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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

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35F and mostly clear.

  • Sad 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

From 31 to 36 here in the last two hours. 

I'm up to 32 now.  Not often you get to say "up to 32" around here is it?

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Some potential in the long range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

What makes u say that? :rolleyes:

Kold Aire goes EASt. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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39 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Up to 33˚F. Starting to get the feeling this may bust here. About half the models are saying cold rain at this point anyhow.

I have a feeling it's gonna take a drive to north lake Samish for us to see anything around here. I hope I'm wrong though. 

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500h_anom.na.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

gfs_T850a_nwus_65.png

Seeing how the current pattern pushes the block too far west, we want this to be as close to us as possible in this time frame anyway! ;) 😂

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38 minutes ago, Phil said:

Surface temps don’t dictate p-type y’all.

Calculate your wet bulb temp and pull up a sounding.

There is a observation 10 miles west of me and 2300ft on the outer edge of the Olympics that I use to get a idea of air mass and it is very accurate.  It's 30 degrees there and I've never not had snow here when that observation was 32 or lower.  We'll see what happens tonight but I do expect to start at a mix and transition to snow.

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  • Snow 1

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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The GFS and parallel are both gung ho on a major reset of the block in early February.  This is undoubtedly in response to the big West Pacific MJO wave.  Right now it looks below normal for the entire next two weeks with good prospects for much below normal beginning somewhere in the 10 to 15 day period.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Euro time! Who's pumped for a really good run!

I like the way things are trending right now.  The GFS is really liking the idea of some pretty legit cold around day 10 in addition to the moderate cold up until then.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS and parallel are both gung ho on a major reset of the block in early February.  This is undoubtedly in response to the big West Pacific MJO wave.  Right now it looks below normal for the entire next two weeks with good prospects for much below normal beginning somewhere in the 10 to 15 day period.

Oh we finally have tropical forcing on our side? That could be the missing piece. Here we go!!!!

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I like the way things are trending right now.  The GFS is really liking the idea of some pretty legit cold around day 10 in addition to the moderate cold up until then.

Sure not seeing that on the ensembles but sounds good to me.

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One thing I certainly like about tonight's GFS run is it shows the surface low tracking inland over SW WA tomorrow instead of NW WA or SW BC.  It shows very limited moisture though.

Certainly a bunch of snow chances in the coming week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Oh we finally have tropical forcing on our side? That could be the missing piece. Here we go!!!!

We sure do.  The models had been advertising a favorable MJO wave to emerge at the very end of the month, but it emerged much sooner than had been expected.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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54 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

gfs_T850a_nwus_65.png

Very misleading.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Acer said:

Sure not seeing that on the ensembles but sounds good to me.

The 18z and 0z showed some Canadian cold air arriving at day 10 on both the regular and parallel GFS models.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I certainly like about tonight's GFS run is it shows the surface low tracking inland over SW WA tomorrow instead of NW WA or SW BC.  It shows very limited moisture though.

Certainly a bunch of snow chances in the coming week.

GFS showed chances for Tues/Wed then again for Thur/Fri. Certainly some chances coming up. I'll be happy to see some flakes flying even if accumulations are limited. 

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

In that case, winter cancel.

Well it sucks until the very end. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I’m going to nuke NC if they steal another snowstorm from me. Would rather suffer thru warm rain than get missed to the south. 

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