February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Slushy Inch]

Pscz special!

[Jbolin]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High resolution HRDPS (RGEM)

 

9" for Gorst? 

[Doinko]

Snowed about a half inch a year ago, a week before the big storm

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

9" for Gorst? 

Bremerton Airport, pretty snowy spot.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

850s are colder for this than current event.

The current event is more about a cool/dry low level airmass and offshore flow interacting with precip, than it is about upper air temps.

It’s common for 850s to be pretty chilly with maritime polar troughs, especially late in the season like this. But that doesn’t necessarily translate to colder temps in the lowlands thanks to surface onshore flow.

Not trying to “trash” you, for the record. Just adding some info. It does seem like you’re still learning which is ok obviously.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The current event is more about a cool/dry low level airmass and offshore flow interacting with precip, than it is about upper air temps.

It’s common for 850s to be pretty chilly with maritime polar troughs, especially late in the season like this. But that doesn’t necessarily translate to colder temps in the lowlands thanks to surface onshore flow.

Not trying to “trash” you, for the record. Just adding some info. It does seem like you’re still learning which is ok obviously.

I understand, I should’ve chosen a less negative word than “trashed”.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I think we're in for a MAJOR snowstorm. Snow is super heavy in la pine, we just got our first flakes.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The current event is more about a cool/dry low level airmass and offshore flow interacting with precip, than it is about upper air temps.

It’s common for 850s to be pretty chilly with maritime polar troughs, especially late in the season like this. But that doesn’t necessarily translate to colder temps in the lowlands thanks to surface onshore flow.

Not trying to “trash” you, for the record. Just adding some info. It does seem like you’re still learning which is ok obviously.

And also with these events if your spot turns to snow and precip rates remain decent with continued offshore flow most of the time it will remain snow until front passage. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

33 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

PDX was really good and YVR was really good also. I think @Rubus Leucodermis said he got 30+ inches? We were really close to a great regional winter minus the Puget Sound.

Yes, I got just a hair under 36" last winter. Scored double digit snowfalls in both December and February.

[snow maniac]

18 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Pscz special!

Wow once again in the shaft zone. NW flow kills it here

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, snow maniac said:

Wow once again in the shaft zone. NW flow kills it here

Thats in 2 weeks

[OysterPrintout]

2017 comparisons seem weird at least from a model perspective. Almost all models agreed on that having some sort of accumulating snow down here. You mostly have to hang your hat on the GFS right now for anything outside of a dusting.

 

@Deweydogrequesting your local mesoscale wizard glass visions.

[Randyc321]

Wind is picking up and the air is starting to dry out.  Maybe it's coming.

 

 

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Randyc321 said:

Wind is picking up and the air is starting to dry out.  Maybe it's coming.

 

 

 

 

Coming back from the wa coast this morning there was quite a bit of frost. Certainly feels drier out and the wind has been blowing.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Wind is picking up and the air is starting to dry out.  Maybe it's coming.

 

 

 

 

I hope so.  You and I have been basically shut out this season so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the end of the month is gonna be money! 

[bainbridgekid]

7 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Wow once again in the shaft zone. NW flow kills it here

IDK your exact location, but Mason County is one of the best spots for snow with tonight's storm. Focus on that not a fantasy storm 15 days out.

[MossMan]

Going to get fun at the end of the month/beginning of March! 

Edited February 14 by MossMan

[Jbolin]

24 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Bremerton Airport, pretty snowy spot.

Makes sense, it is after all a METAR site. 

[umadbro]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

IDK your exact location, but Mason County is one of the best spots for snow with tonight's storm. Focus on that not a fantasy storm 15 days out.

Is there a rule book for what when and how we’re supposed to focus on? If so please share it.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Snowed about a half inch a year ago, a week before the big storm

And a really nice sunset that day

 

[bainbridgekid]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Olympia, Chehalis, and Hood Canal.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
347 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

WAZ504-511-512-142100-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WW.Y.0006.240215T0600Z-240215T1800Z/
Southwest Interior-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
including Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater, Yelm, Grand Mound, Rochester,
Centralia, Toledo, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Montesano,
Elma, and McCleary
347 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to
  two inches.

