Tom Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Clinton said: Are we getting good sampling with the energy diving fairly deep into Mexico right now? Yes and No...I'd like to wait till tomorrows 12z runs to see how this storm begins to develop deep down in TX... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: Are we getting good sampling with the energy diving fairly deep into Mexico right now? Keeping a close eye on that secondary piece that is riding on the heels of the main ULL...looks like it drops a couple inches in MO and up this way. Back to back days with snow falling??? #winning2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 Whew this system really crapped out. Looking like maybe a 1-2” system here optimistically. Not gonna complain tho. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 After looking at this morning's data I have a few thoughts (for the KC area): 1) I think the majority of the metro (with the exception of maybe areas to the Southeast like Lee's Summit) will remain below freezing and we will see a freezing rain event, transitioning to sleet, and then snow. 2) QPF's will increase as you move south and southeast from St. Joe. I think the GFS shows this potential well. 3) Among the areas that remain below freezing for the entirety of the storm, the most likely areas for the most ice is to the south of the City. I think the GFS does a good job of portraying this potential as well. 4) The biggest question: When will the temperatures in the 800-900 mb layer go below freezing? This is the 850 mb valid at 9 a.m. Areas in the blue outlined by the white line are below freezing. You can see this happening first south and west of the City. These are the areas that will characterized by the most snow. This detail is so huge and so tiny and that is why snow totals are going to be hard to predict. This is an odd storm, so odd things may happen. A couple of other notes: - I'm noticing in the ensembles a trend of snow going back to freezing rain as the precip lightens up as it is moving away. - There is a snow pack in Iowa that could push the baroclinic zone further south. - This storm due to heavy precip rates and its strength could generate its own cold air. Final thoughts: Ice: 0.3-0.6 of freezing rain expected resulting in 0.1-0.3 inches of Ice-- up to a half inch of Ice south and east of KC Snow: 1-4 inches of snow, potential for 6-8 inches of snow west and southwest of the City (Topeka, Emporia) Would love to know what you guys think! Jack 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 19 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said: After looking at this morning's data I have a few thoughts (for the KC area): 1) I think the majority of the metro (with the exception of maybe areas to the Southeast like Lee's Summit) will remain below freezing and we will see a freezing rain event, transitioning to sleet, and then snow. 2) QPF's will increase as you move south and southeast from St. Joe. I think the GFS shows this potential well. 3) Among the areas that remain below freezing for the entirety of the storm, the most likely areas for the most ice is to the south of the City. I think the GFS does a good job of portraying this potential as well. 4) The biggest question: When will the temperatures in the 800-900 mb layer go below freezing? This is the 850 mb valid at 9 a.m. Areas in the blue outlined by the white line are below freezing. You can see this happening first south and west of the City. These are the areas that will characterized by the most snow. This detail is so huge and so tiny and that is why snow totals are going to be hard to predict. This is an odd storm, so odd things may happen. A couple of other notes: - I'm noticing in the ensembles a trend of snow going back to freezing rain as the precip lightens up as it is moving away. - There is a snow pack in Iowa that could push the baroclinic zone further south. - This storm due to heavy precip rates and its strength could generate its own cold air. Final thoughts: Ice: 0.3-0.6 of freezing rain expected resulting in 0.1-0.3 inches of Ice-- up to a half inch of Ice south and east of KC Snow: 1-4 inches of snow, potential for 6-8 inches of snow west and southwest of the City (Topeka, Emporia) Would love to know what you guys think! Jack Thank you very much for the breakdown, it was well thought out and you very well may be correct with your forecaTst. The only thing I would say is that as of today I don't trust the GFS with thermals. My hope is that it will be colder at the 800-900mb level. My fear is that it won't be and it will be colder at the surface than what the GFS shows. Hoping the snow pack to the north can throw me a bone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 12z GFS EPS and CMC mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 This storm sure has weakened from just a couple days ago. That’s ok. I don’t need to shovel anymore up here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 12z Euro...close up near GL's...looking better up this way...this includes the second piece on Sat/Sun... