BLI snowman Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Was in 1935 or 1936 when Portland had 5” of snow around April 1st? Portland had a 37/31 with 5" of snow on April Fool's Day in 1936. 1935-36 was an insane cold season, with the October arctic blast/snow, the historically cold February, and then the late March/early April event. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Pretty gusty south winds at times here now, probably 40mph. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Sunny for a bit in the morning, but we just had a big downpour. Windy too 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 At this point I think the chances are pretty good we will get into a deep trough again during the later part of the month. We are in an amplified regime and the chances of a ridge staying put for more than a week are very low with big MJO wave in play right now. As the wave moves the forcing it causes in the mid latitudes will move as well. As for next winter....it's actually more likely than not it will be amplified based on recent trends alone. Some decades are simply more amplified than others and this one is up there in the blocking department. Add to that the fact we will probably have a Nina going with positive QBO, and you have a good likelihood the blocking will be in favorable locations for us. Big Nino to Nina transition is yet another thing our favor. This decade is on track to be a really good one for us overall. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Portland had a 37/31 with 5" of snow on April Fool's Day in 1936. 1935-36 was an insane cold season, with the October arctic blast/snow, the historically cold February, and then the late March/early April event. The next winter was superb as well. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 The GFS has owned the ECMWF for precip this morning. The ECMWF showed a wet morning here and there hasn't been a drop. Not sure what is going on with the ECMWF lately. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 40 mph in Everett and 36 at SEA. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think we are due for a 19th century winter. CANSIPs says next year is our year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 40 mph in Everett and 36 at SEA. In a sheltered area in Lowell and you'd think it was a non event kind of day. I miss windstorms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The GFS has owned the ECMWF for precip this morning. The ECMWF showed a wet morning here and there hasn't been a drop. Not sure what is going on with the ECMWF lately. well globals are for pattern recognition more than backyard forecasting, so nothing is wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The GFS has owned the ECMWF for precip this morning. The ECMWF showed a wet morning here and there hasn't been a drop. Not sure what is going on with the ECMWF lately. Very minor differences between the GFS and the ECMWF for this morning. Both showed offshore flow hanging on this morning with the focus of the precip to the west. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think we are due for a 19th century winter. We know that would last one month. Just gimme a summer full of 80's, I can put up with some humidity. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Palm trees look better in Seattle then San Diego. Looks like Ocean Beach. We were there in December. Is the pier still closed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Interesting. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 7 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said: It seems like it’s gearing towards one.. in 2022 I would barely be at my first thunder right now and those were garden variety in early Spring. Post-strong niño summers have the highest frequency of derecho activity and overall severe weather activity across western Appalachia. And a longer convective season too. Yeah I’d be bullish if I lived there. 5 hours ago, TT-SEA said: The end of the ECMWF AI run confirms what you are saying. Seems like ridging over there is the default now despite short periods of deep troughing. Very bad omen. Niño winters that end warm are almost always followed by horrible summers out this way. I was hoping for a 1958-like base state evolution (still theoretically possible) but it seems the IPWP extension will wait another year. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Post-strong niño summers have the highest frequency of derecho activity and overall severe weather activity across western Appalachia. And a longer convective season too. Yeah I’d be bullish if I lived there. Very bad omen. Niño winters that end warm are almost always followed by horrible summers out this way. I was hoping for a 1958-like base state evolution (still theoretically possible) but it seems the IPWP extension will wait another year. Strong Nina or weak Nina incoming? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 On 3/7/2024 at 8:20 PM, BLI snowman said: Yeah, and the 1957 Nino reset things somewhat after a 9 year stretch where we were constantly in the default trough position in the winter. Even 1952-53 acted very traditionally -PDO and had record January cold in AK that almost spilled down here (think 2019-20). We're coming up on 9 years of a similar, albeit toned down version of the same thing. But interestingly the big Nino didn't seem to shake things up much. Would be ironic if a giant Nina this year did, but odds are it probably won't. It’s often not apparent how a strong niño has shaken up the base state until after it concludes. The 2015/16 niño did perturb the base state but it didn’t reflect in the pattern until winter 2016/17 onwards. The effects of the 1997/98 niño also didn’t manifest cleanly until autumn 1998. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Strong Nina or weak Nina incoming? I don’t know yet. Hopefully weak niña/cold neutral. Timing of +QBO descent suggests stronger niña but the residual element of +IOD/cooler E-IO (should it continue) would point to a weaker event. A stronger single year niña like 1988/89 followed by an intradecadal absence of niña activity as seen then is also possible. That IPWP extension will happen relatively soon, at which point +ENSO will dominate over -ENSO for 5-8 years. But probably not this year. I was initially optimistic it would occur this year, but in hindsight it makes sense it wouldn’t occur following an EPAC emergent niño and descent westerly shear. