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2 minutes ago, Dave said:

I took a walk around the neighborhood to survey the risky trees, branches over powerlines, etc. Did not look good. I think there is zero chance I'll have power if we get over an inch of ZR. It looks totally sketchy. 

Haha I’m just assuming we will. Have the batteries and generator ready to go, but could be scary for a lot of folks. I’m not sure most people understand what’s coming with the wind chills. 

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Location 850’ NW Hills in Portland

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5 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

I don’t know much about PDX climo during these setups, but I’m surprised the models are saying Ptype is an issue given the depth of the arctic airmass and high ratios expected. Is this typical for these types of setups?

Not an expert but models never seem to deal with these setups perfectly. I have to believe this is all snow for most - maybe south metro deals with some sleet. Definitely a range of microclimates and wide spread of totals for most events. But we’ve had all snow with less impressive cold in the past. 

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Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’

”All models are wrong, some are useful.”

-G. Box

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4 minutes ago, ajreich said:

Haha I’m just assuming we will. Have the batteries and generator ready to go, but could be scary for a lot of folks. I’m not sure most people understand what’s coming with the wind chills. 

I've been scheming for a good way to save everything in the fridge. I think that if I put it in a cooler and then put the cooler outside, that might work (to keep it above freezing). It probably won't be cold enough to save the stuff in the freezer though. Looks like I'll be firing up the grill in the cold.

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6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Here’s the northern extent of moisture.

IMG_2826.thumb.jpeg.4f78688104c6b902cb3f5a001f1b8a06.jpeg

So I’ve been following folks believe ratios will be higher than 10:1 in this setup. Basic explanation as to why?

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Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’

”All models are wrong, some are useful.”

-G. Box

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The 00z HRRR says it stays all snow with NO changeover to sleet for basically everyone north of Tigard/Lake Oswego. From Wilsonville to Tigard/LO, the changeover is very brief and more than made up for by heavier precip.

The HRRR is fairly useless this far out, but I've got a good feeling about tomorrow still.

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Currently 11.8 degrees. Had a daylight high of 18, a midnight high of 20. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The 00z HRRR says it stays all snow with NO changeover to sleet for basically everyone north of Tigard/Lake Oswego. From Wilsonville to Tigard/LO, the changeover is very brief and more than made up for by heavier precip.

The HRRR is fairly useless this far out, but I've got a good feeling about tomorrow still.

It also flips precip back to heavy snow at Salem tomorrow evening. It’s also important to note this model is typically very aggressive with WAA.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Down to 23 at Troutdale. I think PDX can do it!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We were 32° at 5:00 and now its 12 degrees, that's a quick temp change! 

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Coldest temp this winter: -6 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated March 4th) 124" 

Snow depth at my home (updated 2pm March 4th): 12"

Annual snowfall at home (updated 2PM March 4th): 72"

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25 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The 00z HRRR says it stays all snow with NO changeover to sleet for basically everyone north of Tigard/Lake Oswego. From Wilsonville to Tigard/LO, the changeover is very brief and more than made up for by heavier precip.

The HRRR is fairly useless this far out, but I've got a good feeling about tomorrow still.

HRRR is an extremely useless model, in setups like these it always shows the temps WAY too warm. Only thing it's good at is forecasting my snow totals, although it still rarely gives me enough snow.  Every other model often gives me half of what I end up getting.

Coldest temp this winter: -6 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated March 4th) 124" 

Snow depth at my home (updated 2pm March 4th): 12"

Annual snowfall at home (updated 2PM March 4th): 72"

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Definitely was a beautiful day with wall to wall sunshine, a little snow on the ground, and the mountains plastered in white. But COLD. Did a few errands and it was always a shock to step outside my Vancouver home and be greeted by Rockies temperatures.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Do you think all the snow that will make it up this way tomorrow will actually stick?

I think it’ll definitely get as far north as you and OLM. Fighting some dry air for sure this far north…but overall banking on models tendency to be too surpressed still. 

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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11.5. Most likely single digits within the next few hours…3 winter seasons in a row of single digits at my house?? incredible! Before that last time I had single digits was 2008, and before that it was probably 1989? 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You know this airmass is serious when places with east wind are colder than places without it.

My local fire department warned the town that 40-60mph winds are supposed to be churning through sky valley tonight. Might drop to 4...long shot for negatives.

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Just now, MossMan said:

11.5. Most likely single digits within the next few hours…3 winter seasons in a row of single digits at my house?? incredible! Before that last time was 2008, and before that it was probably 1989? 

I've been thinking about this the last few days.  We are getting into very rarified company with some of these stats.  A couple from MBY.

This will be the 4th consecutive winter to have 2 or more freezing max temps.

Third consecutive to have a max below 25

 

Both have not happened in a very long time.

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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