February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[MossMan]

47 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Snow subsides by Friday morning for Puget Sound at which point, depending on which ratio you use, 5-10+ inches has fallen from Everett southward and the next storm is about to move in.

Needs to move a notch more to the north. 

[SalemDuck]

GFS v16 is back and has Florence and Coos Bay landfalls for the two systems. It buries Olympia to Salem. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The good news is it is extremely unlikely next year will be a Nino. 

Nothing else has exactly worked out for us recently though. Weak Ninas are still okay but for how much longer!?

[OysterPrintout]

You guys really think we're gonna get off that easy and you won't see at least a few more runs that have a bit more of a southerly solution? Get outta here.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

lol at this rate we won't get another snowstorm period in 25 years.... likely not but it sucks to be so close yet so far.

I find it hard to believe there will be nothing between 2" and 20" in Portland 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

January was last month.  You now have to wait until August to lament our January futility or fire up the unbridled optimism that we’re about to turn the corner.  Thanks in advance.  

1948-49 redux incoming. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Maybe? I think there's a really decent shot at 40s on Friday, honestly. 18z NAM has that westerly surge popping us up to 41, even amidst its dementedly cold output. Thursday is probably our best chance with precip moving in early in the day, but I'm thinking PDX will be there in the AM hours.

At this point I’d rather it remain intact, but I know better than to get all giddy about the NAM and its nammyness.

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Such a weenie take. 2017 was amazing and you may not get another snowstorm like that in the next 35 years.

I know both storms that Jan were multi decadal events. Medford broke a 24 hour snowfall record I believe in ours.

[jakerepp]

16 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Definitely was a cool storm but I'm sure it pales in comparison to the February 2019 storms up there.

There wasn't a single day that produced more than 6-8'' for me in February 2019, and my totals for the month were probably about 20''. 

Maybe Port Angeles can best that, but I don't think anyone in the central-north sound did that well from a single storm. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

You guys really think we're gonna get off that easy and you won't see at least a few more runs that have a bit more of a southerly solution? Get outta here.

Justin needs this.  He’ll be better tomorrow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nothing else has exactly worked out for us recently though. Weak Ninas are still okay but for how much longer!?

The only other winter in the 10 I have been up here for, that compares at all to this one so far is 2014-15, and we had more hard freezes to this point that winter. We have been lucky to have about 10" of snow so far, way below average, but with how mild it has been and that at no point during any of those snow events was it below 32, I will take it. For as bad as this winter has been that has been the one silver lining, all it will take is for one March trough and we will beat our 2013-14 snow total. Except that winter we bottomed out with a 21/2 day in December, and 23/13 in February. 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Justin needs this.  He’ll be better tomorrow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

GFS v16 is back and has Florence and Coos Bay landfalls for the two systems. It buries Olympia to Salem. 

Please allow me to cherry pick this one. 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Justin needs this.  He’ll be better tomorrow. 

Moving on up the ladder!

 

[Deweydog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Please allow me to cherry pick this one. 

Salem the big winner... AGAIN.

#january2021

[TacomaWaWx]

13 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Such a weenie take. 2017 was amazing and you may not get another snowstorm like that in the next 35 years.

1/10/17 was very comparable to February 2019 up this way. Got pretty similar totals except it happened in a much shorter time period.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The only other winter in the 10 I have been up here for, that compares at all to this one so far is 2014-15, and we had more hard freezes to this point that winter. We have been lucky to have about 10" of snow so far, way below average, but with how mild it has been and that at no point during any of those snow events was it below 32, I will take it. For as bad as this winter has been that has been the one silver lining, all it will take is for one March trough and we will beat our 2013-14 snow total. Except that winter we bottomed out with a 21/2 day in December, and 23/13 in February. 

I've come to appreciate dry cold and even run-of-the-mill chill a lot more after the past couple winters. Just having frost lying around and pretending it was a really light arctic front helps moods!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The low will either make landfall near the Columbia or vancuver island lol.

[Deweydog]

Silver Star looks a helluva lot more wintry today compared to the last sunny day.

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Pretty sure there is serious doubt in that the cold air moves in as modeled that that lows land anywhere south of Neah Bay. I don’t blame them for waiting and we all know that there is a chance that this just turns into a Whatcom County special. Maybe unlikely at this point, but a non zero chance.

lol take your cancelled winter to a warmer climate like Florida or something. A place that doesn't really experience winter then you can cancel it all year round! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Needs to move a notch more to the north. 

And I would not be surprised if it does.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The low will either make landfall near the Columbia or vancuver island lol.

Great anal

 

 

 

ysis.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And I would not be surprised if it does.

Probably will but I highly doubt it moves too much farther north than it is now. Systems later this weekend are probably your best bet. 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I've come to appreciate dry cold and even run-of-the-mill chill a lot more after the past couple winters. Just having frost lying around and pretending it was a really light arctic front helps moods!

I’ve found myself being pretty excited at the prospect of a day that might not make it above 45. Wintery. Chilly!

[MossMan]

35 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Unfortunately, amidst the horror it’s one of the nicest days this year. If you don’t stand still too long in the sun you could reasonably convince yourself it’s a crisp mid winter day.

That sun feels powerful today. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Probably will but I highly doubt it moves too much farther north than it is now. Systems later this weekend are probably your best bet. 

You have more faith in model accuracy than I do.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

You have more faith in model accuracy than I do.

We’re within 48 hours now not foreseeing any crazy shifts IMO.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That sun feels powerful today. 

Nov 1st sun angle

[Requiem]

Ok, gonna hold out some hope for a few flurries, we'll see what happens. Fourth stage of grief is acceptance I guess.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

Nov 1st sun angle

Good thing to keep things in perspective. Coming out of summer the sun feels very weak at that point.

[RentonHill]

[MWG]

36 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Hey Rob EPS still looks good for you

Nice I see some colors later in the month.

[Timmy Supercell]

9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol take your cancelled winter to a warmer climate like Florida or something. A place that doesn't really experience winter then you can cancel it all year round! 

It's one season 11 months out of the year if not all twelve of 'em 

[SouthHillFrosty]

47 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Looking ahead to Monday. @SouthHillFrosty didn't you mention something about it if it went further south?

The 12z Euro on Saturday had this. It went further south and brought down more cold air. Hmmm

Yup I did! Sorry I was in a meeting. If we get on the northern side of the low, that would help

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Slightly south? 

[RentonHill]

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Good thing to keep things in perspective. Coming out of summer the sun feels very weak at that point.

It feels like January is a summer month these days.

[Deweydog]

Haha.

[TacomaWaWx]

Lot better for PDX this run. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Lot better for PDX this run. 

Winter uncancel for Requiem!