MossMan Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Looks like I am watching football and not chaining up the snow plow now. February should be a good month. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks Whet A bit better than last nights 0Z run. Trough is a little deeper, ridge offshore slightly more amplified. Not enough for the lowlands of course, but would indicate slightly lower snow levels. I get buried in a pattern like this. But I still would like to see a regional arctic outbreak for everyone. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: A bit better than last nights 0Z run. Trough is a little deeper, ridge offshore slightly more amplified. Not enough for the lowlands of course, but would indicate slightly lower snow levels. I get buried in a pattern like this. But I still would like to see a regional arctic outbreak for everyone. Much lower heights compared to the 06z. Still not enough blocking though. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks Whet Hopefully stormy too. ⛈ batten down the Christmas decorations 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: A bit better than last nights 0Z run. Trough is a little deeper, ridge offshore slightly more amplified. Not enough for the lowlands of course, but would indicate slightly lower snow levels. I get buried in a pattern like this. But I still would like to see a regional arctic outbreak for everyone. It's definitely not the worst pattern in the world. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Trend over the last 3 runs. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Trend over the last 3 runs. Now that is a lovely trend! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Trend over the last 3 runs. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF ensembles have a similar trend. Maybe Ventrice's IBM model will be wrong, and there was something off with last nights runs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Similar trend with the Canadian. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Jesse’s favorite Cliff Mass blog post of all time? https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: Jesse’s favorite Cliff Mass blog post of all time? https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1 I’m starting to think that Tim is just Cliff’s alter ego. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Seven years ago today it SNOWED! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Seven years ago today it SNOWED! My old Suburban had frost on it!! Does that count? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Right now it appears the challenge will be to join the mid latitude offshore ridging with the high latitude block being depicted for week 2. If they join things could get very interesting. At any rate a very cold theme is emerging for Alaska. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Seven years ago today it SNOWED! And of course I was in Texas missing the coldest temps here since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still haven’t experienced a temp below 12F. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Also I sadly think Ventrice will be right. Gonna have to wait a while longer. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: And of course I was in Texas missing the coldest temps here since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still haven’t experienced a temp below 12F. It’s unlikely you’ll experience anything colder than that this winter. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: It’s unlikely you’ll experience anything colder than that this winter. It's unlikely I will experience anything colder for the rest of my life. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 The ECMWF is far from terrible at day 10. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: It's unlikely I will experience anything colder for the rest of my life. No it's not. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 33 minutes ago, MossMan said: My old Suburban had frost on it!! Does that count? Is that from this morning? EDIT: I just noticed the 2013 part of the time stamp. I am just surprised he would save a pic of frost. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Is that from this morning? 7 years ago... its date stamped. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said: Merry Christmas Doesn't really line up with the model runs we've been seeing. We shall see. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Doesn't really line up with the model runs we've been seeing. We shall see. Thinking it lined up with last night's runs. Riding was flat in the long term. But today's trends are better, so maybe the IBM model will be wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 FWIW, I've seen Ventrice be wrong many a time, or rather the IBM model. It's going to be wrong again. 12z EURO! WHATTTTT! 18z GFS in 2 hours 7 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 hours ago, jakerepp said: Yep, probably the same thing. They’re notorious for just quitting while driving. They checked it out a couple years and said it wasn’t affected but I’m skeptical. My buddy has a 2013. He said he found the recall, entered his VIN online and it said he was eligible. He then called the dealer, told them what happened, then played dumb "I heard there may be a recall..." He said he had to pay for his towing to the dealer. They had the work approved the same day and the new engine in within a week Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Looks like the 12z CFS likes the idea of swinging the AK cold down here in late December. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 25 minutes ago, Deweydog said: It’s unlikely you’ll experience anything colder than that this winter. On the other hand the chances are probably above average given the robust Nina and all. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Jim, are you able to see the EPS at WB? It is really slow on weathermodels.com, as are the other parts of the ECMWF. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 That weak system/front did not mix out the Columbia Basin cold pool, in fact, it has strengthened. Nice. 925mb temps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 I now have windy drizzle. still 46 degrees. .02” on the day so far! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 9 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: This run is more like the 18z than the 00z so far. Though some key differences: GOA trough is further south, heights over the Bering Strait and extreme eastern Russia are much higher, western Canada is troughier, and AK is a complete reversal. Monitoring for the sake of having nothing better to do... #weenietime The bolded, by itself, is not a great thing for WAFz/blocking, FWIW. A persistent (and/or anomalously strong) low over Okhotsk Sea/NE Asia is what I look for as a precursor to high latitude blocking. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Mild day, up to 48. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: That would be fortunate timing. After mid/late Dec, tropics/GWO become favorable for -PNA once again during the 2nd/3rd week of January; under evolving wave train climo. Lots of potential going forward, and it doesn’t look like a thread the needle situation either. There’s room for error. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Jim, are you able to see the EPS at WB? It is really slow on weathermodels.com, as are the other parts of the ECMWF. Here is the 12Z EPS... note the last frame has not loaded and its been stuck for about 10 minutes. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 6 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Didn't like his next tweet though. There’s an MJO/CCKW excursion east of the dateline during the first part of January, so regardless of what happens upstairs, that’s a (relatively) +PNA window. But it’s mostly passed by the ~ 10th (+/- a few days). Can’t expect models to fully grasp that progression a month in advance. Assuming I’m seeing it correctly, which isn’t necessarily the case. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 13 hours ago, jakerepp said: It was a 2011 Sonata, rated the least reliable car since 2010 by car complaints.com. My son's friend had the same thing happen to him while driving. It was a Sonata, don't remember the year, but it was somewhere in that time frame. Eventually the dealer replaced the engine at no cost. It just took them a long time to actually do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: Merry Christmas Christmas will be a huge torch East of the Rockies. Take that to the bank. Everything in the system favors such an outcome. Whether it’s correspondingly cold in the west, or a steambath 1999 type pattern with AK vortex, is less certain. The former seems more likely to me, but the IO is a bit more active than I’d like at the moment. Don’t want too much convection there. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fircrest said: My son's friend had the same thing happen to him while driving. It was a Sonata, don't remember the year, but it was somewhere in that time frame. Eventually the dealer replaced the engine at no cost. It just took them a long time to actually do it. Heck I’d probably take that. Just buy something ahead of time and wait for the engine to be replaced and eventually sell it. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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