Island and trended a little south of 00Z run. 

 

It’s better. Colder. Low moved south.

[Sandy rocks]

The temperature has dropped to 15 here in Sandy. It has been snowing hard since I got up. Blowing hard also.

[Olive1010]

1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

Noisy stuff falling outside to be just snow in Tanasbourne area. Think it's at least half sleet still. Bizarre with all the all snow reports around me 

That's close to me, I have just snow now

[MWG]

You know nothing is happening at your neck of the woods when NWS in Medford in the morning discussion only talked about Douglas County  Also, 37F and rain here 

[Gummy]

53 minutes ago, RCola said:

At least you won't be livid alone.

Things change for sure, but there are two truths we do know.

1. If the GFS is by itself at this range and it shows something interesting for Seattle, usually it doesn't pan out that way. Take, for example, the system today as modeled 5 days ago by the GFS.

2. There are always last minute north trends, big or small. 

I don't want to speculate too much yet because the models are going to flip flop until Tuesday, but my gut says the most likely outcome is a freezing rain storm a la 2022. 

 

Absolutely the antithesis of glee-ridden at the thought but probably not incorrect.

Yea, I have had enough of the GFS and it's gaggle of low resolution members.  Stick the the Euro/EPS.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Getting breezy in Everett. Thankfully as Tim pointed out, we warm up in just a couple days, the Euro (the only model to be trusted) shows seasonal El Nino before spring, and the heat death of the universe will be the only time we can be assured of anything decent if you're one of those degenerate cold lovers. Thanks Tim!

You're welcome Fred! 

Only about 30 posts from me about the complicated evolution mid-week and there is literally no way to tell what will happen.    But yeah... angry sarcasm can be therapeutic.    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A few snow flurries here!

[TT-SEA]

Models should have lots of fun with this complicated hand off... might not know much until the event starts.

[Doinko]

Conditions are insane here. Snow is icy but it's definitely snow. Looks like we have a bit over an inch so far? Many drifts a couple inches in places.

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX record low today is 11, they could come close. 

Hard for me to picture that much evaporational prowess to come, but who knows. I will be pretty satisfied if they manage to get below 15.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Interestingly the 11 is from 2017!

[Ken in Wood Village]

Look at the enhancement going on. These showers are getting intense. Looks like the mix is turning back to snow 🌨

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A few snow flurries here!

Really? That’s impressive considering how far north you are. You are giving me hope. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A few snow flurries here!

Interesting, must be from easterly flow out there. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Look at the enhancement going on. These showers are getting intense. Looks like the mix is turning back to snow 🌨

Wow, that heavy band is heading straight for here. I thoought precip would lighten up but it's just getting heavier

[Perturbed Member]

Some sleet mixing in here for sure now. It was dead silent all morning but now you can hear some sleet and ice crusted snow hitting the windows. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hard for me to picture that much evaporational prowess to come, but who knows. I will be pretty satisfied if they manage to get below 15.

True. Too bad they are one of the warmest places in the metro. Plenty of places in east and southeast PDX in the 10-12 range right now. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Some sleet mixing in here for sure now. It was dead silent all morning but now you can hear some sleet and ice crusted snow hitting the windows. 

Yeah, same here but it still seems to be mostly snow.

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

If freezing rain has to happen, at least that's one of the more ideal ways for it to play out. I can live with a quick coating of ice that switches to regular rain before morning. Gives at least a few hours that night to enjoy the novelty of everything being coated with ice, while hopefully not ruining too many lives the next day.

I actually kind of like the old silver thaw, myself. We'll have a ton of snow on the ground and an icy mantle looks kind of cool. And preserves the snow a little better for the days that follow.

Edited January 13 by BLI snowman

[TacomaWx]

Tempting to want to head down there and experience the storm. As much as y’all are rooting against sleet I feel like sleet/snowstorm would be awesome to experience. Never really seen anything like that. 

[Olive1010]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Tempting to want to head down there and experience the storm. As much as y’all are rooting against sleet I feel like sleet/snowstorm would be awesome to experience. Never really seen anything like that. 

Here? :0

[TT-SEA]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

I actually kind of like the old silver thaw, myself. We'll have a ton of snow on the ground and an icy mantle looks kind of cool. And preserves the snow a little better for the days that follow.

A little coating of freezing rain is amazing at protecting snow cover.   

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A few snow flurries here!

Kitsap right? I don’t see anything on radar