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Jack_GradStudent said: After looking at this morning's data I have a few thoughts (for the KC area): 1) I think the majority of the metro (with the exception of maybe areas to the Southeast like Lee's Summit) will remain below freezing and we will see a freezing rain event, transitioning to sleet, and then snow. 2) QPF's will increase as you move south and southeast from St. Joe. I think the GFS shows this potential well. 3) Among the areas that remain below freezing for the entirety of the storm, the most likely areas for the most ice is to the south of the City. I think the GFS does a good job of portraying this potential as well. 4) The biggest question: When will the temperatures in the 800-900 mb layer go below freezing? This is the 850 mb valid at 9 a.m. Areas in the blue outlined by the white line are below freezing. You can see this happening first south and west of the City. These are the areas that will characterized by the most snow. This detail is so huge and so tiny and that is why snow totals are going to be hard to predict. This is an odd storm, so odd things may happen. A couple of other notes: - I'm noticing in the ensembles a trend of snow going back to freezing rain as the precip lightens up as it is moving away. - There is a snow pack in Iowa that could push the baroclinic zone further south. - This storm due to heavy precip rates and its strength could generate its own cold air. Final thoughts: Ice: 0.3-0.6 of freezing rain expected resulting in 0.1-0.3 inches of Ice-- up to a half inch of Ice south and east of KC Snow: 1-4 inches of snow, potential for 6-8 inches of snow west and southwest of the City (Topeka, Emporia) Would love to know what you guys think! Jack I’m in Lawrence so i think this storm will be perfect for me to get some of the heaviest snows. I also think the fresh snowpack just to the north will help in pulling in colder air than what the models are picking up on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 30 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro...close up near GL's...looking better up this way...this includes the second piece on Sat/Sun... 3” here. That means more shoveling. LOL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 18z NAM cranked up the amounts. Good hits for Topeka, St. Joe, and Chicago 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 GRR's take on the storm. They feel models aren't handling it well? Forecast reasoning: Powerful upper low off the Pacific Northwest will serve as an upstream kicker for the cutoff low currently over northwest Mexico. This cutoff low features 500 mb heights that are very rare in terms of how low they are at such a southern latitude. There is some indication that models are not initializing this feature well, perhaps due to a combination of the low`s highly anomalous nature and sub-optimal sampling of the atmosphere over NW Mexico (due to a relative lack of aircraft measurements and POES swaths). All of this suggests we could see an especially compact and intense upper PV max approaching our area on New Years Day. With such strong and relatively localized dynamical forcing possible, we could see a wide variety of precipitation types and intensities unfolding New Years Day into evening. Deterministic models have recently shown a slight run to run cooling trend at lower levels. The character of warm air aloft is also far from certain. This has great bearing on precipitation type and tends to feature a lot of forecast sensitivity to begin with, and that is before introducing any possible dynamical cooling effects we might see with the upper PV max. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 18z ICON continues SE trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: GRR's take on the storm. They feel models aren't handling it well? Forecast reasoning: Powerful upper low off the Pacific Northwest will serve as an upstream kicker for the cutoff low currently over northwest Mexico. This cutoff low features 500 mb heights that are very rare in terms of how low they are at such a southern latitude. There is some indication that models are not initializing this feature well, perhaps due to a combination of the low`s highly anomalous nature and sub-optimal sampling of the atmosphere over NW Mexico (due to a relative lack of aircraft measurements and POES swaths). All of this suggests we could see an especially compact and intense upper PV max approaching our area on New Years Day. With such strong and relatively localized dynamical forcing possible, we could see a wide variety of precipitation types and intensities unfolding New Years Day into evening. Deterministic models have recently shown a slight run to run cooling trend at lower levels. The character of warm air aloft is also far from certain. This has great bearing on precipitation type and tends to feature a lot of forecast sensitivity to begin with, and that is before introducing any possible dynamical cooling effects we might see with the upper PV max. I wondered about sampling with the energy so deep in Mexico. Seems I remember Lezak saying something about this with storms in the past that dug deep like this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 22 minutes ago, Stacsh said: GRR's take on the storm. They feel models aren't handling it well? Forecast reasoning: Powerful upper low off the Pacific Northwest will serve as an upstream kicker for the cutoff low currently over northwest Mexico. This cutoff low features 500 mb heights that are very rare in terms of how low they are at such a southern latitude. There is some indication that models are not initializing this feature well, perhaps due to a combination of the low`s highly anomalous nature and sub-optimal sampling of the atmosphere over NW Mexico (due to a relative lack of aircraft measurements and POES swaths). All of this suggests we could see an especially compact and intense upper PV max approaching our area on New Years Day. With such strong and relatively localized dynamical forcing possible, we could see a wide variety of precipitation types and intensities unfolding New Years Day into evening. Deterministic models have recently shown a slight run to run cooling trend at lower levels. The character of warm air aloft is also far from certain. This has great bearing on precipitation type and tends to feature a lot of forecast sensitivity to begin with, and that is before introducing any possible dynamical cooling effects we might see with the upper PV max. @jaster220 thoughts on this upcoming system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 My AFD FXUS63 KEAX 302148 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 348 PM CST Wed Dec 30 2020 .Discussion... Issued at 347 PM CST WED DEC 30 2020 -The main concern this forecast period is for a high impact ice and snow event for New years Eve Night into New Years Day. Travel conditions are expected to be dangerous and power outages may be possible particularly for areas along and south of a line from Macon to the south KC Metro. As such we have a Winter Storm Watch in effect from 9PM Thursday through 6PM Friday. -The forecast changes with this forecast package have been slight but we have seen a slight shift to the south and east of the storm track. This would lend itself to a bit more snow over the northwestern portion of the forecast area and shift the swath of heavier ice accumulations slightly further south and east. In addition, the timing of this system has slowed slightly. Today we have gotten a brief break to the Winter weather however, temperatures remain cool with highs remaining below freezing along and north of Highway 36 and in the mid 30s south of Highway 36. The below normal temperatures have allowed for little to know melting where significant ice accumulated on trees and other surfaces. This may lead to further concerns with trees and powerlines coming down in the upcoming snow/ice storm. Tonight high pressure will move into the region dropping lows into the upper teens and 20s. Tomorrow, high pressure will remain in control for the daytime hours keeping conditions dry and cool with highs remaining in the 30s and again perhaps limiting melting of existing ice on tree limbs and powerlines. Tomorrow night, a upper level low, currently residing in northern Mexico will lift north across eastern Texas. A precipitation shield will lift northward into the area. Several challenges exist as far as p-type as well as potential ice accumulation as this system moves north into the cold air. The first challenge will be surface temperatures...current thinking is that surface temperatures will be below freezing over the entire CWA with the exception of extreme southern