February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Control is juussstttt a bit of an outlier

Could anyone please post the relevant ensembles for Bellingham? Thanks.

Temp 30˚F, DP 20˚F.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah it’s interesting. You can actually track the deposition of momentum and both intraseasonal GWO/MJO cycles back to the inception of the SSW. These things have cascading impacts for months after they occur.

Without the SSW I suspect we’d have repeated 1999/00 or maybe 2007/08 at best.

QBO doesn't matter now?

[Perturbed Member]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Good to see the IBM GRAF model already has PDX at freezing on Thursday morning. Also nice it's showing strong East winds already at that time. It's suppose to be the world's highest-resolution weather model.

Yeah GRAF looks impressive on paper. A global model that runs at an average resolution of 3km. Runs every hour too instead of every 6-12 hours. No idea how good its actual performance is. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Could anyone please post the relevant ensembles for Bellingham? Thanks.

Temp 30˚F, DP 20˚F.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Requiem said:

I think it’s worth noting that the foothills look to get blasted with strong offshore wind starting Thursday. Wonder if that’ll be an issue.

Columbia River Gorge is going to be one gorgeous wintery wonderland soon!!! Photographer Paradise.....Tyler going to have a Hot (I mean Cold!) date soon!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Snow total through Saturday early AM...looks about the same maybe less in the mountains?

Something for everyone from PDX to YVR if it verifies. Pretty darn good.

[MossMan]

33.

DP 31. 

[bainbridgekid]

00z National Blend of Models through Saturday morning:

 

[seattleweatherguy]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Arctic front/CZ signature within HRRR range now. Given that it parks directly over my house, I'm totally partial to this solution and am thereby locking it in. Officially.

Perfect spot for me too!

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Bryant said:

You might be thinking of my old location lol. I'm a bit further north now.

I'm not making any friends on here with my hopes of it shifting

Lol, once Rusty is out of the box we yell for our dog to cross the finish line. Nothing wrong with that!  “ Here Comes Rusty!!!”   
Miss those days 

[The Swamp]

28 minutes ago, iFred said:

If anyone got a random invite to a weather forum by someone named Ben, let me know. Seems like he might be behind some of the schinananagans from earlier. Poor guy is just having a bad day and taking it out on us.

This whole situation Fred seems like a good way to manage Tim in the lead up to a potentially historic snow event.  You say there are some denial of service problems and issues going on behind the scenes when really you are just screwing with Tim and his 41 degree rain maps at day 12.  Am I wrong?

[paulb/eugene]

Looking at surface pressure plots and temps the 00z NAM looks a bit colder, may trend S with the first low

[OysterPrintout]

20 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Ahh I'm nervous, I'm sure PDX- north will at least get some fun but it's sorta nerve wracking haha

YOU DONT SOUND SO SURE BUDDY 

[TacomaWaWx]

23 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Sometimes I wonder, is the model riding more fun than the event itself? This is a blast! 

The model riding part is simultaneously stressful and fun. This has been one of the more wild rides...was pretty massive uncertainty and swings on the models until 2 days ago. Now that we’re really close to getting something good it’s a lot more fun...as we’ve got lots of cards stacked in our favor especially here in western WA. Nothing beats snow actually falling and the runs verifying though. 

[TacomaWaWx]

One interesting thing...still early in February but a good shot that this ends up being the 3rd year in a row February was the coldest month of the winter. Really happy seeing the cold air spilling into the Fraser River valley and Bellingham right now. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

I forgot, Requiem is that kid in the West Hills???  What did his name used to be?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm expecting the euro to cave a bit towards the gfs. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Nice improvement on the NAM. This gif is from 1AM-6PM Wednesday. 

Wednesday evening looks nice for the Central Sound.

I know better than to look at the blue blobs on the hour 60 NAM, but if that scenario were to transpire I would claw my eyes out. Literally five miles to my south.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I forgot, Requiem is that kid in the West Hills???  What did his name used to be?

I think Requiem is a her (unless I’m confused) and I don’t remember the previous user name. Well that’s gonna bug me now....

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Modified arctic front looking a fair amount juicier. Love seeing this as we move closer.

 

Wow almost 4 inches here. Would be great if this verified

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nice improvement on the NAM. This gif is from 1AM-6PM Wednesday. 

Wednesday evening looks nice for the Central Sound.

That heavy band is right over me! 

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I forgot, Requiem is that kid in the West Hills???  What did his name used to be?

I think it was KI2 or something like that, been a little bit.

[bainbridgekid]

NAM actually looks even more suppressed than the 18z.

 

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I know better than to look at the blue blobs on the hour 60 NAM, but if that scenario were to transpire I would claw my eyes out. Literally five miles to my south.

I’m keeping my eyes locked on my location and none of girthier bands ever parked over me!

[jakerepp]

Just now, Requiem said:

I think it was KI2 or something like that, been a little bit.

That sounds familiar.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

So, 90% have an inch or more in the coming week, mean 6.3", median 5.1". Odds strongly disfavor Whatcom County getting completely skunked.

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I think Requiem is a her (unless I’m confused) and I don’t remember the previous user name. Well that’s gonna bug me now....

K12 and I’m pretty sure he’s a he.

[The Swamp]

these arctic fronts sometimes can lay down 1"-2" when the models don't really see it

they have a way of squeezing all the moisture out of the atmosphere and putting it in your yard frozen style

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I think it was KI2 or something like that, been a little bit.

You don't even remember your old username? haha 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You don't even remember your old username? haha 

One might say that I’ve subconsciously blocked out some of my more embarrassing posting habits 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You don't even remember your old username? haha 

That is exactly what it was........I believe it's a "he", and he would be around 21 now?

[Kolk1604]

Friday Morning

[jakerepp]

Found on Twitter, from Burnsville, MN tonight, where it’s -6 f.

[Jesse]

Just now, Requiem said:

One might say that I’ve subconsciously blocked out some of my more embarrassing posting habits 

Sorry if I came down on you a little hard earlier. I’ve always liked you. I think it would serve you well to gain a little confidence to post your own thoughts though. I’m sure you have the knowledge!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

One might say that I’ve subconsciously blocked out some of my more embarrassing posting habits 

You have less to be embarrassed about than some of the chronologically more mature adults here.

[Slushy Inch]

The stronger arctic front is a step towards the Euro and will suck the low pressure north in feature runs.

[Perturbed Member]

I don't trust the NAM at all at this range but what the heck.

 

Still snowing at the end

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

One might say that I’ve subconsciously blocked out some of my more embarrassing posting habits 

Your postings have always been fine. You shouldn't take some of the criticism you had to heart... it was a lot more constructive than you may think. 

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

One might say that I’ve subconsciously blocked out some of my more embarrassing posting habits 

Hey man, I'm still trying to get rid of some of mine as well. I'm far from the most mature person on the forum and I do often show it in my posts, but my genuine interest in weather makes me continue posting frequently.

[SalemDuck]

NAM has a Coos Bay landfall