February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[paulb/eugene]

Just now, paulb/eugene said:

The low will track in direction of that orange middle finger toward Grays Harbor

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The offshore block is stronger on the 18z ECMWF.  Probably going to be a cold run.

It looks weaker to me. That pacific storm will be farther north and/or stronger this go around..which (I assume) could mean higher snowfall totals.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Confricting reports

It depends what Phil meant by a step back.  He might have mean for snow chances.  This run looks to go colder / drier.

[SalemDuck]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

The low will track in direction of that orange middle finger toward Grays Harbor

Nope it's heading just south of due east

[paulb/eugene]

I take that back.  NW Oregon clobber track

[Phil]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It depends what Phil meant by a step back.  He might have mean for snow chances.  This run looks to go colder / drier.

What are you looking at?

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, Austin Wright said:

Very interesting that out of all of the model solutions, they like the look of the Canadian. I wonder why.

 Well. it is Canadian air.  

[Deweydog]

Conflicting reports regarding the conflicting reports! It’s bedlam!!

[RentonHill]

[Requiem]

So I see the 18Z is going an eensy bit north and the GFS went an eensy bit south... I don’t envy mets that’s for sure.

[wxmet]

[SalemDuck]

Euro is just so much warmer east side than other models.

[wxmet]

Much further north with the low a frozen precip compared to 12z.

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely a bit warmer at 850mb by Thursday afternoon.

Ouch

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's a good track for NW Oregon. EURO is just WAY warmer at the surface than many of the other models. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, wxmet said:

Much further north with the low a frozen precip compared to 12z.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, wxmet said:

Much further north with the low a frozen precip compared to 12z.

Feel like it's going to keep bouncing around. Wonder where the ensembles take it 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The low positioning is perfect for a classic Eugene-north snow event. Unfortunately there is absolutely no cold air to work with. 

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Conflicting reports regarding the conflicting reports! It’s bedlam!!

Based on biased opinions based on rigged facts!

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

850s by Thursday night...

Looks similar to the RGEM 18z:

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Feel like it's going to keep bouncing around. Wonder where the ensembles take it 

The upper level low in the Pacific is tricky to forecast. My guess is data sparseness. My guess is the ensembles will look similar to 12z. Maybe a tad more north.

[TT-SEA]

Much more snowy for the Seattle area than the 12 ECMWF on Thursday.

[Winterdog]

33 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Where’s the Korean

Probably working at the 7-11.

[TT-SEA]

Sorry for the repeat posts... takes forever to load it on my phone and people post in between.    

Fred... any update on the Comcast issue?

[GobBluth]

-11 in The Dalles, offshore flow, and Portland can't get snow? 

[Slushy Inch]

By 1pm Thursday, the Seattle area has already had 14 hours of light snow! EPS is winning!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No single digit temps in W. Oregon.

[Perturbed Member]

The track looks really good for PDX and the surface temps will eventually be just fine due to the gorge. The 850s are looking rough though. 

[awright-31]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Total snow through that point vs 12z...

The question is, does this move up the timing of the system, or does this increase the overall snow totals? 

[wxmet]

Just now, nwsnow said:

The track looks really good for PDX and the surface temps will eventually be just fine due to the gorge. The 850s are looking rough though. 

Looks similar to the RGEM where things cool back down to transition to all snow.

[TacomaWaWx]

Still wouldn’t rule out snow for PDX just yet. Could end up coming in a little south. Good run for everyone in WA though. 

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No single digit temps in W. Oregon.

Only happened once or twice before moving to a snowier climate. I wouldn't have expected that truthfully.

[wxmet]

Totals early Friday morning

 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Looks similar to the RGEM where things cool back down to transition to all snow.

Yep, things are poised to cool right back down for everyone Eugene northward. If anything, probably colder than the 12z.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Low location by Friday morning looks to be right near the mouth of the Columbia...

Will it pull down more cold air from Canada?

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Still wouldn’t rule out snow for PDX just yet. Could end up coming in a little south. Good run for everyone in WA though. 

I don’t think anyone’s ruling out PDX snow with a track like that.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like I was wrong. Great run for WA to say the least.

[SalemDuck]

Tracks NE at the tail end. As Andrew said the track is great for NW Oregon but it's just too warm with not enough to work with eastside 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I don’t think anyone’s ruling out PDX snow with a track like that.

Lol I must’ve misinterpreted some comments. Still going to be close there but not looking bad currently. 

[Requiem]

I think it’s worth noting that the foothills look to get blasted with strong offshore wind starting Thursday. Wonder if that’ll be an issue.