Jump to content

January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous .

Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified.  It is in 24hrs!!!

The great windstorm bust of October 2016 really did a number on them. Been very gun shy ever since. 

  • Like 5

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous .

Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified.  It is in 24hrs!!!

Maybe they think it won’t be impactful for some reason because of warmer temperatures? They mention it in the discussion but with low confidence in it lasting long. I’d always bet on an ice storm lasting longer than forecast. 

  • Like 1

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Me when I see Tim post a snow map with no snow. When I see a snow map with no snow I close that sh*t out quick!

3963CA63-B33C-4E9B-89B7-E8C0871BB2CE.png

Just because there is no snow on a particular map for your backyard doesn't mean the map doesn't show lots of snow for other people on here.    

  • Like 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Maybe they think it won’t be impactful for some reason because of warmer temperatures? They mention it in the discussion but with low confidence in it lasting long. I’d always bet on an ice storm lasting longer than forecast. 

I think there will be lots of school delays and commuting issues on Wednesday. 

  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just because there is no snow on a particular map for your backyard doesn't mean the map doesn't show lots of snow for other people on here.    

I guess some you posted had snow for Vancouver. I don’t care either way it’s just not fun to look at.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Salem down to 21 with a dp of 10. Will be interesting to see where they end up before clouds start moving in. 

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I guess some you posted had snow for Vancouver. 

All of them.  And Bellingham.    

And also posted RGEM and GEM which were snowy much farther south.   I don't ignore any model in these complicated scenarios. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

bruh

dude

  • Snow 1
  • Shivering 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think there will be lots of school delays and commuting issues on Wednesday. 

I told my boss about it a couple times recently but we’re all going into work tomorrow. Hoping I can be headed home before it starts. Depending on how the roads are Wednesday morning I don’t want to drive like I did during the last ice event. 

  • Like 1

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I told my boss about it a couple times recently but we’re all going into work tomorrow. Hoping I can be headed home before it starts. Depending on how the roads are Wednesday morning I don’t want to drive like I did during the last ice event. 

You have until 7 or 8 p.m. tomorrow before precip starts.  

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Maybe they think it won’t be impactful for some reason because of warmer temperatures? They mention it in the discussion but with low confidence in it lasting long. I’d always bet on an ice storm lasting longer than forecast. 

I don't remember the wind bust, what happened

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Duuude…We won’t have a place to eat, what are we going to do…brah…

busted pipes are happening all over, several schools are closed tomorrow because of it, and I know Stanwood middle school was apparently a mess as well due to the same thing, they were sure if they would be able to open tomorrow or not. 

  • Sad 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The fact there isn't any headlines for most of Western Washington is absolutely ridiculous .

Not sure what the hell happened with our nws but they have lost all there nerve or skill. When you have the most powerful models in the world showing ice like is shown the public should be notified.  It is in 24hrs!!!

either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet.  I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one.  I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will.  didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? 

  • Like 5
  • Downvote 2
  • Troll 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet.  I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one.  I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will.  didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? 

I think he’s talking about no notice for freezing rain not snow. It’s pretty clear it’s going to be a problem Tuesday/ Wednesday but absolutely no warning up right now. 

  • Like 7

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I guess some you posted had snow for Vancouver. I don’t care either way it’s just not fun to look at.

I took great enjoyment in seeing Tim's snow maps, and I hope he posts more because I'm a cheapskate without a WB subscription. 🤷‍♂️

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, North_County said:

I took great enjoyment in seeing Tim's snow maps, and I hope he posts more because I'm a cheapskate without a WB subscription. 🤷‍♂️

It feels like he has posted snow maps with no snow for anybody’s backyard. But like I said I don’t actually care. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't remember the wind bust, what happened

NWS went all in but the low either filled or went further north before making landfall, I can’t remember now. 

IMG_1946.jpeg

  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't remember the wind bust, what happened

Pretty much all models were predicting one of the strongest windstorms in Seattle history with a strong low tracking over the Olympics and bent back occlusion roaring right through the Puget Sound.  NWS warned accordingly and had pie on their face when the low deepened more than modeled, tracked further offshore, and it was hardly even breezy. 
 

