February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty sure there were some 3K NAM maps in February 2017 that showed 18-24" totals across most of NW Oregon and SW Washington. 

That was an isothermal situation of course, where the models tend to struggle just a wee bit more. With the ratios this go around, someone could legitimately see some eye popping numbers.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Remnants of the snowman my Nephew built last Wednesday.

What’s your nephew’s take on the models???

[BLI snowman]

 

8 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

The kiss of death. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
251 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021


ORZ006-WAZ039-101400-
/O.NEW.KPQR.WS.A.0002.210211T2000Z-210212T2000Z/
Greater Portland Metro Area-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Vancouver, Battle Ground,
Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy
251 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 6
  inches possible. Occasional light freezing rain or sleet is
  possible, mainly to the west and south of Portland Thursday
  afternoon into early evening. Winds could gust as high as 45
  mph, with strongest winds east of Interstate 205 towards the
  Columbia Gorge.

* WHERE...In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area. In Oregon,
  Greater Portland Metro Area.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow-covered roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will decrease later Thursday
  night. Cold temperatures in the 20s with breezy east winds will
  create low wind chills across the region.

 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We could easily see 15 to 1 ratios with this event.  That could result is some really amazing totals.  If this pans out one might be tempted to think the weather has remembered how to snow here gain.

It's like we're going back to the late-1800's again

[rabbitbarf]

Can someone tell me exactly how much snow will accumulate in the denny triangle area of downtown seattle. Specifically on the blocks of Boren and Stewart if you can /s

[Skagit Weather]

If these models come close to verifying I hope everyone has their snowboards handy so we get some accurate measurements of snow.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure if it was already posted but the 18z ICON looked pretty nice.

I can spot a tiny hole around my area, probably due to east winds. Some models are showing that eating away at our snow, unfortunately. I'm hoping we can make up for it with some nice blowing snow due to our 40 mph E wind gusts and (hopefully) healthy precip rates on Saturday.

Don't remember the last time I experienced whiteout/blizzard-like conditions. 

I like this map...Not many I can like right now unfortunately. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, rabbitbarf said:

Can someone tell me exactly how much snow will accumulate in the denny triangle area of downtown seattle. Specifically on the blocks of Boren and Stewart if you can /s

You could get 2-20 inches. Most likely 8-10 inches!!!

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, dolt said:

WSW for the Southern Valley now for ice. I'm definitely getting that vodka today.

Ask for Oregon Springs brand

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS just embarrassed themselves with these ludicrous WSW that have no chance of verifying. They must be riding the parallel GFS. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, rabbitbarf said:

Can someone tell me exactly how much snow will accumulate in the denny triangle area of downtown seattle. Specifically on the blocks of Boren and Stewart if you can /s

Probably a couple inches with the first storm on Thursday...probably a few with the storm this weekend but still more uncertainty with that one than the Thursday storm. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Portland NWS just embarrassed themselves with these ludicrous WSW that have no chance of verifying. They must be riding the parallel GFS. 

I F^uck with Portland's energy. Seattle barely even issued one for SPS. 

[TacomaWaWx]

41/36 spread today. High temps have been getting cooler and cooler each day! Probably will improve on that low temp before midnight as well. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Reading the AFD from PDX it seems they think precip will be mostly snow except for the South Valley on Saturday. 

[paulb/eugene]

What’s great about electric cars is they can charge your iPhone hundreds of times in a power outage, assuming you charged it up to begin with

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice trough on the long range GFS. 

[Khoine]

No snow for Kitsap or Seattle sorry folks NWS knows best.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Where is TWL? Haven't seen him post in awhile.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Khoine said:

No snow for Kitsap or Seattle sorry folks NWS knows best.

I’m pretty sure most people south of Everett will get at least a little something...but probably only like trace-1” north of Seattle/Bremerton line. Seattle will probably get 1-2” is my guess. 

[seattleweatherguy]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m pretty sure most people south of Everett will get at least a little something...but probably only like trace-1” north of Seattle/Bremerton line. Seattle will probably get 1-2” is my guess. 

The maps have shown more than that. Hopefully the next runs can prove we can get some

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Fig 1.
Why people from the local NWS office don't post on our Weather Forum.

I know of one who is in one of the local Wx FB groups, he gets mocked pretty mercilessly in there. 

[MossMan]

Just heard the quickie weather report after traffic on 97.3 Kiro FM...”Spotty snow showers through the weekend that will not amount to much of anything” 

[Khoine]

This has turned into non event for Seattle area.  NWS says rain snow mix through Sunday

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

Fig 1.
Why people from the local NWS office don't post on our Weather Forum.

And his subsequent posts will undoubtedly be ones where he pats himself on the back for being clarevoyent, regardless of the final outcome.

[wxmet]

They definitely could have extended those WSW through the Seattle metro

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Fig 1.
Why people from the local NWS office don't post on our Weather Forum.

One of them posts on a facebook weather group 

[OysterPrintout]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Fig 1.
Why people from the local NWS office don't post on our Weather Forum.

"what are these morons even THINKING?" I write, while thumbing through the snowfall totals of the 18z 12k NAM on my phone during a work meeting

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said:

The maps have shown more than that. Hopefully the next runs can prove we can get some

Yeah that means I get possibly a slight dusting if I’m lucky...Which could end up being the case. February 2014 all over again!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z RGEM made a little bit of a move further north vs it's 12z run for Thursday's storm.

Here's a trend gif since 06z run...

I like it!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS going with 31 PDX, 33 SLE, 35 EUG on Friday. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z RGEM made a little bit of a move further north vs it's 12z run for Thursday's storm.

Here's a trend gif since 06z run...

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know of one who is in one of the local Wx FB groups, he gets mocked pretty mercilessly in there. 

HOw DArE yOU NoT PReDiCT 10” OF SNOw! 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah that means I get possibly a slight dusting if I’m lucky...Which could end up being the case. February 2014 all over again!

What are you looking at? It looks good for your area. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m pretty sure most people south of Everett will get at least a little something...but probably only like trace-1” north of Seattle/Bremerton line. Seattle will probably get 1-2” is my guess. 

I see Seattle  @ 8-10 at the end of this. Most of the models show them scoring. 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah RGEM is another deal breaker for Portland. 18z Euro will drop the hammer on the coffin nail shortly.

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

The maps have shown more than that. Hopefully the next runs can prove we can get some

Definitely. Like wxmet said...could be a WSW through Seattle metro too. They could be waiting to see the trends on northern extent of the precip shield before issuing it and may do so later. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

I think the line is going to be Kent or south for anything that is more than the garden variety storm. Everett and north may see an inch or two, but there is a lot of dry air to fight for both systems. Pretty sure there will be a snow hole over Tacoma as the Narrows Bridge will soak up most of the available moisture.

Yeah they could be cutting back totals east of the sound based off of east winds as well. We will see. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah RGEM is another deal breaker for Portland. 18z Euro will drop the hammer on the coffin nail shortly.

Looking forward to the 00z GFSv16. 

[MWG]

Welp I jinxed it about been sunny and low 50's here. Ended up to be 48 and cloudy all day. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

What are you looking at? It looks good for your area. 

I was just going off of Tacoma’s post! Though many maps show me in various shades of grey...Unacceptable!!!