CWA which will hover right around freezing. The biggest challenge resides in warm nose temperatures. The EC is the coldest keeping the warm nose below freezing leading itself to more snow and less ice. The GFS has a warm nose of 2C-4C providing a prolonged period of freezing rain. The Hi-res solutions as well as the NAM are middle of the road solutions providing for a greater mix of p-type. Using a blended solution with a slight preference for the GFS yields a swath of ice along and east of the I-35 corridor of a 0.10"-0.25" with lesser amounts of ice west. There is the potential for a area of ice accumulation greater than 0.25" from Macon to the southern KC Metro. Due to uncertainty of where the heaviest band of ice will set up has precluded an upgrade to warning at this although one will most likely be needed across at least portion of the current watch area. In addition, west of the I-35 corridor, precipitation may mix for a while however thermal profiles here suggest more snow and less ice. As such, less than 0.1" of ice is expected in this area with 2 to 4 inches of snow. With mostly freezing rain expected Thursday night into Friday morning, a transition to ll snow is expected Friday morning as the column cools below freezing. Friday, the upper level system which has now become nearly stacked will ride the I-44 corridor finally shifting east of the area by Friday night. However, also of concern is winds will pick up out of the NE to 10-15kts with gusts to 25-30kts which aid in bringing down tree branches and power lines in areas where significant ice accretes. Highs will remain in the 30s Friday. Saturday another upper level low develops in the base of the broad upper level trough still remaining over the area. In a area of the enhanced upper level jet over the eastern CWA models provide enough force to produce light snow over areas east of Highway 65. Light accumulations may be possible. Highs Saturday will only reach the upper 20s to mid 30s. Conditions will quiet down after Saturday with a much needed warning trend and thaw. This will occur as northwest flow on Sunday relaxes and we enter a quasi zonal pattern early next week. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will reach the upper 30s to upper 40s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 Point of interest...Topeka mentioned the lack of upper air data in the AFD this afternoon and how it was making the forecast more uncertain: "Again, the uncertainty comes with the upper air data - or lack thereof - at this this time. The hope is this comes clear after the 12Z data tomorrow which will be about 18hrs prior to expected onset. Do expect that the watch will either be allowed to be converted next cycle or the day cycle tomorrow with more confidence overall in both amounts and location/duration." 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, mlgamer said: Point of interest...Topeka mentioned the lack of upper air data in the AFD this afternoon and how it was making the forecast more uncertain: "Again, the uncertainty comes with the upper air data - or lack thereof - at this this time. The hope is this comes clear after the 12Z data tomorrow which will be about 18hrs prior to expected onset. Do expect that the watch will either be allowed to be converted next cycle or the day cycle tomorrow with more confidence overall in both amounts and location/duration." Man if there is any kind of shift or change they won't have much time to get the word out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, Clinton said: Man if there is any kind of shift or change they won't have much time to get the word out. For sure. Interesting setup with the energy in Mexico as it is getting organized. 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 18z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 18z RGEM and GFS are very close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 Regardless that snow band being that narrow is ridiculous. Basically 100 miles and outside of that nothing. Great storm.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: Regardless that snow band being that narrow is ridiculous. Basically 100 miles and outside of that nothing. Great storm.. I keep trying to will this thing colder. I'd rather not have a half inch of ice, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 The HRR probably shouldn't be going out to 48hrs but it pounds us. How did it perform earlier this week? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: The HRR probably shouldn't be going out to 48hrs but it pounds us. How did it perform earlier this week? Very good. But I didn't look at much past 18-24 hours. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 Good luck to KC / MO / KS peeps!!! 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 18z Euro looking snowier for many, 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro looking snowier for many, It sure does. Its taking that golden "Toledo" track amigo. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Niko said: It sure does. Its taking that golden "Toledo" track amigo. Getting better on the track, now let raise amounts. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 anyone want raw #'s for 18Z Euro? go ahead and ask (slow night at work) here's a few and I'll try and hit peeps locations- MCI- FRI 12Z 01-JAN -1.8 2.8 1017 73 97 0.15 560 546 FRI 18Z 01-JAN -1.7 -0.4 1015 87 99 0.41 555 543 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -2.4 -1.2 1017 87 81 0.33 557 543 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -7.4 -0.3 1021 84 60 0.00 559 543 TOP FRI 06Z 01-JAN -1.7 2.9 1022 61 9 0.00 563 545 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -1.8 2.2 1017 72 95 0.07 559 545 FRI 18Z 01-JAN -2.1 -0.6 1016 86 100 0.42 555 542 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -2.5 -0.4 1018 78 87 0.19 558 543 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -7.6 0.2 1021 79 59 0.00 559 542 ICT- FRI 06Z 01-JAN 0.2 2.9 1018 54 68 0.00 560 546 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -1.2 0.6 1014 81 99 0.30 556 545 FRI 18Z 01-JAN -1.9 -1.4 1017 87 92 0.45 555 542 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -1.0 -0.1 1019 67 81 0.03 559 544 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -4.1 -0.1 1022 75 69 0.00 559 541 RCM- (for Clinton) did I get the right location? ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: RCM LAT= 38.78 LON= -93.80 ELE= 797 18Z DEC30 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 18Z 30-DEC 0.9 -3.6 1023 67 11 556 538 THU 00Z 31-DEC -1.5 -3.5 1024 70 7 556 537 THU 06Z 31-DEC -5.4 -2.8 1026 84 8 0.00 557 537 THU 12Z 31-DEC -6.5 -1.8 1026 88 9 0.00 560 539 THU 18Z 31-DEC 1.9 -0.1 1025 47 14 0.00 563 543 FRI 00Z 01-JAN -0.8 2.6 1023 62 8 0.00 564 546 FRI 06Z 01-JAN -1.7 3.6 1022 62 56 0.00 564 547 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -1.2 4.5 1016 87 99 0.55 560 548 FRI 18Z 01-JAN 0.0 -0.9 1011 92 89 0.69 553 544 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -1.6 -3.2 1015 90 75 0.20 556 544 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -2.4 -1.6 1019 87 58 0.01 560 545 SAT 12Z 02-JAN -4.8 -1.7 1020 80 74 0.00 557 541 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Getting better on the track, now let raise amounts. I agree and approved by me 100%. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 STJ- FRI 00Z 01-JAN -2.2 1.9 1024 59 26 0.00 563 544 FRI 06Z 01-JAN -2.7 3.0 1023 62 11 0.00 563 545 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -2.3 2.8 1019 62 70 0.01 560 545 FRI 18Z 01-JAN -2.1 0.0 1016 73 99 0.17 556 543 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -2.9 -0.7 1018 78 90 0.23 556 542 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -6.9 0.5 1021 80 55 0.00 559 542 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 ORD- ( can only go out 90 hours) ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: ORD LAT= 41.98 LON= -87.90 ELE= 673 18Z DEC30 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 18Z 30-DEC -0.5 -4.1 1013 81 22 549 538 THU 00Z 31-DEC -2.5 -7.7 1017 80 11 545 531 THU 06Z 31-DEC -4.2 -5.5 1021 76 17 0.00 546 529 THU 12Z 31-DEC -9.6 -5.4 1026 85 5 0.00 550 530 THU 18Z 31-DEC -3.1 -4.1 1028 63 9 0.00 555 533 FRI 00Z 01-JAN -4.3 -1.4 1029 68 35 0.00 563 540 FRI 06Z 01-JAN -5.2 -0.4 1029 82 11 0.00 566 543 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -3.6 2.3 1027 85 19 0.00 565 544 FRI 18Z 01-JAN 0.1 3.9 1019 77 98 0.00 562 546 SAT 00Z 02-JAN 0.5 0.7 1013 91 74 0.24 557 546 SAT 06Z 02-JAN 0.6 -1.1 1013 94 83 0.12 552 542 SAT 12Z 02-JAN -0.2 0.3 1017 92 32 0.02 558 545 SAT 18Z 02-JAN 2.2 1.5 1018 82 38 0.00 558 544 SUN 00Z 03-JAN 0.3 -0.2 1016 94 71 0.04 555 543 SUN 06Z 03-JAN 0.5 -4.6 1013 99 94 0.08 548 538 SUN 12Z 03-JAN -0.1 -5.2 1010 97 93 0.17 544 536 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 GRR ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GRR LAT= 42.88 LON= -85.52 ELE= 804 18Z DEC30 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 18Z 30-DEC 2.7 -4.3 1009 96 66 548 541 THU 00Z 31-DEC -1.2 -10.2 1014 81 11 542 531 THU 06Z 31-DEC -2.7 -12.5 1018 75 27 0.00 542 528 THU 12Z 31-DEC -5.0 -6.3 1023 81 12 0.00 547 529 THU 18Z 31-DEC -0.9 -5.6 