The public lost a lot of their confidence in Mets after that and ever since the NWS has been extremely gun shy about predicting anything severe until it’s actually started happening. 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

image.png

@Phil Come laugh at this with me. What a cruel joke of a sounding!!

  • Like 2
  • lol 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet.  I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one.  I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will.  didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? 

I agree.  Just a quick glance and a lot of the possible freezing rain happens with temps right at freezing, according to the map, but they might think the actual temps will be above freezing.  Those temp maps are not a real high resolution map.  

Still it needs to be watched closely.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ECMWF, GFS, GEM, and NAM 3km all say about 8" IMBY. HRDPS does not cover the entire length of the event yet, but is clearly trending that way.

Expecting 4–6" because temperatures will be marginal and I expect some of it will be mixed with rain. It's the old phantom snow problem.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
  • Downvote 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

NWS went all in but the low either filled or went further north before making landfall, I can’t remember now. 

IMG_1946.jpeg

That windstorm miss was a big deal for the NWS. That event severely eroded public trust and sparked an internal investigation. It was pretty severe for the context, IMO.

The storm ultimately missed to the north. iirc the WRF was the first to hook it north into southern Vancouver Island, a prediction the NWS was understandably weary of given the model consensus. Then each subsequent model suite brought significant bumps north as the track error corrected, until the actual low came in well north of even last minute model guidance and tracked into central Vancouver Island. Terrible fail with no warning. It was so heartbreaking having to deal with the rug pull, as well as watch the NWS get their asses handed to them by a criminally uninformed media.

  • Like 7

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't remember the wind bust, what happened

It was supposed to be a truly epically massive windstorm.  My wife made me go out and buy a crap-ton of extra flashlights, batteries and food because we happened to have family staying with us.  We were going to be without power for days and our guests would be stuck here (they took the train up).  My adult soccer league cancelled games that weekend because they moved the goals to more secure locations and tied them down to avoid them taking off in the wind and doing damage (I wish I was joking).

 

In the end, the wind (at least here in Bellingham) barely met advisory levels.  I don't think it got mush worse anywhere else.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That windstorm miss was a big deal for the NWS. That event severely eroded public trust and sparked an internal investigation. It was pretty severe for the context, IMO.

The storm ultimately missed to the north. iirc the WRF was the first to hook it north into southern Vancouver Island, a prediction the NWS was understandably weary of given the model consensus. Then each subsequent model suite brought significant bumps north as the track error corrected, until the actual low came in well north of even last minute model guidance and tracked into central Vancouver Island. Terrible fail with no warning. It was so heartbreaking having to deal with the rug pull, as well as watch the NWS get their asses handed to them by a criminally uninformed media.

I was really looking forward to that beast…That never came. 😞

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Randy... 00Z GEM has you just inside the pepto!   

gem-all-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-5557600.png

I like this trend. @TT-SEA I take back all of the horrible things I said about you to my wife, my neighbor, the meet up, the North Bend City Council, and the King County sheriff who lives a block away from you.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • lol 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That windstorm miss was a big deal for the NWS. That event severely eroded public trust and sparked an internal investigation. It was pretty severe for the context, IMO.

The storm ultimately missed to the north. iirc the WRF was the first to hook it north into southern Vancouver Island, a prediction the NWS was understandably weary of given the model consensus. Then each subsequent model suite brought significant bumps north as the track error corrected, until the actual low came in well north of even last minute model guidance and tracked into central Vancouver Island. Terrible fail with no warning. It was so heartbreaking having to deal with the rug pull, as well as watch the NWS get their asses handed to them by a criminally uninformed media.

Didn’t it form a double barrel low as well?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

either that or they're a lot smarter than a forum of armchair meteorologists model riding on the internet.  I'd trust the degreed scientists on this one.  I'm sure if something presents itself to change the forecast they will.  didn't the NBM show basically nothing for the western lowlands south of the border? 

Eh....you'd think so, but the track record for the Seattle office hasn't been stellar of late.  Lots of watches and warnings issued after we are well into the event that warranted the watch/warning.  "Hey there's 5" of snow on the ground, maybe we should issue a winter weather advisory."

 

I seem to remember that right around the time JAYA retired, a lot of other "senior" mets in the Seattle office also retired/left.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...