Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said: Awesome looking sky to the southwest. love the contrast of dark clouds with snow on ground It's Coming! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Druncle 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Front Ranger said: Last five: 2016, 2010, 2007, 2005, 1998. Seem like a pretty mixed bag overall, though I can see why you haven't enjoyed most of them. Second or third year Ninas tend to be the worst (hottest) here. If we had descending easterly QBO like in 2007 or 1998 it would be a more tolerable outcome. But transitioning to La Niña with descending +QBO is consistently Venus-like. 2016, 2010, 1995, 1988, etc. All of the most brutal analogs are in that list. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Phil said: If we had descending easterly QBO like in 2007 or 1998 it would be a more tolerable outcome. But transitioning to La Niña with descending +QBO is consistently Venus-like. 2016, 2010, 1995, 1988, etc. All of the most brutal analogs are in that list. The good news is all of those following winters turned out well in the PNW! 3 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: PDX holding at 26 on the hour. 26 here as well. Temperatures should peak for the day in the next hour or so. Coldest 4 day stretch for PDX since Dec 1998, it would appear. 5 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Front Ranger said: Coldest 4 day stretch for PDX since Dec 1998, it would appear. Guess we can throw out the 1957-58 and 1991-92 analogs! 1 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 I can now confirm ZR storm has started. Coming down at a pretty good clip. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 I’m struggling to see the warm up happening that forecasters are so confident in. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Is that word from outerspace? 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Druncle Yes please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Lol we just had a historic blast Phillip. You said it wasn’t coming and it came so I don’t believe you. LR forecasting is hard! I screw up sometimes. And you guys always remind me about it when I do. 4 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Spatiotemporal essentially means with respect to space and time. Temporal is with respect to time only. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 GFS still instant that the basin gets a little reinvigoration and ice returns for Thursday night… 3 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 19 minutes ago, Phil said: I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening). Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet. Early February it is. 5 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Druncle I'll take a slice of Kuchera please and thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Looks like this ice storm might be slightly pulling apart as it moves inland. Windy_ Satellite.mp4 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Deweydog said: GFS still instant that the basin gets a little reinvigoration and ice returns for Thursday night… If it ever actually departs. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Already looks like that pattern is establishing by day 7. Yep, multi week thaw coming for all of us. But Tahoe should do well. Similar to the pattern last January in many ways. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Coming down much heavier now. 27 degrees. There are puddles of water on top of the ice that hasn't frozen yet. Fukkkkk. 1 1 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Phil said: LR forecasting is hard! I screw up sometimes. And you guys always remind me about it when I do. One of the reasons I pretty much stopped making seasonal forecasts after my success of 2019-2021 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Deweydog said: GFS still instant that the basin gets a little reinvigoration and ice returns for Thursday night… Yeah, now that's a head scratcher in terms of analogs. ZR to rain to ZR. It's not unheard of to see a little resurgence through the gorge after a low evacuates (1/19/2012) but I can't think of any examples where surface advection was strong enough to get PDX back below 32 and into ZR without more appreciable upper level reinforcement. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: If it ever actually departs. Not likely near the gorge, but the low level air mass deepens somewhat after shallowing/retreating for about 36 hours. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: It almost made Tim leave! And Summer 2019 was still by many respects a warmer than normal Summer. Especially after July. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, BLI snowman said: Yeah, now that's a head scratcher in terms of analogs. ZR to rain to ZR. It's not unheard of to see a little resurgence through the gorge after a low evacuates (1/19/2012) but I can't think of any examples where surface advection was strong enough to get PDX back below 32 and into ZR without more appreciable upper level reinforcement. Pretty weird. Seems that in the GFS’s opinion just enough of a reinforcement from the clipper gets sucked into the gorge. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 2010 was one of the last truly nice summers we had around here. Strong Nino to Nina transition. No doubt you guys are long overdue for a troughy summer. Has to happen eventually. And we’re equally overdue for a ridgy, boring summer after years of epic severe seasons. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, Lars43 said: Sitting at 24, rain has started. It’s an absolute glacier. Looks like a skating rink! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: Looks like a skating rink! is that the road?? 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icyasf Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, Dave said: Coming down much heavier now. 27 degrees. There are puddles of water on top of the ice that haven't frozen yet. Fukkkkk. There is also puddles in Corvallis. I cannot tell if this means it’s starting to melt or if this is a bad thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 If the Indian Ocean starts torching like crazy in April/May it’ll tell us a lot about where 2024 is heading. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 23 minutes ago, Lars43 said: Sitting at 24, rain has started. It’s an absolute glacier. Looks just like what we had last December here. 12 hours of sleet and then freezing rain. Absolutely impenetrable surface. Never seen anything like it. And literally could not stand on it without falling down. 6 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, icyasf said: There is also puddles in Corvallis. I cannot tell if this means it’s starting to melt or if this is a bad thing. It's not ideal. Still way too cool for melting. It will freeze solid eventually. It's just that the precip rate is too high to instantly freeze. Buckle up. This might get shitttty. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Guess we can throw out the 1957-58 and 1991-92 analogs! Regional duds are a product of a bygone climate era. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: is that the road?? I think so. The ice on top of the snow/sleet is making things look shiny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Looks just like what we had last December here. 12 hours of sleet and then freezing rain. Absolutely impenetrable surface. Never seen anything like it. And literally could not stand on it without falling down. I had that overnight once on top of sleet and snow. woke and my car had slid out of the driveway and was in the cul-de-sac the next morning. at first we thought it was stolen 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 29 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Druncle FYI that snow South of Everett falls during the day on Thursday. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Looks just like what we had last December here. 12 hours of sleet and then freezing rain. Absolutely impenetrable surface. Never seen anything like it. And literally could not stand on it without falling down. As much as I hate ice, it sure can be pretty. 8 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andstorm Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, rsktkr said: Looks like this ice storm might be slightly pulling apart as it moves inland. Windy_ Satellite.mp4 Likely effect of the super dry air mass 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Such pretty colors 🌨 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Absolutely pouring freezing rain. We have a few degrees to go yet. Gonna be really bad. 1 1 1 2 2 1 4 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 ice sucks asssss unless its like a frozen lake or waterfall or you're using it to make a cocktail 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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