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 7 minutes ago, Phil said: Interesting. Lots of simplistic and dumb things there, but one thing that jumped out to me was the comparing of the Ketchikan/Prince Rupert area to Germany. Very odd. Ketchikan is fully oceanic and averages 150" of precip per year and the wettest parts of Germany are humid continental climates that average 50-60" down towards the foothills of the Alps. The coastline of Norway (near and north of Bergen) is a very good comparison to the Ketchikan and Prince Rupert areas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Lots of simplistic and dumb things there, but one thing that jumped out to me was the comparing of the Ketchikan/Prince Rupert area to Germany. Very odd. Ketchikan is fully oceanic and averages 150" of precip per year and the wettest parts of Germany are humid continental climates that average 50-60" down towards the foothills of the Alps. The coastline of Norway (near and north of Bergen) is a very good comparison to the Ketchikan and Prince Rupert areas. I think they only looked at the seasonality in temps/precip and nothing beyond that. Because SW US precip seasonality (double sine wave) is actually inverted from the middle eastern countries listed. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF does not look like its going the retrogression route at the end of the run. 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: That big lobe of high pressure just south of AK could do it though. With a big MJO wave in play I can't imagine the ridge staying in one place for too long. The 12z EURO AI shows that after the initial ridge, another ridge builds in after it. There is no sign of retrogression and at day 15 it looks like an atmospheric river is on the way. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 29 minutes ago, Phil said: Post-strong niño summers have the highest frequency of derecho activity and overall severe weather activity across western Appalachia. And a longer convective season too. Yeah I’d be bullish if I lived there. Very bad omen. Niño winters that end warm are almost always followed by horrible summers out this way. I was hoping for a 1958-like base state evolution (still theoretically possible) but it seems the IPWP extension will wait another year. Summer of 1958 was just a touch on the warm side out west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Summer of 1958 was just a touch on the warm side out west. I’d love to repeat that summer. Basically mid-80s and thunderstorms the whole way through. Only 15 days at/above 90°F that entire year. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: At this point I think the chances are pretty good we will get into a deep trough again during the later part of the month. We are in an amplified regime and the chances of a ridge staying put for more than a week are very low with big MJO wave in play right now. As the wave moves the forcing it causes in the mid latitudes will move as well. As for next winter....it's actually more likely than not it will be amplified based on recent trends alone. Some decades are simply more amplified than others and this one is up there in the blocking department. Add to that the fact we will probably have a Nina going with positive QBO, and you have a good likelihood the blocking will be in favorable locations for us. Big Nino to Nina transition is yet another thing our favor. This decade is on track to be a really good one for us overall. Aside from the vomit worthy late-April to early September periods, I would agree with this assessment. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted March 9 Author Report Share Posted March 9 52F with some showers. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Hail! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, Phil said: Post-strong niño summers have the highest frequency of derecho activity and overall severe weather activity across western Appalachia. And a longer convective season too. Yeah I’d be bullish if I lived there. Very bad omen. Niño winters that end warm are almost always followed by horrible summers out this way. I was hoping for a 1958-like base state evolution (still theoretically possible) but it seems the IPWP extension will wait another year. We had to deal with a permanent west coast ridge for most of the past decade. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: The 12z EURO AI shows that after the initial ridge, another ridge builds in after it. There is no sign of retrogression and at day 15 it looks like an atmospheric river is on the way. Lots of rain could also be a blessing. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Down to 38. Brrrrr 1 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Hailing while the sun shines here. Dynamic. 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Impressive little storm blowing through. Strong gusty winds and pea sized hail. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Heard a clap of thunder about 20 minutes ago during a heavy rain squall. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Wicked windy out there mates 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Squalls have very strong winds today. Got hit directly finally, going to have a nice video to post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 Currently getting some Hail here. Also looks like there was some lightning over Seattle a few minutes ago. Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 41FE6051-639B-4ED9-8820-19A233CB2F42.mp4 4 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 A southerly PDX gust over 40??? I must be seeing things. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: 41FE6051-639B-4ED9-8820-19A233CB2F42.mp4 Downright Oklahoma-esque!!! And people say we don’t get good fronts here…. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 9 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Downright Oklahoma-esque!!! And people say we don’t get good fronts here…. Was that a front though? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 9 Report Share Posted March 9 SW 33g47 at PDX! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by SouthHillFrosty,
31 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by Sunriver Snow Zone,
12 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.