Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Let us pin that at the top then! iFred? Let us all see if your words hold any water. Not just Jim's words. Mine too, and a few others as well. I've been saying the same thing and have posted GEFS runs showing retrogression with timing moving ahead. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I actually thought it would be raining up there. It's an absolute torch east of the mountains this evening. Apparently the cooler air aloft is already moving in. Been 32 degrees at the Pass since just after Noon today. They probably get more 31-33 degree snow than just about anywhere else in the world. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Not just Jim's words. Mine too, and a few others as well. I've been saying the same thing and have posted GEFS runs showing retrogression with timing moving ahead. I know, but right now you guys are saying January 15th to 20th? I have that correct? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: C’mon, man. It’s an hour 384 model run. When have those ever let us down? Never, a seem to remember a couple 24-36's that have pulled the rug, pad, and even the subfloor out though, :). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I went to the humane society and told all the dogs about the 18z. Sorry guys. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not really. Mid January is the time that has been advertised for a bit now. People forget about the SSW and the fact we are in a favorable base state for the mid and late winter to rock this time. I'm willing to put some stock in the Jan 15 to 20 time frame being the big pattern change. Not sure how anyone posting here could have. 1 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: No thanks! Ouch This looks like a lot of people got caught off guard with the heavy snow in the passes as they return from the holidays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: This looks like a lot of people got caught off guard with the heavy snow in the passes as they return from the holidays. Classic PNW drivers, love it!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: I went to the humane society and told all the dogs about the 18z. Sorry guys. https://tenor.com/view/dumb-dumber-carrey-done-gif-5713433 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Not sure how anyone posting here could have. SSW what’s that? 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: This looks like a lot of people got caught off guard with the heavy snow in the passes as they return from the holidays. I’ve been in those jams before returning from Leavenworth. Not fun at all especially when nature calls. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: SSW what’s that? Super snowy winter 1 1 3 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Super snowy winter Some Serious Wishcasting 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: I know, but right now you guys are saying January 15th to 20th? I have that correct? That's a pretty good time frame. Retrogression begins at around Day 10-12, possibly, but not likely to commence as early as Day 9. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 53 minutes ago, Cloud said: Wind is gonna peak soon then quickly subsides as the cold front moves thru. Heavy rain next couple hours. Not all that hard to spot the cold front on the radar! Temps behind the front should tell a lot on whether EPSL see anything. Anybody have the map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: That's a pretty good time frame. Retrogression begins at around Day 10-12, possibly, but not likely to commence as early as Day 9. Ok, I will remember if it keeps getting pushed out. Don't want to be sitting here on January 20th and you guys are saying 2 weeks again....lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Temp at 43 with moderate rain. Up to .53” now. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: SSW what’s that? One size short of a ssbbw. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Ok, I will remember if it keeps getting pushed out. Don't want to be sitting here on January 20th and you guys are saying 2 weeks again....lol. You and me both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Temp at 43 with moderate rain. Up to .53” now. Amazing how you went from just 0.07” for the day being in the shadow to over half an inch now in just a few hours. What a rainmaker! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Both directions of I-90 are closed and so is US2. Wow, I hope those that got stuck can reach their destinations safely. This does not look fun at all. D**n. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 23 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: I’ve been in those jams before returning from Leavenworth. Not fun at all especially when nature calls. Highway 2 can be the worst. A 30-mile-long back-up caused by the traffic lights in Monroe. 3 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 No action on the models yet. Hopefully soon. The long-range stuff is useless wishcasting. Always 2+ weeks out. It’s not happening again here for a very long time. I lived through 1996-2003. We should be used to disappointment. It’ll be ok. Seahawks should have a good January tho. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 The comments have been priceless! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: No action on the models yet. Hopefully soon. The long-range stuff is useless wishcasting. Always 2+ weeks out. It’s not happening again here for a very long time. I lived through 1996-2003. We should be used to disappointment. It’ll be ok. Seahawks should have a good January tho. Phebruary 25, 2019 phucked you for a long time to come. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: The comments have been priceless! This turn out to be a wicked storm for the mountain passes. More closures at Cle Elum and North Bend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 North America view (Past 4 runs) North Pacific view 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Day 2 North Pacific view (Past 4 runs) North America view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Day 3 North America view (Past 4 runs) North Pacific view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, AbbyJr said: -ENSO/+QBO/SSW. Have we actually had that combo before in the past? 1988/89 and 2008/09 are the two most recent examples. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3.38" of rain here so far today, already 4.88" MTD. 1 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 hours ago, BLI snowman said: It wasn't an ideal setup for an inversion to develop, especially being later in the season with enough dry air advection to keep things solidly mixed for the most part. It really wasn't that short lived of a cold period at all, though. This was the initial push of cold from the NW on 1/31 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0131.php And then over a week later, 850mb temps were still well below average with the antecedent airmass still largely in place http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0208.php And the next four weeks stayed cold with the PV hanging out close, there was a backdoor/Fraser River event at mid month http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0216.php And then of course the big event at the start of March, the last really major March event for Portland and Seattle http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php Most of the snow here that season came with that little mid February shot. It’s actually one of my earliest weather memories. I don’t remember the cold dry blast we had early in the month but I do remember the big mid month snowstorm. Close to 18” here with that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Looks like the cold front just moved through here. Had a period of very heavy rain, wind switched from 30+ mph South to North and temp dropped from 47 to 45. 2 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Phebruary 25, 2019 phucked you for a long time to come. Don’t think so. Any of us could get 13” at some point. what none of us will ever touch west of I-5 is the 10 below zero. No one will touch it, not ever in our lifetimes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Highway 2 can be the worst. A 30-mile-long back-up caused by the traffic lights in Monroe. One year we took highway 2 back and almost got to the summit before we learned a accident had shut it down. So back we went to Blewett Pass on over to 90. Glad I’m not part of tonight festivities up there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Day 4 North Pacific view (Past 4 runs) North America view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Day 5 North America view (Past 4 runs) North Pacific view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I sense a day-15 “rug-pull” 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: One year we took highway 2 back and almost got to the summit before we learned a accident had shut it down. So back we went to Blewett Pass on over to 90. Glad I’m not part of tonight festivities up there! Back in 2003 a few of us took a snowboarding trip to stevens to celebrate our HS senior year and on the way back, our SUV was stuck going down US2 with no phone services. It was late at night also. Luckily a nice couple was kind enough to take us down to where we can get help. we still talk about that trip to this day every time we see each each other. US2 can be quite rough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Day 6 North Pacific view (Past 4 runs) North America view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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