Phil Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Bryant gets snowed on. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'm not buying that solution. Just doesn't make sense. https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Shift north please... Thank you 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 The 18z Euro speaks of Dec 1996 to me. The low level cold air will makes it way through gorge but not enough cooling aloft for snow Columbia River S. Would be ice event for PDX, with limited QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Bryant said: Shift north please... Thank you I’m sure wether it shifts north or not you’ll get snow. Lots of times like discussed earlier models underdo precip on the northern ends of these systems. Either way eventually it’s gonna snow up north. 3 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 This run suggests a huge event for Seattle. That PV lobe out over the ocean just to the north. Could be amazing, I still have to think the ECMWF will move toward the coldness of the GFS a little bit. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Bryant gets snowed on. You might be thinking of my old location lol. I'm a bit further north now. I'm not making any friends on here with my hopes of it shifting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 A low interacting with an arctic front moving south, surprises await. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Still wouldn’t rule out snow for PDX just yet. Could end up coming in a little south. Good run for everyone in WA though. It is actually a pretty darn good track for PDX. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Tim gets a lot of precip. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Snowdrift said: A low interacting with an arctic front moving south, surprises await. This. Lots of little features are going to evolve out of a pattern like this. Lots of local overperformances/underperformances. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 This formation looked a little haunting 7 1 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bryant said: You might be thinking of my old location lol. I'm a bit further north now. I'm not making any friends on here with my hopes of it shifting You still get snowed on. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Obviously still quite a bit to resolve with models. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 If the 00z runs are all good, might be time to put up the WWA/WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Omegaraptor said: If the 00z runs are all good, might be time to put up the WWA/WSW? If the Euro trends colder with the GFS, I would say WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Omegaraptor said: If the 00z runs are all good, might be time to put up the WWA/WSW? We don’t need the NWS jinxing us right now! Let them wait until the snows actually falling. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew M Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Massive difference in low placement between the GFS and EURO, who caves to who? OR/WA border verse northern Cali. I predict one or the other makes a massive move between tonight and tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, Snowdrift said: A low interacting with an arctic front moving south, surprises await. Yep. The battleground between those air masses can bring much more moisture than modeled. The Arctic front sometimes stalls out which brings convergence and heavy snow along the boundary. February 23, 2014 around Bellingham, February 2019 for all of Puget Sound, and January 2020 North of Seattle are all examples of that. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Confidence in some great winter weather is really building now. It’s been 2 years since anything legit here in the south sound. 7 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: If the 00z runs are all good, might be time to put up the WWA/WSW? Still a good 3-4 models runs away at this point. Check back in this time tomorrow and maybe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 That warm nose Thursday afternoon is gonna be somewhat close to PDX on really all models, at least initially. Some models cool way down right after though. The 12z ECMWF and the 18z GFS at least in terms of 850mb temps, both kept PDX at 0c or below but the 18z ECMWF is maybe +1c or +2c initially. Hopefully the 00z ECMWF will be less ugly there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 If anyone is familiar with January 1998 (because I’m not)— could this be a similar scenario? "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Requiem said: If anyone is familiar with January 1998 (because I’m not)— could this be a similar scenario? Yes. I lived in SW Portland near Gabriel Park then. It was cold rain when it started then turned to freezing rain, did not change to snow until the following morning, just a big ugly mess. Meanwhile, just on the other side of the west hills , not more than 2-3 miles away as crow flies, it was snowing downtown PDX. Clark County did really well. I think they got 6-10”. Fascinating and frustrating at the same time. At least it is now not an El Niño 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 just hit 32 4 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Requiem said: If anyone is familiar with January 1998 (because I’m not)— could this be a similar scenario? It is indeed pretty similar, at least with the outset of that event. Very different progression is likely afterwards as the cold air stays closer, but in 1998's case the subfreezing 850mb temps also aligned on a NE angle as the main low tracked to our south. The Portland metro had a major difference in precip type on the 10th and 11th. I had close to 15" of snow living just NW of Vancouver and didn't switch over to freezing rain until the next day. PDX got about 7" of snow with some freezing rain mixing in. Downtown Portland had 4-5" with a lot of ice. Hillsboro had maybe 2" with an inch of ice. Tigard-south was all freezing rain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 i hate waiting for next model run. someone could make a fortune making a weather model that comes out at 3, 9, ,15, and 21z. Even if its dog poop . Cant be any worse than some of the "professional" models. Honestly just throw some random number generators in there or some extrapolation algorithms and voila! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: just hit 32 Nice to see the event is starting already. Most places up around Bellingham are 30-32 degrees with NE winds. Going to get colder and colder over the upcoming week! 42 here down south...but the DP is 26 DPs been dropping all day. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Anybody got the 18z totals for Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z EPS coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: 18z EPS coming out now Hopefully it’s as snowy as the 12z! Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: i hate waiting for next model run. someone could make a fortune making a weather model that comes out at 3, 9, ,15, and 21z. Even if its dog poop . Cant be any worse than some of the "professional" models. Honestly just throw some random number generators in there or some extrapolation algorithms and voila! Wait for the HRRR to come into range and you’ll essentially have that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: i hate waiting for next model run. someone could make a fortune making a weather model that comes out at 3, 9, ,15, and 21z. Even if its dog poop . Cant be any worse than some of the "professional" models. Honestly just throw some random number generators in there or some extrapolation algorithms and voila! I bet Dominion Software could help with that. I am sure around 3 or 4 am it would spit out some crazy numbers. Could be quite a ride depending on if your a "Blue" cold fan or a "Red" warmth fan... Good times! 1 3 1 My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, wxmet said: Wait for the HRRR to come into range and you’ll essentially have that Is that 24 hours? At that point i honestly stop watching models and just start watching radar (and DOT cams, obvi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, luvssnow_seattle said: I bet Dominion Software could help with that. I am sure around 3 or 4 am it would spit out some crazy numbers. Could be quite a ride depending on if your a "Blue" cold fan or a "Red" warmth fan... Good times! Your lawsuit is in the mail 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Which one do we want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z Euro text data for PDX from Mark. It takes until 8 PM Thursday for the surface to cool to freezing. The 850s are 0.4c to 0.7c and eventually start cooling and the snow then starts to potentially accumulate. Here is the 18z IBM GRAF model It is a bit faster but temps are down to 32F in PDX with precip by 10 AM Thursday. Doesn't go out far enough to see what happens next and this chart doesn't show 850mb temps. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Snow total through Saturday early AM...looks about the same maybe less in the mountains? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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