February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[RentonHill]

Saturday system...who knows

[luvssnow_spokane]

Had a high of 35 today and currently down below freezing 31... MY coldest days are the best yet to come. I will not have a high above freezing for at least a week or longer. WEEEEEeeeee!!

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Someone outside of the Cascades gets 20" by Saturday.  

[MossMan]

Currently 34 after a high of 40.

DP 31. 

[RentonHill]

Full run compared to 12z. Not big differences. Maybe wider precip shield? 

[snow_wizard]

OMG on the 18z EPS.  Totally unreal!

At hour 144 850s are back down to -6 with surface temps still freezing.  Tons of snow too.

[snow_wizard]

The big question is which model is going to cave or will they meet in the middle.  Both seem very sure of themselves.

[jakerepp]

Glad I bought an AWD car last month, looks like I’ll get to put it to use!

[Prairiedog]

38 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

That warm nose Thursday afternoon is gonna be somewhat close to PDX on really all models, at least initially. Some models cool way down right after though. The 12z ECMWF and the 18z GFS at least in terms of 850mb temps, both kept PDX at 0c or below but the 18z ECMWF is maybe +1c or +2c initially. Hopefully the 00z ECMWF will be less ugly there.  

 

 

 

Warm nose will especially show up along the foothills somewhere from around Silverton north towards Estacada including OC (east side).  Once that moisture starts streaming towards PDX I'll see rain near Estacada.  Classic setup.  I might start as snow but it will be a quick painful switch.  Might even start as rain.  Immediate Metro will do ok as the cold air will be thicker.  Doesn't work here very well.  If we had gap winds, that's different. 

[snow_wizard]

My wish would be a 75% ECMWF / 25% GFS mix.  That would be epic for many of us.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

My wish would be a 75% ECMWF / 25% GFS mix.  That would be epic for many of us.

Yup would love to see all the snow with colder temps. 

[Winterdog]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 34 after a high of 40.

DP 31. 

36 here after a high of 39, DP 35

[snow_wizard]

NWS is going pretty wild with their forecast now.

[Perturbed Member]

SEA NWS not holding back

[umadbro]

Just got a special weather statement. Portland NWS just doesn't know what to say. It may rain or it might snow or it might be somewhere in between

[MossMan]

MASSIVE  evening models coming up...Just MASSIVE!!! 

[snow_wizard]

I don't see any way the ECMWF will be right about some places having rain on Wednesday.  Fraser River air is already filtering southward from Whatcom County.

[Christensen87]

Evening models will bring huge snow totals. Prepare now. 

[mtep]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

MASSIVE  evening models coming up...Just MASSIVE!!! 

[snow drift]

It's going to be fun to track this event. Things will change up until the very end. It just has that feel to it. I want to see Jim Cantore and Mike Seidel in Portland and Seattle in no particular order.

[bainbridgekid]

Seattle AFD.

Temps will cool through Thursday as colder Canadian air sinks south across Washington. Naturally the coldest windiest area will be up in Whatcom county where it should stay below freezing for at least a couple days--and most areas north of Seattle should freeze hard, The forecast low temperature around daybreak Thursday should range from the upper teens in the north (feeling colder than that with wind chill below zero in the Bellingham area) to temps in the lower 30s on the south coast. With cold air in place, and certainly much lower dew points by Thursday, the trick will be to bring moisture back into the area. Some solutions favor taking most of the moisture into Oregon while others look more wintry--personally, I like the look of the Canadian model which simulates a nice front developing over northwest Oregon (parallel to the thickness gradient) during the day Thursday--with precip spreading north Thursday afternoon and night. If that scenario works out, you end up with heavier wetter snow over southwest Washington tapering down to just a little fluff blown away by the wind up in Bellingham. 19

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Friday could be postfrontal with snow showers tapering off behind the front. Naturally the forecast doesn`t have that level of detail and the range of model solutions just gives us a chance of snow forecast. But if you had to bet, maybe a break Friday afternoon and night followed by another frontal system Saturday. Temps should moderate over the weekend into early next week but you can certainly cherry pick solutions that are still rather wintry--the UW wrfgfs has snow next Monday and many of the ECMWF ensemble solutions favor Western Washington with wintry weather into early next week.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

MASSIVE  evening models coming up...Just MASSIVE!!! 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't see any way the ECMWF will be right about some places having rain on Wednesday.  Fraser River air is already filtering southward from Whatcom County.

But would you bet against it? I wouldn't. 

[RentonHill]

Control is juussstttt a bit of an outlier

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

NAM time!!

[Gummy]

What resolution is the Euro control vs the ensembles?

 

[Requiem]

NAM is much more robust with the C-Zone for Tuesday/Wednesday.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Its out to hour 3 now... its really bad.   Winter cancel! 

Titanic sunk in 3 hours!

Skipper and Gilligan went on a 3 hour tour! 
 

NOT FUNNY!

 

[bainbridgekid]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Control is juussstttt a bit of an outlier

84% (42/50) show at least 3"

60% (30/50) show at least 7"

44% (22/50) show at least 9"

12% (6/50) show at least 12"

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

If anyone got a random invite to a weather forum by someone named Ben, let me know. Seems like he might be behind some of the schinananagans from earlier. Poor guy is just having a bad day and taking it out on us.

Ben Noll? 

[Hawksfan2008]

Sometimes I wonder, is the model riding more fun than the event itself? This is a blast! 

[Meatyorologist]

Arctic front/CZ signature within HRRR range now. Given that it parks directly over my house, I'm totally partial to this solution and am thereby locking it in. Officially.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Sometimes I wonder, is the model riding more fun than the event itself? This is a blast! 

2016/17 was a blast even though we never got that much snow up here, there was something to track pretty much that entire winter! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

48 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

18z Euro text data for PDX from Mark. It takes until 8 PM Thursday for the surface to cool to freezing. The 850s are 0.4c to 0.7c and eventually start cooling and the snow then starts to potentially accumulate. 

 

Here is the 18z IBM GRAF model 

It is a bit faster but temps are down to 32F in PDX with precip by 10 AM Thursday. Doesn't go out far enough to see what happens next and this chart doesn't show 850mb temps. 

 

Good to see the IBM GRAF model already has PDX at freezing on Thursday morning. Also nice it's showing strong East winds already at that time. It's suppose to be the world's highest-resolution weather model.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Sometimes I wonder, is the model riding more fun than the event itself? This is a blast! 

Nope, but it's close. I kind of include the two as individual parts of the same event, so that the model riding and the snowfall are part of the whole "snow event."

[Requiem]

Ahh I'm nervous, I'm sure PDX- north will at least get some fun but it's sorta nerve wracking haha

[Jesse]

13 minutes ago, iFred said:

If anyone got a random invite to a weather forum by someone named Ben, let me know. Seems like he might be behind some of the schinananagans from earlier. Poor guy is just having a bad day and taking it out on us.

I got some pretty weird PMs earlier about how Yuma Arizona has the best weather the the country and I have mental and emotional problems for liking any temperatures under 60 degrees. I ignored it but I think it was that guy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Jesse said:

I got some pretty weird PMs earlier about how Yuma Arizona has the best weather the the country and I have mental and emotional problems for liking temperatures under 60 degrees. I ignored it but I think it was that guy.

Tim?

[Fircrest]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Sometimes I wonder, is the model riding more fun than the event itself? This is a blast! 

Probably at least half the fun for me.  I'm that way with vacations also, I love planning them . This forum is addictive. I want to keep checking all the time, not good for productivity.