February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Phil]

Bryant gets snowed on.

[umadbro]

I'm not buying that solution. Just doesn't make sense.

[Bryant]

Shift north please... Thank you

[paulb/eugene]

The 18z Euro speaks of Dec 1996 to me.  The low level cold air will makes it way through gorge but not enough cooling aloft for snow Columbia River S.  Would be ice event for PDX, with limited QPF. 
 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Bryant said:

Shift north please... Thank you

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m sure wether it shifts north or not you’ll get snow. Lots of times like discussed earlier models underdo precip on the northern ends of these systems. Either way eventually it’s gonna snow up north. 

[snow_wizard]

This run suggests a huge event for Seattle.  That PV lobe out over the ocean just to the north.  Could be amazing,  I still have to think the ECMWF will move toward the coldness of the GFS a little bit.

[Bryant]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Bryant gets snowed on.

You might be thinking of my old location lol. I'm a bit further north now.

I'm not making any friends on here with my hopes of it shifting

[snow drift]

A low interacting with an arctic front moving south, surprises await. 

[Perturbed Member]

 

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Still wouldn’t rule out snow for PDX just yet. Could end up coming in a little south. Good run for everyone in WA though. 

It is actually a pretty darn good track for PDX. 

[Phil]

Tim gets a lot of precip.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Snowdrift said:

A low interacting with an arctic front moving south, surprises await. 

This. Lots of little features are going to evolve out of a pattern like this. Lots of local overperformances/underperformances.

[jakerepp]

This formation looked a little haunting 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Bryant said:

You might be thinking of my old location lol. I'm a bit further north now.

I'm not making any friends on here with my hopes of it shifting

You still get snowed on.  

[Requiem]

Obviously still quite a bit to resolve with models.

[Omegaraptor]

If the 00z runs are all good, might be time to put up the WWA/WSW?

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

If the 00z runs are all good, might be time to put up the WWA/WSW?

If the Euro trends colder with the GFS, I would say WSW

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

If the 00z runs are all good, might be time to put up the WWA/WSW?

We don’t need the NWS jinxing us right now! Let them wait until the snows actually falling. 

[Andrew M]

Massive difference in low placement between the GFS and EURO, who caves to who? OR/WA border verse northern Cali. I predict one or the other makes a massive move between tonight and tomorrow morning.

[bainbridgekid]

30 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

A low interacting with an arctic front moving south, surprises await. 

Yep. The battleground between those air masses can bring much more moisture than modeled. The Arctic front sometimes stalls out which brings convergence and heavy snow along the boundary.

February 23, 2014 around Bellingham, February 2019 for all of Puget Sound, and January 2020 North of Seattle are all examples of that.

[TacomaWaWx]

Confidence in some great winter weather is really building now. It’s been 2 years since anything legit here in the south sound. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If the 00z runs are all good, might be time to put up the WWA/WSW?

Still a good 3-4 models runs away at this point. Check back in this time tomorrow and maybe.

[Perturbed Member]

That warm nose Thursday afternoon is gonna be somewhat close to PDX on really all models, at least initially. Some models cool way down right after though. The 12z ECMWF and the 18z GFS at least in terms of 850mb temps, both kept PDX at 0c or below but the 18z ECMWF is maybe +1c or +2c initially. Hopefully the 00z ECMWF will be less ugly there.  

 

 

 

[Requiem]

If anyone is familiar with January 1998 (because I’m not)— could this be a similar scenario?

[paulb/eugene]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

If anyone is familiar with January 1998 (because I’m not)— could this be a similar scenario?

Yes. I lived in SW Portland near Gabriel Park then.  It was cold rain when it started then turned to freezing rain, did not change to snow until the following morning, just a big ugly mess.  Meanwhile, just on the other side of the west hills , not more than 2-3 miles away as crow flies, it was snowing downtown PDX.  Clark County did really well.  I think they got 6-10”.   Fascinating and frustrating at the same time.

At least it is now not an El Niño

[Chewbacca Defense]

just hit 32

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

If anyone is familiar with January 1998 (because I’m not)— could this be a similar scenario?

It is indeed pretty similar, at least with the outset of that event. Very different progression is likely afterwards as the cold air stays closer, but in 1998's case the subfreezing 850mb temps also aligned on a NE angle as the main low tracked to our south.

The Portland metro had a major difference in precip type on the 10th and 11th. I had close to 15" of snow living just NW of Vancouver and didn't switch over to freezing rain until the next day. PDX got about 7" of snow with some freezing rain mixing in. Downtown Portland had 4-5" with a lot of ice. Hillsboro had maybe 2" with an inch of ice. Tigard-south was all freezing rain.

[RentonHill]

i hate waiting for next model run. someone could make a fortune making a weather model that comes out at 3, 9, ,15, and 21z. Even if its dog poop . Cant be any worse than some of the "professional" models. Honestly just throw some random number generators in there or some extrapolation algorithms and voila!

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

just hit 32

Nice to see the event is starting already. Most places up around Bellingham are 30-32 degrees with NE winds. Going to get colder and colder over the upcoming week! 42 here down south...but the DP is 26 DPs been dropping all day. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Anybody got the 18z totals for Euro?

[RentonHill]

18z EPS coming out now

[jakerepp]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

18z EPS coming out now

Hopefully it’s as snowy as the 12z! 
 

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

i hate waiting for next model run. someone could make a fortune making a weather model that comes out at 3, 9, ,15, and 21z. Even if its dog poop . Cant be any worse than some of the "professional" models. Honestly just throw some random number generators in there or some extrapolation algorithms and voila!

Wait for the HRRR to come into range and you’ll essentially have that

[luvssnow_spokane]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

i hate waiting for next model run. someone could make a fortune making a weather model that comes out at 3, 9, ,15, and 21z. Even if its dog poop . Cant be any worse than some of the "professional" models. Honestly just throw some random number generators in there or some extrapolation algorithms and voila!

I bet Dominion Software could help with that. I am sure around 3 or 4 am it would spit out some crazy numbers. Could be quite a ride depending on if your a "Blue" cold fan or a "Red" warmth fan... Good times!  

 

[RentonHill]

Just now, wxmet said:

Wait for the HRRR to come into range and you’ll essentially have that

Is that 24 hours? At that point i honestly stop watching models and just start watching radar (and DOT cams, obvi)

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

I bet Dominion Software could help with that. I am sure around 3 or 4 am it would spit out some crazy numbers. Could be quite a ride depending on if your a "Blue" cold fan or a "Red" warmth fan... Good times!  

 

Your lawsuit is in the mail

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Which one do we want?

[Perturbed Member]

18z Euro text data for PDX from Mark. It takes until 8 PM Thursday for the surface to cool to freezing. The 850s are 0.4c to 0.7c and eventually start cooling and the snow then starts to potentially accumulate. 

 

Here is the 18z IBM GRAF model 

It is a bit faster but temps are down to 32F in PDX with precip by 10 AM Thursday. Doesn't go out far enough to see what happens next and this chart doesn't show 850mb temps. 

 

[RentonHill]

Snow total through Saturday early AM...looks about the same maybe less in the mountains?