* WHERE...Lowlands of Thurston, western Lewis, and far southeast
  Mason Counties, including Harstine Island, Olympia, Centralia,
  and Toledo, Western Kitsap and the lowlands of eastern
  Jefferson and Mason Counties, including Brinnon, Seabeck, and
  Shelton and Far southwest Mason County and the interior
  lowlands of Grays Harbor County, including Matlock, McCleary,
  and Montesano.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

2017 comparisons seem weird at least from a model perspective. Almost all models agreed on that having some sort of accumulating snow down here. You mostly have to hang your hat on the GFS right now for anything outside of a dusting.

 

@Deweydogrequesting your local mesoscale wizard glass visions.

This event really isn't similar at all to 2017. That storm was being steadily suppressed with an arctic airmass advecting into it at 850mb , which gave it its frontogenic nature. 

This storm is effectively splitting and won't be phasing nearly as well with what is also a much weaker continental airmass. 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

IDK your exact location, but Mason County is one of the best spots for snow with tonight's storm. Focus on that not a fantasy storm 15 days out.

All focus should be at day 15 for everyone north of Seattle! 

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

This event really isn't similar at all to 2017. That storm was being steadily suppressed with an arctic airmass advecting into it at 850mb , which gave it its frontogenic nature. 

This storm is effectively splitting and won't be phasing nearly as well with what is also a much weaker continental airmass. 

What do you think is gonna happen. Looks like it could produce out this way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

And a really nice sunset that day

 

Solid event. We had about 4” with a 33/23 day.

[BLI snowman]

There will definitely be some areas of the Hood Canal and Kitsap Peninsula that get 5"+. 

NWS Seattle is as stingy as NWS Portland is quixotic. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

There will definitely be some areas of the Hood Canal and Kitsap Peninsula that get 5"+. 

NWS Seattle is as stingy as NWS Portland is quixotic. 

Good they are being stingy. If they had gone big it would have been the kiss of death.

P.S. The only reason Portland NWS is now so "quixotic" is that they got burned big by over relying on the NBM last year.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

What do you think is gonna happen. Looks like it could produce out this way.

I think there's a decent chance for Coast Range cold air damming spots from Forest Grove on up through Columbia County to get a quick inch this evening before the warmer air mixes in.

Probably just some brief snow in the air for everyone else this evening in PDX/VUO. 

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Good they are being stingy. If they had gone big it would have been the kiss of death.

I'm struggling to even think of a time when SEW did go big on snow.

The PQR curse is a pretty well documented phenomena. Tonight being an example of them overdoing it. Next time it will be the opposite. Rinse, wash, repeat.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Olympia, Chehalis, and Hood Canal.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
347 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

WAZ504-511-512-142100-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WW.Y.0006.240215T0600Z-240215T1800Z/
Southwest Interior-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
including Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater, Yelm, Grand Mound, Rochester,
Centralia, Toledo, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Montesano,
Elma, and McCleary
347 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to
  two inches.

* WHERE...Lowlands of Thurston, western Lewis, and far southeast
  Mason Counties, including Harstine Island, Olympia, Centralia,
  and Toledo, Western Kitsap and the lowlands of eastern
  Jefferson and Mason Counties, including Brinnon, Seabeck, and
  Shelton and Far southwest Mason County and the interior
  lowlands of Grays Harbor County, including Matlock, McCleary,
  and Montesano.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Funny, 8 hrs ago there was no mention of snow in the forecast and now we have an advisory. I texted my mom and they had no idea at all and had plans to go somewhere tonight and i told them it might get bad so you should stay home. Terrible forecast office. Nothing like they used to be.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There will definitely be some areas of the Hood Canal and Kitsap Peninsula that get 5"+. 

NWS Seattle is as stingy as NWS Portland is quixotic. 

I'm going for 6-10 range here but wouldn't be surprised to get a foot.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This reminds me of some of the borderline events from 2019. One of the events that look much like this one was a prediction of 1-3 and i got 18 lol.

[Slushy Inch]

Nice and low dewpoints this evening.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

Backed off some for sure, but still in the 5 range here. is it temps or precip issue?

[Weiner Warrior]

Have to post just because there's pepto.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

another thing, why isn't there a warning for the Olympics?? Not even advisory? euro shows well over 1 foot there.

[RCola]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It does have snow depth map... never looked at it before.   This is tomorrow morning at 7 a.m. which I assume would be the peak for the Seattle area.

Thanks! Looks on par for the Seattle area. (I'm surprised to even see shades of blue there.) It's definitely underdone towards the peninsula. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Have to post just because there's pepto.

Sure Hoquiam will break there all time snow record lol.