BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Pretty sure there were some 3K NAM maps in February 2017 that showed 18-24" totals across most of NW Oregon and SW Washington. That was an isothermal situation of course, where the models tend to struggle just a wee bit more. With the ratios this go around, someone could legitimately see some eye popping numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Remnants of the snowman my Nephew built last Wednesday. What’s your nephew’s take on the models??? My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, nwsnow said: The kiss of death. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Portland OR 251 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021 ORZ006-WAZ039-101400- /O.NEW.KPQR.WS.A.0002.210211T2000Z-210212T2000Z/ Greater Portland Metro Area-Greater Vancouver Area- Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy 251 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 6 inches possible. Occasional light freezing rain or sleet is possible, mainly to the west and south of Portland Thursday afternoon into early evening. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, with strongest winds east of Interstate 205 towards the Columbia Gorge. * WHERE...In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area. In Oregon, Greater Portland Metro Area. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow-covered roads. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will decrease later Thursday night. Cold temperatures in the 20s with breezy east winds will create low wind chills across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We could easily see 15 to 1 ratios with this event. That could result is some really amazing totals. If this pans out one might be tempted to think the weather has remembered how to snow here gain. It's like we're going back to the late-1800's again Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabbitbarf Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Can someone tell me exactly how much snow will accumulate in the denny triangle area of downtown seattle. Specifically on the blocks of Boren and Stewart if you can /s 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 If these models come close to verifying I hope everyone has their snowboards handy so we get some accurate measurements of snow. 4 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Not sure if it was already posted but the 18z ICON looked pretty nice. I can spot a tiny hole around my area, probably due to east winds. Some models are showing that eating away at our snow, unfortunately. I'm hoping we can make up for it with some nice blowing snow due to our 40 mph E wind gusts and (hopefully) healthy precip rates on Saturday. Don't remember the last time I experienced whiteout/blizzard-like conditions. I like this map...Not many I can like right now unfortunately. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, rabbitbarf said: Can someone tell me exactly how much snow will accumulate in the denny triangle area of downtown seattle. Specifically on the blocks of Boren and Stewart if you can /s You could get 2-20 inches. Most likely 8-10 inches!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, dolt said: WSW for the Southern Valley now for ice. I'm definitely getting that vodka today. Ask for Oregon Springs brand 1 1 1 Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Portland NWS just embarrassed themselves with these ludicrous WSW that have no chance of verifying. They must be riding the parallel GFS. 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, rabbitbarf said: Can someone tell me exactly how much snow will accumulate in the denny triangle area of downtown seattle. Specifically on the blocks of Boren and Stewart if you can /s Probably a couple inches with the first storm on Thursday...probably a few with the storm this weekend but still more uncertainty with that one than the Thursday storm. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Portland NWS just embarrassed themselves with these ludicrous WSW that have no chance of verifying. They must be riding the parallel GFS. I F^uck with Portland's energy. Seattle barely even issued one for SPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 41/36 spread today. High temps have been getting cooler and cooler each day! Probably will improve on that low temp before midnight as well. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Reading the AFD from PDX it seems they think precip will be mostly snow except for the South Valley on Saturday. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 What’s great about electric cars is they can charge your iPhone hundreds of times in a power outage, assuming you charged it up to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Nice trough on the long range GFS. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khoine Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 No snow for Kitsap or Seattle sorry folks NWS knows best. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Where is TWL? Haven't seen him post in awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Khoine said: No snow for Kitsap or Seattle sorry folks NWS knows best. I’m pretty sure most people south of Everett will get at least a little something...but probably only like trace-1” north of Seattle/Bremerton line. Seattle will probably get 1-2” is my guess. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: I’m pretty sure most people south of Everett will get at least a little something...but probably only like trace-1” north of Seattle/Bremerton line. Seattle will probably get 1-2” is my guess. The maps have shown more than that. Hopefully the next runs can prove we can get some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, iFred said: Fig 1. Why people from the local NWS office don't post on our Weather Forum. I know of one who is in one of the local Wx FB groups, he gets mocked pretty mercilessly in there. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just heard the quickie weather report after traffic on 97.3 Kiro FM...”Spotty snow showers through the weekend that will not amount to much of anything” 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khoine Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 This has turned into non event for Seattle area. NWS says rain snow mix through Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, iFred said: Fig 1. Why people from the local NWS office don't post on our Weather Forum. And his subsequent posts will undoubtedly be ones where he pats himself on the back for being clarevoyent, regardless of the final outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 They definitely could have extended those WSW through the Seattle metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, iFred said: Fig 1. Why people from the local NWS office don't post on our Weather Forum. One of them posts on a facebook weather group Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, iFred said: Fig 1. Why people from the local NWS office don't post on our Weather Forum. "what are these morons even THINKING?" I write, while thumbing through the snowfall totals of the 18z 12k NAM on my phone during a work meeting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said: The maps have shown more than that. Hopefully the next runs can prove we can get some Yeah that means I get possibly a slight dusting if I’m lucky...Which could end up being the case. February 2014 all over again! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z RGEM made a little bit of a move further north vs it's 12z run for Thursday's storm. Here's a trend gif since 06z run... I like it!! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 NWS going with 31 PDX, 33 SLE, 35 EUG on Friday. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z RGEM made a little bit of a move further north vs it's 12z run for Thursday's storm. Here's a trend gif since 06z run... 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I know of one who is in one of the local Wx FB groups, he gets mocked pretty mercilessly in there. HOw DArE yOU NoT PReDiCT 10” OF SNOw! Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Yeah that means I get possibly a slight dusting if I’m lucky...Which could end up being the case. February 2014 all over again! What are you looking at? It looks good for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I’m pretty sure most people south of Everett will get at least a little something...but probably only like trace-1” north of Seattle/Bremerton line. Seattle will probably get 1-2” is my guess. I see Seattle @ 8-10 at the end of this. Most of the models show them scoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Yeah RGEM is another deal breaker for Portland. 18z Euro will drop the hammer on the coffin nail shortly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: The maps have shown more than that. Hopefully the next runs can prove we can get some Definitely. Like wxmet said...could be a WSW through Seattle metro too. They could be waiting to see the trends on northern extent of the precip shield before issuing it and may do so later. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, iFred said: I think the line is going to be Kent or south for anything that is more than the garden variety storm. Everett and north may see an inch or two, but there is a lot of dry air to fight for both systems. Pretty sure there will be a snow hole over Tacoma as the Narrows Bridge will soak up most of the available moisture. Yeah they could be cutting back totals east of the sound based off of east winds as well. We will see. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah RGEM is another deal breaker for Portland. 18z Euro will drop the hammer on the coffin nail shortly. Looking forward to the 00z GFSv16. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Welp I jinxed it about been sunny and low 50's here. Ended up to be 48 and cloudy all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: What are you looking at? It looks good for your area. I was just going off of Tacoma’s post! Though many maps show me in various shades of grey...Unacceptable!!! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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