January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Weiner Warrior]

Seattle will have 5 inches by wednesday morning and everett north looking at 8+. Just got off a conference call, and it was confirmed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[Hawksfan2008]

Freezing rain increased 

[Phishy Wx]

what's the NBM saying?

[MossMan]

Will laugh so hard if the GFS and Canadian end up being correct. Would catch a lot of people off guard 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Another small step south for sure. This is going to be close for Seattle area. 

[crf450ish]

15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 to
12 inches in the valleys and 12 to 18 inches in the mountains.

* WHERE...Airway Heights, Priest River, Moscow, Deer Park, Plummer,
Chewelah, Tiger, Worley, Hayden, Springdale-Hunters Road,
Fruitland, Davenport, Coeur d'Alene, Eastport, Metaline, Spokane
Valley, Newport, Colville, Fairfield, Post Falls, Downtown
Spokane, Bonners Ferry, Athol, Kettle Falls, Flowery Trail Road,
Schweitzer Mountain Road, Genesee, Northport, Cheney, Orin-Rice
Road, Potlatch, Clark Fork, Metaline Falls, Ione, Sandpoint, and
Rockford.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

This is actually VERY serious, particularly for Fruitland. I used to live there and the topography almost always produces upslope snow events. Happened every time there was a forecast for heavy snow. This forecast is reminiscent of one that I remember in December of 2016. Went to bed with roughly 4" of snow on the ground that had accumulated from several nights prior, woke up with 2 feet of new snow. It was incredible and intimidating at the same time. HWY 25 did not get plowed for a whole day. Yes, an entire day went by with 2 feet of actual snowfall on a state highway.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Will laugh so hard if the GFS and Canadian end up being correct. Would catch a lot of people off guard 

The ECMWF is wrong sometimes.  Fact.

[Dave]

Looks like we'll end up with a 29/21 spread today. Sucks balls for those without power. It is tough to scour out low level cold in the WV. I'm sure the next storm tomorrow won't totally suck at all.

[HuskyMaestro]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Freezing rain increased 

May skip class that day Trying to drive up those Tacoma hills is going to be an absolute nightmare

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Another small step south for sure. This is going to be close for Seattle area. 

Yep for sure! And still a few model runs to go for a little more southward jiggle! 

[North_County]

After some early-weekend waffling, today's runs have pretty consistently hammered my area with snow. Fully prepared to end up disappointed, but if it does happen, really looking forward to snow that doesn't blow away.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

May skip class that day Trying to drive up those Tacoma hills is going to be an absolute nightmare

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Another small step south for sure. This is going to be close for Seattle area. 

I could be wrong... but that would be a huge jump for the ECMWF this close to the event.  

[HuskyMaestro]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

If it verifies, it'd be a nice day to carefully walk around the park and take some pictures! 

[Blizzard777]

7 hours ago, Blizzard777 said:

Impressed by this cold airmass and it stands alone in its own way for me. Passive arctic front here but the bite of cold unreal from the event! 

11th 43/27 ………dp 32/12 (note: 6:15pm officials 32*)

12th  27/15.6 … dp 14/-4

13th. 22/12.7…..dp 0/-8

14th. 31/13………dp 9/0 

15th 38/17……….dp 8/1  (temp rose above 32 at 12:30pm)

90.5 hours below 32* for event 

Just updated to reflect todays data 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I could be wrong... but that would be a huge jump for the ECMWF this close to the event.  

Just need a little more southward jiggle!!! 

For me anyway. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Just need a little more southward jiggle!!! 

For me anyway. 

Yes... your area has a much better chance than the Seattle area.   But who knows since this a really tough situation for the models to handle and tiny differences in temps can make a huge difference in what happens.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I could be wrong... but that would be a huge jump for the ECMWF this close to the event.  

I agree. It's a complicated deal for sure with that trough coming down the bc coast, if that trough wins the race everything will be shunted south even more. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA got up to 38 today... quite a bit warmer than the ECMWF showed.    Probably doesn't mean anything for tomorrow night or Wednesday though.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yes... your area has a much better chance than the Seattle area.   But who knows since this a really tough situation for the models to handle and tiny differences in temps can make a huge difference in what happens.

If the winds stay offshore here I'm thinking it will mostly be snow.  There is a station on the east side of Olympics that I watch at 2400ft elevation or around 925mb and if that thing reads 32 or lower we get snow here probably 90% of the time. It is a good indicator because it's right of the edge of the mountains sticking outside of the range.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA got up to 38 today... quite a bit warmer than the ECMWF showed.    Probably doesn't mean anything for tomorrow night or Wednesday though.  

The dewpoint is everything with this and I kinda forgot about that till today.

[Mercurial]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

well here we go

 

NWS Missoula says we have literally a 100% chance of getting 4 or more inches from this system.  Talk about going out of their way to jinx us, jfc.  

[Mercurial]

incredible forecast quality

[SnowySeeker50]

High of 35 today, down to 29f currently. Trace of snow on grass from Thursday lives to see another day.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The dewpoint is everything with this and I kinda forgot about that till today.

For Seattle, the upper level temps are a pretty big issue.  Dew point is important but if 850s are above freezing it’s not going to snow much

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

29F for my high at the house today under mostly full sunshine. Let’s see how cold it gets tonight and I’m still getting decent north wind. Feels like ice storm doom is coming but we will see how this plays out. 

[mtep]

Went to check out (frozen) Nooksack Falls earlier. Soooo sick. 

[Tyler Mode]

Short time lapse from Saturday

[RentonHill]

All timer sunset from halfway between Moses and George. Phone pic is an insult to real life sorry

[Doinko]

PDX already down to 26 after a high of 30

[smerfylicious]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... your area has a much better chance than the Seattle area.   But who knows since this a really tough situation for the models to handle and tiny differences in temps can make a huge difference in what happens.

If my area had about 300 more feet in elevation I'd be cashing in tomorrow.

[snow_wizard]

ZR looks inevitable for outflow areas at the very least now.  Nice cold tongue for King County tomorrow evening.

No doubt the 18z ECMWF has a bit colder look to it in general as the pattern evolves.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

All timer sunset from halfway between Moses and George. Phone pic is an insult to real life sorry

Wow!

[Slushy Inch]

Nice group of lows closer to the Colombia river now 

[Slushy Inch]

Chance of one inch or more went up. 10-20 percent chance now 20-30.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

All timer sunset from halfway between Moses and George. Phone pic is an insult to real life sorry

It was spectacular on this side of the mountains too.  

[MossMan]

Down to 27.4 after a high of 33.1 today. 

It’s coming. 

[RayRay]

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Freezing rain increased 

That amount of ZR isn't too problematic as far as potential damage is concerned.