1027 65 10 0.00 551 530 FRI 00Z 01-JAN -4.0 -3.7 1030 82 10 0.00 560 536 FRI 06Z 01-JAN -9.3 -1.2 1030 94 16 0.00 565 541 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -8.7 0.7 1030 89 19 0.00 565 542 FRI 18Z 01-JAN -1.1 2.6 1023 71 47 0.00 563 545 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -1.0 2.2 1015 78 94 0.04 559 546 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -1.0 -0.5 1012 92 89 0.13 552 543 SAT 12Z 02-JAN -2.9 0.1 1016 93 22 0.07 556 544 SAT 18Z 02-JAN 1.9 1.2 1018 74 7 0.00 559 545 SUN 00Z 03-JAN -1.4 0.3 1017 89 22 0.00 558 544 SUN 06Z 03-JAN -2.0 -2.6 1015 93 85 0.00 552 540 SUN 12Z 03-JAN -0.6 -4.2 1011 96 98 0.15 544 536 RMY- ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: RMY LAT= 42.25 LON= -84.95 ELE= 942 18Z DEC30 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 18Z 30-DEC 4.3 -1.0 1010 94 64 552 544 THU 00Z 31-DEC -1.1 -6.6 1014 89 4 547 536 THU 06Z 31-DEC -2.0 -11.4 1019 75 17 0.00 545 530 THU 12Z 31-DEC -3.1 -8.2 1024 77 13 0.00 549 531 THU 18Z 31-DEC 0.0 -5.1 1027 56 6 0.00 552 531 FRI 00Z 01-JAN -3.4 -3.6 1030 76 10 0.00 561 538 FRI 06Z 01-JAN -5.4 -0.3 1030 83 14 0.00 567 543 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -5.2 2.1 1030 85 16 0.00 567 544 FRI 18Z 01-JAN 0.0 4.1 1022 64 81 0.00 564 547 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -0.8 3.1 1015 88 86 0.19 560 548 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -0.4 2.0 1010 94 98 0.25 551 544 SAT 12Z 02-JAN -1.0 -0.4 1015 95 49 0.26 558 545 SAT 18Z 02-JAN 2.4 1.1 1018 78 17 0.00 560 546 SUN 00Z 03-JAN -0.1 0.4 1017 92 43 0.00 559 545 SUN 06Z 03-JAN 0.4 -3.6 1014 96 79 0.00 552 541 SUN 12Z 03-JAN 0.5 -4.4 1011 98 96 0.14 544 536 MTC (Niko correct?) ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MTC LAT= 42.60 LON= -82.83 ELE= 581 18Z DEC30 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 18Z 30-DEC 5.4 1.4 1009 92 65 554 546 THU 00Z 31-DEC 2.0 -3.0 1011 88 60 549 540 THU 06Z 31-DEC -0.8 -11.3 1017 73 19 0.00 545 531 THU 12Z 31-DEC -3.6 -8.3 1023 73 24 0.00 548 530 THU 18Z 31-DEC 0.1 -6.7 1026 54 7 0.00 551 530 FRI 00Z 01-JAN -1.9 -4.6 1030 66 8 0.00 558 535 FRI 06Z 01-JAN -4.1 -1.5 1031 83 15 0.00 566 541 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -4.0 0.7 1031 88 15 0.00 567 543 FRI 18Z 01-JAN 0.9 2.9 1025 63 29 0.00 565 546 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -0.3 2.3 1017 86 97 0.15 561 548 SAT 06Z 02-JAN 0.6 3.9 1009 93 99 0.13 555 548 SAT 12Z 02-JAN 0.3 0.0 1012 95 67 0.50 555 545 SAT 18Z 02-JAN 2.5 1.2 1017 83 6 0.00 560 546 SUN 00Z 03-JAN -2.1 0.9 1018 94 11 0.00 561 546 SUN 06Z 03-JAN -0.4 -0.7 1016 94 54 0.00 556 544 SUN 12Z 03-JAN 0.5 -3.2 1011 99 98 0.11 547 538 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 0z NAM and ICON 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 This is a La Niña? Holy hell. The South has gotten so much snow this season. 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 0z CMC and GFS very similar 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 @Clinton...Congrats, I am assuming this is your headline...... Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 352 PM CST Wed Dec 30 2020 KSZ025-057-060-103>105-MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046- 053-054-310600- /O.CON.KEAX.WS.A.0004.210101T0300Z-210102T0000Z/ Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell- Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee, Lenexa, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, Milan, Green City, Kirksville, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Brookfield, Marceline, Macon, La Plata, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Salisbury, Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, New Franklin, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, Warrensburg, Sedalia, Boonville, Butler, Adrian, Rich Hill, Clinton, and Windsor 352 PM CST Wed Dec 30 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one to as much as four tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes on Friday. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Not referring to present system... Just though this phenomenon is very interesting and will impact North American weather in 7 days. Will computer models be able to assimilate for this extreme analogy ? https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/pacific-record-breaking-extratropical-storm-mk/ Embedded content: https://players.brightcove.net/1942203455001/B1CSR9sVf_default/index.html?videoId=6219300818001 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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